This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Shriners Children's Open Betting Preview
The fourth of eight events in the fall schedule of the PGA Tour season continues this week in Las Vegas for the Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin. Following a week that saw Matt McCarty win in his second start as a PGA Tour member, the field gets a slight boost from the last few events with a contingent of Tour players living in Vegas and has six top-50 players in the OWGR teeing-it-up. Last year, tournament favorite Tom Kim (10-1 odds) successfully defended his title by one stroke over Adam Hadwin.
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Course Overview
Par 71, 7,255 yards
These are the average rankings of the event champions over the last five years.
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 32.2
- SG: Approach: 10.6
- SG: Around-the-Green: 31.8
- SG: Putting: 7.4
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 14.4
- Driving Distance: 38.0
- Driving Accuracy: 15.0
TPC Summerlin is no stranger to birdies as we've seen the winner reach at least 20-under in six consecutive years, and it seems like someone is on 59-watch at some point during the tournament. The three par-5s are quite easy and average about a half-stroke under par, as does the driveable par-4 15th hole. Off the tee, there's much more of a premium on accuracy over distance as there are only three par-4s over 450 yards and if you get a bit offline, you can quickly find yourself in the desert. Iron play stands out from the stats above, and I'll specifically target those that are strong wedge players as we see a lot of approach shots from inside 150 yards. Overall, I'm targeting accurate drivers, good approach/wedge players and birdie makers.
Summerlin Superstars
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Summerlin since 2019.
- Tom Kim: 65.5
- Adam Hadwin: 66.7
- Matt NeSmith: 67.1
- Adam Schenk: 67.3
- Tom Hoge: 67.4
Kim is clearly the man to beat this week as the only player in the field with less than 20-1 odds, as he's torn up the venue with a pair of 62s and no worse than a 68 across eight rounds. The only question mark is his form considering he's only played in the Presidents Cup since the playoffs, but that's certainly not enough to avoid him this week. Another player that's shown form here, albeit much more under the radar is NeSmith, who is a perfect 5-for-5 on made cuts in Vegas with four top-20s. He's done it with his iron play, ranking in the top-5 in SG: Approach in two of his last three trips. At 134th in the FedExCup Fall Standings, he needs a big week to keep his Tour card. I like him as a low-cost DFS option or for a placement wager.
Awesome on Approach
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.
- Kurt Kitayama: 1.21
- Eric Cole: 0.99
- Tom Kim: 0.98
- Doug Ghim: 0.87
- Taylor Pendrith: 0.87
UNLV product and Vegas resident Kitayama tops the list by a sizeable margin as he's been dialed in with his iron play, ranking in the top-5 in SG: Approach in three of his last four tournaments. The main issue is that he struggles mightily with his putter, but this is a place where he should know the greens better than anywhere else. Kitayama is tied for the third choice on the board at 30-1 odds. Right behind him on the list and on the betting board is Cole at 35-1 odds, and he closed strong here last year with a final round 62 to finish T3. There's a lot to like about him as he led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green last year and was also first in approach in his last start in Jackson. Cole played very well last fall and is trending towards his first victory.
Shriners Children's Open Bets: Outright Picks
Davis Thompson (30-1)
Thompson has quickly established himself as a formidable all-around player as he's gaining shots in every strokes gained category this year and is 12th in SG: Total. He finished T12 here two years ago in his third start as a PGA Tour member.
J.J. Spaun (45-1)
I picked Spaun a couple weeks ago, and he promptly withdrew following the first round. He bounced back with a top-25 last week in which he was 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Spaun has led the field in approach in two of his appearances at the event.
Matt Kuchar (60-1)
Kuchar's hot streak ended in Jackson but TPC Summerlin should be much better suited to his game considering driving play doesn't tend to be a huge factor here. He's been in contention on the weekend in three of his last four tournaments.
Shriners Children's Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Ben Silverman (5-1)
Silverman is coming off a top-5 finish in Napa in his most recent start to essentially lock up his Tour card for next season. As a result, he's more rested than most of the field and should be freed up. Silverman ranks fourth in SG: Putting this year and that's a bigger factor this week.
Henrik Norlander (15-2)
Norlander only had conditional status this year but has worked his way up to 119th in points. This is the best we've seen him play in a few years (11th in SG: Approach), and here's to betting on him to keep the momentum rolling off a top-10 in Utah last week.
Justin Suh (17-2)
Suh has the home field advantage as he resides in Vegas and knows Summerlin well. He's had a mostly uneventful year but has shown some improvement as his only two top-20s have both come since July. Suh has one top-10 here back in 2020.
Shriners Children's Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Harry Hall (-110) over J.T. Poston
A battle between two golfers trending in opposite directions, Hall has been on a nice run this summer having picked up his first win in an alternate event and has five top-25s over his last eight worldwide starts. I like the Vegas resident over Poston, who has a best result of T30 over his last eight starts.
Jhonattan Vegas (-110) over Harris English
Vegas has turned into a safe bet for matchups with eight made cuts in a row, which has included a win and a total of four top-25s. He's also gained strokes with his ball striking in seven straight tournaments. English is coming off his first top-25 since May, but that was largely due to a hot week with his short game. He's lost strokes on approach in five tournaments in a row.
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