Yahoo DFS Football: Week 9 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 9 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.

Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.

Overview: With six teams on bye and just 11 games on the slate, it feels like a week to lock in Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Rodgers and just work around them. The masses will be heavy on the Packers-Colts and that 54 projected total. Hence, properly projecting game flow and guessing correctly on the players that will impact the scoring can be the difference between a min-cash or taking down a GPP. It's important to start your research early to have a feel for a specific week's player pool and salaries, but we should always be careful to not lock ourselves into anyone until injury reports are out and we have a sense for how certain games might flow based on how a team may be impacted by inactive players. It's especially helpful in terms of roster construction. Finding out that a $35 LeSean McCoy is hurt and may or may not play, then having to pivot to a $12 Mike Gillislee can turn everything upside down if you don't have other players at each price point that you're considering. Be sure to always break down every game on the slate to identify potential pieces of each offense that you want to consider. Once the picture is clearer following injury reports and other tidbits you pick up along the way, only then can you start building your DFS Picasso.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

Case Keenum (LA, $22)

What a way to start a list of recommended plays. You're probably wondering what type of alternate universe this is where Keenum gets his very own write-up. In tournaments, we're looking for the best points-per-dollar plays, and in Week 9, one of the best on the board is the ultra-affordable Rams' signal-caller. The Rams are fresh off their bye and facing a Panthers' secondary that was torched for 363 passing yards and three touchdowns by Carson Palmer in Week 8. The Panthers have permitted 16 passing touchdowns on the season, and their 8.5 yards per attempt allowed is the league's worst mark. Keenum is coming off his worst start of the year (four interceptions against the Giants in London) but threw three touchdown passes against the Lions in the previous week. It all comes down to the matchup. The Rams are at home and running back Todd Gurley will have a tough time edging out extra yards. It's very possible that the Panthers get out to an early lead, forcing Keenum to air it out. His WR corps of Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt and Brian Quick is not too shabby and have advantageous matchups against the Panthers' middling corners. Keenum is a below-average quarterback, but if you're looking to load up on safer options at RB and WR, he's a nice, affordable fit in Week 9.

Stefon Diggs (MIN, $22)

With so many mid-range options at wide receiver this week, it's hard to imagine Diggs being a popular cash game play, especially given quarterback Sam Bradford's struggles against the Bears on Monday Night Football. Diggs was the lone bright spot for Minnesota in that game. He was peppered with 13 targets, catching eight of them for 76 yards and a touchdown. He is one of the most dynamic young wideouts in the league, and is clearly Bradford's go-to option down the middle of the field. Diggs appears to be fully healthy and lines up for a terrific matchup against a Lions' secondary that is tied with the Browns and Falcons for the most passing touchdowns allowed on the season (19).

Jimmy Graham (SEA, $21)

Off-the-radar running backs are tough to come by this week, hence the tight end recommendation in this spot. Week 9 season-long waiver wire additions Tim Hightower ($14) and Charcandrick West ($19) will help with getting under the cap this week, but otherwise the pickings are slim at RB under $25. We will likely see huge ownership shares on Ezekiel Elliott ($39) and Le'Veon Bell ($37) despite their hefty tags. With Mike Evans and Julio Jones playing Thursday and A.J. Green on bye, the main slate does not offer much in terms of expensive wideouts in Week 9. Moreover, there are plenty of worthy mid-range options at WR this week. Graham is an interesting contrarian play this week in a Monday night hammer situation. The Seahawks' offense has been sputtering over the last few weeks, and a date with the Bills defense is anything but an easy spot. Graham is coming off a letdown performance. He was supposed to have a field day against his former team, yet managed a paltry 34 yards on three catches. With Greg Olsen ($27) likely the cash game go-to and Kyle Rudolph ($21) lining up to face the tight-end friendly Lions, Graham could very easily be under-owned in Week 9. Graham has seen the third-most targets (41) since Week 3 among tight ends and ranks third behind only Greg Olsen and Rob Gronkowski in TE receiving yards. Graham saw two red zone targets against the Saints last week and should be Russell Wilson's primary option down there once again this week. Look for Graham to make up for last week's stinker and get into the end zone for just the second time this season.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Ryan Tannehill (MIA, $29), Joe Flacco (BAL, $27)
RB: Theo Riddick (DET, $17), Rashad Jennings (NYG, $15)
WR: Allen Robinson (JAX, $25), DeVante Parker (MIA, $19), Rishard Matthews (TEN, $14), Quinton Patton (SF, $10)
TE: Lance Kendricks (LA, $14)
DST: Oakland Raiders ($11)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers (GB, $38)

Rodgers appears to be well off the schneid, connecting for seven passing touchdowns and 572 yards over his last two outings. He still ranks third in passing touchdowns behind Matt Ryan (19) and Drew Brees (18), but both Brees and Rodgers have played one less game due to bye weeks. With Eddie Lacy on injured reserve and virtually no running game to speak of, Rodgers is the clear, bona fide cash game QB in a game with a whopping 54 points projected – the highest of the season thus far. Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb should both be ready for the Colts this weekend, adding to the already dangerous receiving duo of Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams. Rodgers should be worth every penny this week, and is the guy we need to build cash game lineups around. The Colts are one of the league's worst defenses, but Andrew Luck and company should be able to put some points up and keep Rodgers moving at full throttle with his pass attack for most of the game.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, $39)

Elliott needs only a few words here. He is arguably the league's most valuable player and a major reason why the Cowboys have been the NFC's best team. Elliott leads the league in rushing yards (799) and is third behind LeSean McCoy and Jordan Howard in yards per carry (5.0). He's been a steadfast workhorse, ranking fourth in rushing attempt (159) behind Melvin Gordon, LeGarrette Blount and DeMarco Murray. Per ProFootballFocus, 90 of Elliott's 96 rushing yards against a stout Eagles' run defense last week came after contact. It only helps matters this week that the Browns are the 30th-ranked defense against the run according to DVOA. Elliott is in line for a monster outing, and could approach the 200-yard mark for the first time in his young career.

Tim Hightower (NO, $14) / Charcandrick West (KC, $19)

Both running backs are listed as West would automatically fall out of cash game consideration if Spencer Ware is miraculously cleared to play. Jamaal Charles is officially out for the season and Ware failed the second portion of his concussion testing Monday, so West will likely be in line for a heavy workload against the Jaguars on Sunday. The Jags rank middle of the pack in rushing yards against, but have allowed at least one rushing score in every game this season. Hightower was a fantasy playoff MVP last season, averaging 87 yards and a touchdown from Weeks 14 through 16, and he stepped in admirably against the Seahawks last week after Mark Ingram was benched following his second fumble in two games. Hightower carried the ball 26 times for 102 yards and was one of only four backs to hit the century mark in Week 8. He has earned more playing time going forward and is expected to work in a committee with Mark Ingram, at least in the short term. That sets up well for a Week 9 matchup against the 49ers, the league's worst rush defense. Hightower is in play even with shared carries because of the matchup, and an affordable $14 tag is too good to pass up. A Hightower-West-Elliott troika is in play this week if you plug one of them in at the flex.

Wide Receivers

Jarvis Landry (MIA, $30)

Landry is the fifth-priciest receiver on the slate, but that's the price you pay for consistency at an otherwise volatile position. He has caught at least seven balls in five of his seven games and has topped double-digit fantasy points four times this season. The lone knock on Landry is how infrequently he gets into the end zone (just one touchdown this season). Nice and rested following the Dolphins' bye week, the Tannehill-Landry combo is a good one in Week 9, as they take on a Jets' secondary that has been absolutely ravaged this season. The Jets allow a league-worst 289 passing yards per game and rank 31st in DVOA against the pass. Landry will be even more valuable this week if he gets to square off with poorly-graded slot cornerback Darryl Roberts instead of Buster Skrine (knee injury). Playing the game of guessing receiving touchdowns is a slippery slope, but Landry is overdue to cross the goal line this week. An 8-120-1 line will treat us just fine.

Davante Adams (GB, $24)

If Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery are active this week, figuring out where the production will come from on the Packers side of the ball could be akin to a game of pin the tail on the donkey (for those who still play that). Based on quotes over the last couple of years, what we do know is that Davante Adams has always had a piece of Aaron Rodgers' heart. Based on the last couple of weeks, it's clear that Adams has his trust as well. Adams leads the NFL in targets (30) and receptions (25) over the last two weeks. Season-long players expected big things from Adams last season, taking him as high as the third round of fantasy drafts in 2015. But it was an all-around disappointing season overshadowed by a handful of costly drops in highly-profile stand-alone games. A collegiate stud who took Derek Carr passes frequently to the house at Fresno State, Adams is a great athlete who is quickly making a name for himself in the NFL. The $24 price point is much too low for a heavily-targeted receiver of Aaron Rodgers' in a game that is projected to be a shootout (54 point projected total). He will be a popular cash game option in Week 9.

Donte Moncrief (IND, $16)

Moncrief returned to the field last week for the first time since Week 2 and found his way into the end zone against the Chiefs. He caught just four balls for 41 yards, but saw a team-high nine targets with fellow wideout T.Y. Hilton missing a chunk of the game and clearly hampered by a hamstring injury. The Week 9 matchup hould play out well for Moncrief, especially if Hilton is not at full strength. Last season, Moncrief had a strong first half (five TDs in his first seven games) but managed just one score over his final nine. It's worth noting that Andrew Luck played in just two of those nine games and that Luck and Moncrief have connected on at least one touchdown pass in seven of the 11 games they've played together since the beginning of last season. Most importantly, Moncrief's $16 price sticks out like a sore thumb. He's one of the easiest plays on the board this week.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce (KC, $19)

Kelce has always been more tease than please and for all we know, that may be the case with his reality television show as well (forgive me, but I won't watch that). Kelce hovers around TE10 in season-long fantasy production and is one of those guys who is incredibly tough to time correctly in DFS. Last week, Kelce came through with his first 100-plus yard outing of the season and his first since Week 1 of the 2015 season. In fact, it's only his third career game where he has accumulated over 100 yards. That's unacceptable for a guy described as 'Gronkian'. There's no doubt about Kelce's talent, but he was used in Andy Reid's offense improperly last season and still has game-manager Alex Smith throwing passes to him each week. A home matchup with the Jags seems like a good spot as any to go back to the well, especially since Gronk himself is on bye and not available on the slate. Priced under Jack Doyle and at the same price as Coby Fleener, we're staring at an algorithm miscalculation we should probably exploit. The fact that Nick Foles is going to start for the Chiefs this week only raises Kelce's upside.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs ($19)

It looks like the Chiefs have received a fair amount of love in this piece between Kelce and West. What we've yet to discuss is the sexiest part of this lineup – their defense and special teams. The Chiefs lead the league in interceptions (11), and defensive back Marcus Peters is Billy the Kid incarnate, robbing opposing quarterbacks for a league-high five interceptions. They've surpassed 10 fantasy points in four of seven games including a 35-point whopper against the Jets in Week 3. The Vikings ($20) are certainly in play as they are every week (well, except for last week!) and the Giants ($14) are back home and off their bye facing a struggling rookie signal-caller in Carson Wentz, who plans on being less conservative this week. The sneaky (and cheap) option worth our attention is the Raiders ($11), who are home against Trevor Siemian in a game I'd expect to go under the projected 44 total. That's if you need the salary savings. Otherwise, home Chiefs against Blake Bortles will be a difficult play to pivot from.

Honorable Mentions
QB: Andrew Luck (IND, $35), Colin Kaepernick (SF, $29)
RB: Le'Veon Bell (PIT, $37), Devontae Booker (DEN, $28), Darren Sproles (PHI, $15)
WR: Jordy Nelson (GB, $27), Dez Bryant (DAL, $25), Ty Montgomery (GB, $20), Tyrell Williams (SD, $21)
TE: Kyle Rudolph (MIN, $22)
DEF: Minnesota Vikings ($20)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Vlad Sedler plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: rotogutguy, DraftKings: rotogut, Yahoo: V_Sedler.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Vlad Sedler
Vlad Sedler covers baseball and football for RotoWire. He is a veteran NFBC player and CDM Hall of Famer, winning the Football Super Challenge in 2013. A native Angeleno, Vlad loves the Dodgers and Kings and is quite possibly the world's only Packers/Raiders fan. You can follow him @RotoGut.
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