DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Butterfield Bermuda Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $6.9M
Winner's Share: $1.242M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Southampton Parish, Bermuda
Course: Port Royal Golf Course
Yardage: 6,828
Par: 71
2023 champion: Camilo Villegas

Tournament Preview

The urgency that is now the PGA Tour's fall season is reflected in the field this week, for the penultimate tournament on the 2024 schedule. That doesn't mean it's a good field. Instead, it's the rank-and-file who have showed out en masse and will be battling on two fronts.

First, there's the race to finish the season inside the top-125 in the FedEx Cup point standings to secure full playing privileges for n3ext year. Second, there's a financial windfall awaiting golfers finishing 51st to 60th in the point standings. Those players will be exempt into two early 2025 signature events at Pebble Beach, tournaments with small fields and no cut, which add up to big paydays.

All but four golfers positioned between 115th and 155th in the point standings are in the 120-man field. Seven of the 10 golfers currently in the so-called Next 10 -- 51st to 60th -- are entered.

For the record, Lucas Glover is probably the biggest name in the field -- he sits 62nd in points and has been grinding to crack the top-60. He will be joined by Mackenzie Hughes, Ben Griffin, Maverick McNealy, Patrick Rodgers, Nick Taylor and three former Bermuda champs in Camilo Villegas (2023), Seamus Power (2022) and Brendon Todd, who captured the inaugural Bermuda event in 2019.

With those the biggest names on hand, the quality of the field drops off very fast and very far, making it a difficult week to formulate successful DFS lineups.

The Bermuda Tour stop began just five years ago as an alternate-field event the same week as the WGC-HSBC Champions in China. It was elevated to a full-points, stand-alone tournament on a temporary basis after the WGC event was canceled in 2020 because of the pandemic. Two years ago, with the WGC tournament defunct altogether, it became a full-points event. So maybe tournament organizers should be happy just to be here, regardless of the field.

Look at the bright side: There are "sweeping ocean views from nearly every hole," as the tournament website says.

Port Royal is a public track designed by famed architect Robert Trent Jones in 1970. It is among the shortest courses the golfers will see all year. It was a real pushover in its debut in 2019, when Todd won at 24-under. It stiffened for two years when Brian Gay and then Lucas Herbert both won at 15-under, thanks to some windier conditions. But it was back to 24-under a year ago, when Villegas emerged victorious.

But no matter, the prevailing factor is that the course is very short. There are only three par-5s, two of which are under 520 yards. There are six par-4s under 400 yards, and two more just over 400. The signature hole is the 16th, and it's one of the two 235-yard par-3s. As the tournament website says, there is "nothing but the Atlantic Ocean between the tee and the pin." It's actually really cool, with both the tee box and green on cliffs. The green is thin, surrounded by bunkers and on a peninsula.

Since Port Royal is not long, what are its defenses? For one, doglegs -- eight of them. When you combine those doglegs with lots of cross bunkers -- 87 total on the course -- driver will not be a popular club this week, or very much needed. There's also water on seven holes. There are significant elevation changes. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are medium size, averaging around 6,000 square feet (because of course they use Bermudagrass greens in Bermuda). But the primary defense on an island course, as you can imagine, is wind, wind and more wind. And this year, the forecast says, well, here we go ...

Strong winds and rain are prevalent in the forecast. It will be very windy all week, with rain on and off from Friday to Sunday. High temperatures will be around 70 all week.

This is shaping up as a week where tee teams might very well matter. Hold off until the last possible moment before locking your lineup, a benefit we did not have the luxury of before making our picks.

Key Stats to Winning at El Cardonal at Diamante

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Scoring, 350-400 yards
• Birdie or Better Percentage/Birdie Average

Past Champions

2023 - Camilo Villegas
2022 - Seamus Power
2021 - Lucas Herbert
2020 - Brian Gay
2019 - Brendon Todd

Champion's Profile

There is no ShotLink on the course, so we have no strokes-gained data. But it is still evident, because the course is so short, that driving has little impact on the final outcome.

If you needed actual evidence, here is Exhibit A: Villegas ranked 74th in driving distance last year at 275 yards -- almost last among those who made the cut -- but was first in greens in regulation at 82 percent. Villegas also ranked 26th in putting.

But the key statistical correlation to success was GIR -- the top-5 on the leaderboard all finished inside the top-12 in the field. Putting was next correlating.

Two years ago, the top four finishers all ranked top-8 in putting.

The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com was set at 270.5 -- 13.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Seamus Power - $10,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: (+1600)
Power is the co-favorite at the DK Sportsbook along with Mackenzie Hughes, the only other $10,000 golfer in the field. We like Power. Not only did he win here two years ago, he's amid a terrific stretch of four top-15s in five starts dating back to the playoffs. Power normally isn't a great putter -- but in this field, he is.

$9,000-$9,900

Patrick Rodgers - $9,500 (+2000)
Rodgers is among the best golfers in this field. He's currently 55th in the standings. His fall season has not been great, though he did record top-25s in his past two outings. Rodgers did not play Bermuda last year, but finished top-5 both of the previous years.

Justin Lower - $9,300 (+2000)
Lower is coming off his best career finish, a shared runner-up in Mexico. Now he comes to a tournament where he has excelled, with two top-20s and a top-10 the past three years. Lower is one of the best putters in this field.

Matti Schmid - $9,100 (+2800)
Schmid finished third here at 21-under a year ago, long before he became the Schmid that is excelling during the fall season (last week's MC not withstanding) Schmid is ranked top-10 in this field in SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green over his past 24 rounds, and top-5 in birdie or better.

$8,000-$8,900

Jacob Bridgeman - $8,000 (+4000)
The $8,000s are very often a dead zone for us and this week especially so. The only pick in this group is the one at the very bottom. Bridgeman has played his way into the top-125 (115th) during the fall, with made cuts in his past four starts, two of them top-15s. He is ranked sixth on Tour in SG: Putting.

$7,000-$7,900

Vince Whaley - $7,700 (+5000)
Whaley finished top-10 here last year and again in 2021. This tournament couldn't have come at a better time for him, as he sits in the precarious position of 123rd in the point standings. Whaley has made his past four cuts during the fall, two of them resulting in twin T16s.

Joel Dahmen - $7,500 (+7000)
If the wind actually blows the way it's forecast to, a player such as Dahmen may have an edge: His great ball-striking would be accentuated and his terrible putting could be minimized. Dahmen tied for 14th last week in Mexico. That moved him to 121st in the point standings, almost secure to keep his card for next season but not quite yet. 

David Lipsky - $7,300 (+8000)
With a runner-up at the fall-opening Procore and last week's T6 in Mexico, Lipsky will keep his Tour card for next season. As with Dahmen, very windy conditions could mask his woeful putting. Lipsky finished T13 here a year ago.

$6,000-$6,900

Martin Laird - $6,900 (+1100)
There is so little to like in the $6,000s. Same as last week, though both of our picks made the cut, including Wesley Bryan's T6. (Bryan is in the $7,000s this week.) Laird made the cut here last year, and he made the cut last week in Mexico. We don't have much else to offer, other than maybe because he's Scottish he's used to playing in severe wind.

Sean O'Hair - $6,500 (+25000)
O'Hair has missed his past four cuts dating back to July. Could he really be the best choice among everyone $6,500 and under? We'll offer a half-hearted maybe? O'Hair has made the cut here the past three years, including two top-25s. At 42, he might be more patient in severe conditions than some other guys.

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