2024 Texas Children's Houston Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on March 26, 2024 5:06PM EST

Texas Children's Houston Open Betting Preview

With the Florida Swing officially over, the PGA Tour heads to Texas for the first of two events leading up to the Masters.

The Houston Open was last played as part of the wraparound 2022-23 season in Nov. 2022 and this is the fourth time it will be held at Memorial Park Golf Course. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the overwhelming favorite at less than 3-1 odds to win as he looks for his third consecutive win.

Last year, Tony Finau -- at 16-1 -- cruised to fifth Tour victory with a four-shot victory over Tyson Alexander.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Overview

Par-70, 7,435 yards

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Texas Children's Houston Open Winners at Memorial Park

SG: Off-the-Tee: 15.7
SG: Approach: 8.3
SG: Around-the-Green: 32.3
SG: Putting: 3.3
SG: Tee-to-Green: 8.3
Driving Distance: 17.0
Driving Accuracy: 25.7

Memorial Park shows that you don't need a bunch of water hazards, bunkers or deep rough to make it a difficult test with the winner averaging just 13-under par. Off the tee, there's certainly more of a premium on length over accuracy, which is no surprise considering the minimal rough as well as five of the par-4s play over 490 yards. From the stats above, we can see that approach play is a key metric to focus on and we'll see a lot of approach shots from 200+ yards out. This is certainly a week where you don't want to overlook good putters, either, as players will often need to rely on their short game to save par.

Memorial Park Mashers

The following players, with a minimum of two appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Memorial Park.

Finau leads the way here as eight of his 10 rounds at the event have been in the 60s, which certainly isn't an easy task considering how difficult the venue has played. The defending champion is getting plenty of respect from the oddsmakers as the fifth choice on the board at 25-1 odds, although he comes in off a disappointing missed cut and has just one top-10 on the season. A bit farther down the betting board we find Rai at 55-1 to win, and his two appearances at the event have netted results of T19 and T7. Statistically, Rai has been better than his two top-25s on the year would indicate as he's a solid 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green and is leading the Tour in driving accuracy.

Iron Specialists

The following players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Once again, Hoge tops a list relating to iron play as he continues to show up even better in the category than the hottest golfer on the planet. Unfortunately, that doesn't translate to his driving play, where he ranked dead last of those that made the cut at The PLAYERS in his most recent start. If he can turn that around, he's a fine value at 45-1 odds. Meanwhile, it's no surprise to see world No. 1 Scheffler pop on both lists. Amazingly, he leads the Tour in SG: Total, Off-the-Tee, Approach and Tee-to-Green, as well as greens in regulation this year. That will translate to just about any course, and he enters this week fresh off two wins and a pair of top-10s at Memorial Park.

Texas Children's Houston Open: Outright Picks

Jason Day (25-1)

Day is no stranger to success in the Lone Star State having won the Byron Nelson last year on top of having T7 and T16 results at Memorial Park. He's in good form with three top-10s on the year already.

Beau Hossler (55-1)

Dating back to last October, Hossler has five top-15s across his last 11 starts, making him a great target at over 50-1 in a non-signature event. I'm banking on some good vibes in the state he played golf in collegiately, and also an event that he has a runner-up result in.

Mackenzie Hughes (55-1)

It's hard to overlook Hughes' track record at the event, which includes a top-10 and a 3-for-3 record on made cuts. Historically one of the best putters on Tour, he's also fourth in SG: Around the green this season and finished tied for third last week.

Texas Children's Houston Open: Top-10 Wagers

Taylor Moore (5-1)

Although Moore hasn't posted a top-10 since the first playoff event last August, it doesn't mean he's in bad form as he hasn't missed a cut since July, and is coming off a T12 finish last week in which he ranked sixth in SG: Approach.

Davis Thompson (15-2)

Thompson has had a decent start to 2024 with three top-25 finishes but has yet to work his way into contention. I expect that to change this week for the 24-year-old, who ranked third in SG: Off the tee here a year ago.

Michael Kim (12-1)

Kim is more than just a popular follow on Twitter, he's a solid golfer at just outside the top-100 in the world and has a pair of top-10s over his last 13 starts. That presents nice value at 12-1 odds. He was 28th in SG: Tee to green here last year.

Texas Children's Houston Open: Head-to-Head Matchups

Ben Griffin (-120) over Sam Ryder

Griffin found his form last week at Copperhead with his second top-20 of the season and is coming off a T16 result here just over a year ago. Meanwhile, Ryder has struggled at the event, missing the cut both times before skipping the event last season while losing over 1.5 strokes per round on approach across four rounds.

Akshay Bhatia (-110) over Billy Horschel

A matchup between two players that are both making the debut at Memorial Park, I'll side with Bhatia, who is longer and straighter off the tee and also the superior iron player. In the four tournaments he's made the cut in this year, he's posted a top-20 every time. Horschel is too reliant on a hot putting week for my liking at a course he hasn't seen before.

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