This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Black Desert Championship Betting Preview
The PGA Tour action heads west for a new event on the fall schedule – the Black Desert Championship in Ivins, Utah. It will be the first time in 60 years that the Tour is holding an event in the Beehive State and is being held at Black Desert Resort, Tom Weiskopf's final project which opened two years ago. Keith Mitchell headlines as the favorite at 18-1 odds as he looks to bounce back after being unable to convert the 54-hole lead last week.
A par-71 at 7,371 yards, Black Desert Resort sits at roughly 3,000 feet of elevation, so the course is going to play closer to 7,100 yards and not all that long by Tour standards. As the name would imply, this course has a desert feel to it, so if you're looking for a comp course, I think TPC Summerlin and PGA West are the most similar of the Tour venues. Although we don't have any data to draw from, off the tee, players will have pretty wide landing areas with non-penal rough surrounding the fairways, and the massive red rocks will only come into play on big misses. Combine that with a pair of driveable par-4s, and I think there's going to be a slight premium on distance over accuracy off the tee. These resort type golf courses tend to favor birdie makers as well, so expect scoring to be low.
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Flushers Only
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.
- Kurt Kitayama: 1.30
- Doug Ghim: 1.20
- Austin Smotherman: 1.16
- J.J. Spaun: 0.97
- Andrew Novak: 0.86
With these first time courses, I tend to always lean towards the best ball strikers and in a weaker field like this, Kitayama is one of the names that stands out in that regard. This will be his first event of the fall, and he was in excellent form with his irons this summer, ranking in the top-5 in SG: Approach at The Open and the 3M. Kitayama is tied for the second choice on the odds board at 25-1. Another player that has been in good form with his long game is Smotherman, albeit a bit under the radar considering he's split his time between the Korn Ferry and PGA Tours this year. He led the field in SG: Off-the-tee in Napa en route to a top-10 finish and was third in approach last week. If he can combine the two, he could be a longshot to keep an eye on at 90-1 odds.
Black Desert Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Patrick Fishburn (30-1)
Fishburn has the home advantage this week as a Utah native that also played collegiately in state. On top of that, he's been playing some darn good golf as of late with solo third place finishes at the Barracuda and Procore and a T6 at the 3M Open.
Lucas Glover (40-1)
Glover is thriving early on in the fall season with results of T13 and T3 last week. The putter seems to be heating up like it did last summer and he was sixth in approach in Jackson. We know that he's going to hit a ton of fairways here and that should set up plenty of good birdie looks with his strong iron play.
Michael Thorbjornsen (40-1)
This will be Thorbjornsen's 10th Tour start of the year after he led the PGA Tour's University rankings, and he's already posted a runner-up finish and a top-10 last week. His results tend to be hit-or-miss, and his length and solid putting can make him a contender just about anywhere.
Black Desert Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Ben Kohles (5-1)
Kohles ranks fourth in driving accuracy this year and although he's not a long hitter, I don't think that's going to prevent him from competing here. He's been dialed in with his irons, gaining shots on approach in seven of his last eight tournaments.
Ryo Hisatsune (13-2)
Hisatsune's ball striking numbers are pretty solid – he's gaining strokes on the season off the tee and on approach, and is 49th in driving accuracy and 19th in greens in regulation. The 22-year-old rookie was third in SG: Approach at the Wyndham in which he finished T3.
Kevin Chappell (12-1)
Chappell is my darkhorse play of the week as he's now made six cuts in a row and posted a pair of top-25s in alternate events this summer. He was 11th in SG: Tee to green last week and his best result of the year came in Tahoe – another course played at elevation.
Black Desert Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Beau Hossler (-115) over Stephan Jaeger
Hossler is coming off a playoff loss last week and his all-around game is in good form. I like him to keep the momentum rolling in Utah. Since an excellent first half of the year in which Jaeger picked up his first win, his best result is T18 in 15 starts since. His iron play has dropped off quite a bit, where he's lost strokes on approach in six of his last seven tournaments.
Mac Meissner (-110) over Patrick Rodgers
Does Rodgers ever seem to make bettors happy? His recent stretch is pretty underwhelming – best result of T33 over his last five starts and just one top-10 since the start of May. I'll take Meissner, the straighter hitter and better iron player. The Tour rookie has gained shots on approach in eight consecutive tournaments and that's helped lead to a top-20 in half of those starts.
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