This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.
Before jumping headfirst into the whirlwind of fun that is Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football, be sure to differentiate between the variety of games offered. Since Head-to-Heads, 50/50s and Double Ups pay nearly half of entrants, your best bet for cashing is to target players with higher floors. Think heavily targeted No. 1 WRs, RBs who get the bulk of a team's carries, and upper echelon QBs in matchups with a tight Vegas point spread and a high total.
Tournaments / Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs) require a bit more of your inner contrarian. Target offensive players with higher ceilings in advantageous matchups. Huge point totals can come from the most unpredictable of places, and the most obvious plays are not always the right ones. Though previous week's performances should be noted, each new week of action should be considered its own season. Don't chase last week's stats.
Overview
In what seems like the blink of an eye, the regular season just passed us by. So, here we are – Wild Card Weekend. If you're looking to get any errands completed or want to spend non-football related time with your significant other, Saturday afternoon is probably the time to do it. The Raiders-Texans game features rookie Connor Cook making his first career start (in a playoff game, on the road), and the league's worst regular season QB, Brock Osweiler. The game is expected to be a slow-paced, low scoring one (36.5 total) where most DFS options, other than the DSTs, are GPP fliers. The Seahawks are favored by more than a TD, at home, against the Lions. They have struggled with their run game behind a horrendous offensive line, and will have to rely heavily on their quarterback, Russell Wilson. The early Sunday game is the biggest mismatch of the weekend spread-wise, with the Steelers 10-point home favorites against Matt Moore and the Dolphins. We'll likely see many DFS teams with the Ben Roethlisberger-Le'Veon Bell-Antonio Brown trio, though that will be done to the detriment of the remaining roster since cap space is extremely tight this week. Our grand finale features the Giants as 4.5-point road dogs against the red-hot Packers. The game time temperature will likely settle in somewhere below 10 degrees Fahrenheit, though we know that both squads can handle that environment. Odell Beckham should be a popular cash game target this week, more so than Brown, since most will want to build around Bell and may want to spread their exposure to other offenses this week. A four-game slate presents us with a unique puzzle – one that may require some offbeat options to help us win a big GPP.
TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)
Eli Manning (QB, $29)
Manning is certainly no stranger to the playoff limelight, leading the Giants to two championships in his career, though it's been four seasons since Eli and the Giants have been to the playoffs. He had an underwhelming regular season, but the slate is wiped clean and we certainly know he is capable of stepping up to the plate in a competitive setting. The running back duo of veteran Rashad Jennings and rookie Paul Perkins should help set the table Sunday, but ultimately, the Giants' chances of keeping up with the Packers relies upon the duo of Manning and Beckham. Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers may be this weekend's most heavily-owned quarterbacks, but a discounted Manning allows us to build a more well-balanced lineup.
Ty Montgomery (RB, $17)
We're expecting Bell to have an ownership share north of 60 percent in both cash games and GPPs this week. The tough decision is what to do with our RB2. Jay Ajayi, Lamar Miller and Latavius Murray are all priced at $25 or more, and rostering them as our second RB severely hampers our ability to play one of the stud receivers. Montgomery is a bit of a contrarian play this week, since the Giants have a solid run defense and the converted WR has not eclipsed double-digit carries in either of the Packers' last two regular season games. Despite a monster outing against the Bears in Week 15 (16-162-2), Montgomery struggled against the Vikings, and was in on only 35 snaps total against the Lions last week. With the Giants' disciplined cornerbacks doing their best to clamp down on Packers' receivers, he should see his fair share of carries and short passes. Let others be negatively affected by recency bias and consider a lower-percentage Montgomery for GPPs this weekend.
Anquan Boldin (DET, $16)
It would be fair of us to assume that Richard Sherman will be spending much of his time trying to lock down Golden Tate and that DeShawn Shead will do his best to keep up with Marvin Jones. Enter grizzled veteran Anquan Boldin, who should serve as Matthew Stafford's safety valve this Saturday. Boldin spent over 80 percent of his time this season in the slot and will see plenty of Jeremy Lane in coverage. Lane is the Seahawks' weak link in the secondary, allowing over one fantasy point for every three routes run against him (putting him in the bottom 15 among ProFootballFocus' qualified cornerbacks). Boldin has appeared in the playoffs five times in his career, scoring eight touchdowns in 14 of those games and averaging nearly 78 yards per game. Sure, it's hard to rely on stats backdated nearly nine seasons, but who better to rely on for GPPs than a bargain-salaried veteran who's been there and done that.
Other Against-the-Grainers
QB: Russell Wilson (SEA, $33)
RB: Paul Perkins (NYG, $15)
WR: Jordy Nelson (GB, $31), Michael Crabtree (OAK, $19), Jermaine Kearse (SEA, $11)
TE: Ladarius Green (PIT, $16)
DST: New York Giants ($14)
CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)
Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, $35)
Though the 10-point spread gives us momentary pause, at the end of the day it's difficult to overlook Big Ben's incredible home splits. He's thrown nearly the same amount of yards on the road (1,904) as he has at home (1,915), but Roethlisberger completes passes in the friendly confines at a much higher clip (70.8 percent at home, 59.4 percent on the road) and has a 20:5 TD:INT at Heinz Field compared to 9:8 on the road. Our only concern on such a small slate is that Bell runs a couple in himself, though if you're expecting a few scores from the Steelers on Sunday, you can all but guarantee yourself a piece of all of them with the Roethlisberger-Bell combo. If Ben throws one to Bell, that's just icing on the cake.
Running Backs
Le'Veon Bell (PIT, $41)
There's no such thing as a free square, especially at such a steep price, but we're expecting a massive ownership share for one of the league's most effective running backs this week. You'd have to be nuts to fade him in cash games, though there's certainly some viability to doing so in tournaments. Nevertheless, we're talking about an RB averaging 23.3 Yahoo fantasy points per game in the regular season – almost 10 more than the next closest back available (Latavius Murray averaged 13.7). Bell averaged 157 yards from scrimmage this season and has at least four receptions in every game this season except for his last appearance (just three catches for 15 receiving yards in Week 15). We simply click on the plus sign next to Bell's name in cash games, and build our lineups around him this week.
Thomas Rawls (SEA, $13)
As previously mentioned, RB2 is a tough spot. Rawls is anything but cash-game worthy, but we have to make some concessions so that our teams can fit under the salary cap this week. His season has essentially been a lost one, as he's missed seven games and has had only one solid fantasy day this season (15-106-2 in Week 13 against the Panthers). He's struggled with minor dings and scratches since getting back onto the field in Week 11, and is averaging a ghastly 1.5 YPC over his last three games. Rawls did get in the end zone last week, and we should presume that he would be the goal line back should the opportunity arise Saturday. He was out-snapped by rookie Alex Collins in Week 17 (30 to 20), but I'd expect Rawls to see more of the action against the Lions. Keep in mind that he is far from a safe cash game play, but because of cap constraints, he's my RB2 of choice this weekend.
Wide Receivers
Odell Beckham (NYG, $36)
You certainly can't go wrong stacking Brown if you're going with Big Ben. It's nearly impossible to fit Brown with Beckham though, unless you plan on slumming it at QB or going without Lev Bell. Beckham is my choice over Brown because he essentially is the Giants' offense, and doesn't have a big name to contend with for usage. The Packers have been continuously wrecked by opposing No. 1 receivers, and we know that OBJ is one of the league's best. Expect him to see double-digit targets and at least one trip into the end zone this weekend.
Doug Baldwin (SEA, $25)
I'm going to do what I can to ensure Baldwin is a staple in my cash game and tourney lineups this weekend. The fact that his price is reasonable has no bearing on our present situation since lineup construction is so difficult, given the limited options. Unless the Lions plan on shadowing him with Darius Slay, Baldwin has the best matchup among wide receivers this weekend. Both Quandre Diggs and Asa Jackson (ankle injury last week) are on IR, so Baldwin will likely line up against slot corner Alex Carter. Carter was a third round pick in 2015 but missed all of last season, and has yet to play a defensive snap this season (just four snaps on special teams in Week 16). Keep an eye on any news on this front, as Baldwin would be a slam dunk option if we don't expect Slay's coverage.
DeVante Parker (MIA, $12)
Parker is my cheapie pick to click in a sea of underwhelming options below the $15 mark. As 10-point underdogs, we're assuming that Moore operates in catch-up mode for a good chunk of the game. Though Jarvis Landry is our preferred target, he's a bit tougher to fit into lineups. Parker is extremely talented, and most importantly, healthy. He's seen seven targets in each of his last two games, catching five balls for 45 yards last week and put up a 4-85-1 line in Week 16. It's a tough call between Parker and Kenny Stills ($14) at similar price points, but I'll take the more talented receiver at a $2 discount.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook (GB, $13)
Tight end this weekend is truly a matter of how much cap space we have left over. Ideally, we'd want to fit in Jimmy Graham, and while $23 is more than a fair price, it's certainly no bargain in the context of this week's pricing. Cook is the top dollar-for-dollar value, as he's become an integral part of Rodgers' passing tree over the past month. He's had two decent outings in his last three games – 4-56 on eight targets in Week 17 and 6-85 on eight targets in Week 15. Cook may be the chalkiest option this week, but we should also give consideration to C.J. Fiedorowicz and Ladarius Green. Green is my preference if you have the cap space (Dolphins have allowed 10 TDs to opposing TEs), Fiedorowicz has the safest floor and Cook is the best overall option value-wise.
Defense/Special Teams
Seattle Seahawks ($18)
Earlier in the week, the Texans stuck out to me as the top play, at home in an extremely bearish implied total of 36.5. Looking beyond face value, we truly should expect a Raiders' game plan that involves plenty of run plays and for rookie QB Cook to be almost hidden. After all, he's the first quarterback to make his first NFL start in a playoff game – on the road, no less. I actually don't expect Cook to be a complete train wreck though, and believe there are other defenses that have a better shot at capitalizing on opposing offenses' mistakes. The Seahawks are thus my favorite DST of the weekend, at home and facing Matthew Stafford who has thrown at least one interception in four straight games (five total over that span). The dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand is stabilized for games, but it's not quite healed. As eight-point underdogs, and likely 35-plus pass attempts, there's a good chance a Seattle defender or two capitalize on some of Stafford's mistakes. If you have the extra $2, the Seahawks are a solid play over the chalkier Texans this week.
Honorable Mentions
QB: Aaron Rodgers (SEA, $39)
RB: Latavius Murray (OAK, $26), Zach Zenner (DET, $15)
WR: Antonio Brown (PIT, $37), Jarvis Landry (MIA, $22), Sterling Shepard (NYG, $15)
TE: C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU, $16)
DST: Houston Texans ($16)
