Yahoo DFS Football: Week 8 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 8 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ, $26)

With six teams on bye and another game in London, Week 8 provides us with only 22 starting quarterbacks (11 games) to choose from. The cream is slowly rising, with many of this week's most consistent options bunched up at the top of the salary scale. Geno Smith received his opportunity last week but tore his ACL and is out for the season. Back in the mix is veteran Fitzpatrick, who recently blasted his coaches and front office for not believing in him. Fitz has been awful this year, throwing 11 interceptions in six games (five losses), but should be fired up for his Week 8 matchup following his outburst last week. There's no better spot for a rebound than a date with the Browns, who look like the worst passing defense in football (recently taking over from the Jets in that department). The Browns have given up a league-high 18 passing touchdowns and are tied with the Panthers for a league-worst 8.6 YPA. Last week, they were abused for 252 combined yards and two touchdowns by Bengals' receivers A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell. The Jets are in a must-win spot at home, and wideout Brandon Marshall will likely be the apple of Fitzpatrick's eye Sunday. Best of all, Fitz is reasonably priced at $26. Fitzpatrick may end up as a cash game play too as we get closer to the weekend, due to his salary and matchup. Pairing Fitz with Marshall or Quincy Enunwa is a decent way to start building lineups in Week 8.

LeGarrette Blount (NE, $22)

It's a tough week for running backs. The mid and lower tier options appear limited, and it's hard to throw together a decent roster if you're paying up for the likes of David Johnson ($42) and/or Ezekiel Elliot ($38). Spencer Ware looks like a 'safe' cash game play again given his matchup with a porous Colts front seven, but he received a significant pay raise this week on Yahoo! DFS, up $7 from last week. Blount hit on his second two-touchdown game of the season last week yet remains affordable despite what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Bills. The Bills' run defense had been solid through the first few weeks until it was shredded by Dolphins back Jay Ajayi for 214 yards on 28 carries. The Patriots opened as four point favorites, but the line has since moved up to 6.5. Blount is always worthy of our consideration anytime the Patriots are favored by around a touchdown. A date with their division rivals on the road is no exception. Blount is averaging four red zone looks per game this season, and is tied with Devonta Freeman with 28 on the season, which is the fifth-highest mark among running backs behind David Johnson (39), Melvin Gordon (38), DeMarco Murray (34) and Todd Gurley (30). More than half of those (15) have come over the last three games – all games Tom Brady has started. Since Blount does not partake often in the passing game, much of his value is derived from those touchdowns. Nevertheless, Blount is grossly underpriced and we should expect the Patriots to provide him with a few more carries in the red zone this week.

Tyrell Williams (SD, $14)

Williams had the best yardage output of his career against the Falcons last week, catching seven of 10 targets for 140 yards. Williams is quickly establishing himself as Philip Rivers' first read in this passing offense, leading the team in targets since Week 2. Last week's strong performance will certainly raise his Week 8 ownership share, but a matchup with the Broncos' stingy secondary will keep that percentage reasonable. Williams was a non-factor in the first Chargers-Broncos tilt two weeks ago, as he managed just three catches on 28 yards. Any receiver against the Broncos quickly gets pulled out of cash game status and dropped into the GPP bucket. But the extreme price drop to a meager $14 makes him a very intriguing option this week, as he wouldn't have to go bonkers to pay off that tag. Moreover, Williams lines up primarily on the left side of the field, where he will get the chance to run at the Broncos secondary's weak link, Bradley Roby. Roby is not horrible but is graded among the bottom 20 percent of cornerbacks, and it's most conceivably the side Rivers will attack. Williams has made a name for himself this season as an every-week starter in season-long leagues, and is simply too cheap to ignore despite the daunting matchup on paper.

Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Russell Wilson (SEA, $31), Carson Palmer (ARI, $29)
RB: Devonta Freeman (ATL, $26), Isaiah Crowell (CLE, $20), Matt Asiata (MIN, $15)
WR: Stefon Diggs (MIN, $21), Alshon Jeffery (CHI, $21), Dez Bryant (DAL, $20), Chris Hogan (NE, $13)
TE: Gary Barnidge (CLE, $16), Zach Ertz (PHI, $15)
DST: New York Jets ($13)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (GB, $37)

Matt Ryan is expected to be the most popular quarterback for cash games this week, but it behooves us to look at the other side of this game, especially coming off Rodgers' impressive bounceback performance in Week 7. Rodgers surpassed the 300-yard passing mark for the first time this season, throwing three touchdown passes on his way to 23.74 fantasy points. Rodgers was mistake-free against the Bears on Thursday night after throwing three picks in his two previous outings. The Falcons-Packers game comes in at a whopping 52.5 projected total – the only game slotted for over 50 combined, and the one most DFS players will look to first. Eddie Lacy is out for the season, undrafted rookie Don Jackson is nursing an injured hand and Knile Davis is still learning the offense (and frankly, is not that good). That leaves wideout Ty Montgomery as the team's likely leader in carries in Week 8, perhaps foreshadowing a heavy passing day in what may be a shootout in Green Bay. Rodgers has a bevy of weapons at his disposal between Davante Adams (13 catches last week) plus veterans Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson. Nelson feels due for a rebound game, but has failed to truly separate from opposition corners over the last few weeks. He will likely avoid beastly corner Desmond Trufant since he runs from the right side on most plays, but Robert Alford is highly graded and is certainly no slouch. The matchup still lines up well for Rodgers, and he's the perfect pivot from Ryan if you truly need the $3 in salary relief. For cash games, it may be wise to run Rodgers out there 'naked' (not pairing him with a receiver) as the weekly receiver production from Green Bay is tough to predict, though pairing him with WR-turned-RB Montgomery is probably a wise move this week.

Running Backs

Spencer Ware (KC, $30)

Ware is the premier option as our RB1 in cash games again this week given his reasonable salary and the fact that the Chiefs remain cautious with Jamaal Charles, especially given the recent flare-up with his knee. Charles lined up on just two offensive snaps last week as Ware barreled his way to 77 yards on 17 carries (4.5 yards per clip). Ware also caught two balls for 54 yards, one of which was a 46-yard catch-and-run for a TD with four minutes to go in the first quarter. Ware lines up for another groovy matchup, this time against a Colts squad serving up 118.6 rushing yards and one rushing TD per game. The Colts have allowed backs to hit the century mark rushing-wise in each of the last three weeks – Jordan Howard (16-118) in Week 5, Lamar Miller (24-149-1) in Week 6 and DeMarco Murray (25-107-1) last week. Ware will be heavily involved and relied upon even if Charles suits up this week. There's no such thing as a 'free square' when it comes to fantasy football and DFS, but this week, Ware is as close as it gets.

Matt Forte (NYJ, $21)

Forte rose from the virtually dead last week, hitting the 100-yard rushing mark on a whopping 30 carries against a stout Ravens' run defense. It's identical to his 30-100 from Week 2 against an equally stingy unit (the Bills), though Forte also kicked in 54 receiving yards on four receptions and hit paydirt twice last week. All in all, it was 27.4 fantasy points for the extremely low percentage of Yahoo DFS'ers who went against the grain and put him in their lineups. Forte did not see much of a price adjustment this week and should be locked into cash game lineups in a Week 8 matchup against a Browns rush defense that was just obliterated to the tune of 271 yards on 30 carries, including an impressive rebound from Jeremy Hill, who came out of the doldrums to run for 168 yards on just nine carries. Though the Jets are on the road they are favored by slightly under a field goal, and Forte should be heavily involved through all four quarters. The $21 salary offers much in the way of cap savings to get your Ryan-Julio combos in while still fielding a competitive squad with no holes.

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones (ATL, $39)

Jones is featured in this spot for the second consecutive week. He's a clear cut cash game set-and-forget in a tier of his own, with Antonio Brown on bye and A.J. Green off the main slate (yet another London game). Jones earned every dollar of his salary last week, catching nine of 15 balls for 174 yards, but it was missing the extra six points and touchdown celebration we would have wanted. Jones has a fabulous matchup against the Packers in what will be the only game with a projected total above 50 and what is expected to be a shoot out. He is also back home in the Georgia Dome, where he has either scored a touchdown or surpassed the 100-yard mark in all three of his outings this season, including his incredible 300-yard performance against the Panthers in Week 4. It may be of little relevance to the game at hand, but the last time these two teams faced each other (December 2014), Julio posted 259 yards on 11 receptions and a touchdown. The Packers' best corner, Sam Shields, was officially placed on injured reserve last week and has only appeared in one game this year. That once again leaves Ladarius Gunter and Damarious Randall to handle each side against Julio and fellow wideout Mohamed Sanu. Gunter is the better of the two and will do his best to curtail Jones on most of his routes, but he stands no real chance against one of the league's premier receivers. Jones will be a chalky play yet again this week and will be incredibly tough to fade in both cash games and GPPs.

Brandon Marshall (NYJ, $31)

Marshall pairs up nicely with an affordable Fitzpatrick or as a one-off play in cash games if you prefer a higher floor quarterback like Ryan, Brady or Rodgers and can work with the salary puzzle. Marshall underwhelmed last week (39 yards, three receptions on eight targets) and posted a mediocre 3-70 line the week prior. Nevertheless, Marshall still ranks eighth in the league with 68 targets, and target volume is the first place we should look when considering cash game wideouts. With a fired up Fitz in a great matchup against a bottom-ranked Browns secondary, Marshall is in a good spot for a rebound performance.

Ty Montgomery (GB, $15)

Rolling with Montgomery this week is essentially running with the pack (no pun intended), as he is very likely to be the highest-owned wide receiver in Week 8 cash games and tourneys. Montgomery has been the talk of roto town this week due to his new his multi-eligibility designation in certain formats, following his usage as a running back against the Bears last Thursday. Montgomery didn't find the end zone last week but did contribute both on the ground and through the air, running the ball nine times for 60 yards (one of those carries for 30 yards) and catching 10 of 13 targets for another 66 yards. That type of usage makes it difficult to avoid him, especially in a game with a very high projected total.

Tight Ends

Jimmy Graham (SEA, $22)

Everyone loves a good narrative, especially in daily fantasy. They don't always work out the way we want them to, but Graham has quickly become a key cog in the Seahawks' passing offense and will be chomping at the bit to trounce his former team, the New Orleans Saints. Graham ranks seventh among tight ends with 42 targets despite a Week 5 bye and just one target in Week 1. He ranks third in targets behind Greg Olsen and Dennis Pitta since Week 3 and is second in receiving yards (408) at the position behind Greg Olsen's 610 despite only getting into the end zone once this season. The Saints have only allowed two tight ends to score on them this season and even rendered Travis Kelce useless last weekend (2-24). They did allowe 90 yards on four catches to Greg Olsen in Week 6 though, plus 61 yards and a score to rookie Hunter Henry the prior week, but did not face a team with a noteworthy tight end in their first three games. The matchup and assumed motivation makes Graham a strong play for us this week as a more affordable alternative to Gronk.

Defense/Special Teams

New England Patriots ($16)

Cap space feels tighter than ever before this week. Filling a lineup with several of the chalky options above almost necessitates a couple of minimum salary picks, possibly at WR3 and Flex. DST is always a good spot for us to search for value, especially with many of the league's top defenses now priced at or around the 20 dollar mark. To make matters worse, Week 8 appears to be the toughest week to find value at the position. The New York Jets ($13) will be a popular play this week despite their road matchup. If you have the extra dough though, definitely give some consideration to the Patriots. They are in a road matchup against a division rival that plays better football at home, but with LeSean McCoy still dealing with an injured hamstring and possibly inactive, Tyrod Taylor will be forced to air it out more frequently (that's likely true even if McCoy is active, since he won't be 100 percent). Given Taylor's deep ball tendencies and McCoy's possible absence, the probability of an interception rises slightly. The Pats haven't exactly racked up the sacks this year (1.7 per game) and have yet to take an errant pass to the house, but they've intercepted opposition quarterbacks on five occasions and have four fumble recoveries. This matchup sets up as a grind-em-out defensive battle. Given the lack of viable options this week, taking the Patriots this week seems like one of the better bets.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Matt Ryan (ATL, $40), Tom Brady (NE, $37)
RB: Christine Michael (SEA, $28), Devontae Booker (DEN, $16), Jacquizz Rodgers (TB, $26) – if Doug Martin is out again
WR: Terrelle Pryor (CLE, $29), Doug Baldwin (SEA, $28), Demaryius Thomas (DEN, $25), Quincy Enunwa (NYJ, $21) – Mike Evans and T.Y. Hilton are also obvious choices, but expensive
TE: Rob Gronkowski (NE, $27), Jack Doyle (IND, $16)
DEF: Minnesota Vikings ($22)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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