This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
FedEx St. Jude Championship
Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $3.6M
FedEx Cup Points: 2,000 to the 2inner
Location: Memphis, Tenn.
Course: TPC Southwind
Yardage: 7,243
Par: 70
2023 champion: Lucas Glover
Tournament Preview
Every week that a golfer advances in the FedExCup Playoffs, more perks and riches await. For the top golfers, nothing short of the season-ending TOUR Championship will suffice. But for the rank-and-file, the key threshold, the one that means they have taken a leap to the next level in their careers, is entry into the second playoff event, the BMW Championship.
Which brings us to the first playoff event, this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. The top 70 golfers in the 2024 season are there -- they all have their Tour cards for next season, they all will get a nice no-cut check come Sunday night. If they somehow can stay inside or climb into the top 50 and get to next week's BMW, that ensures a spot into every 2025 signature event. Not only does that mean eight guaranteed large paydays, it also means potentially large quantities of FedExCup points -- which would help them finish in the top 50 again next season.
Yes, it's a case of the rich having more and better opportunities to get even richer, but this is what the top players wanted from Commissioner Jay Monahan and the Tour.
The thing is, getting into the top 50 this week won't be easy, even with the available points being quadrupled from a basic regular-season Tour event -- 2,000 for the winner as opposed to 500 during the season. In theory, everyone from No. 51 to 70 has a decent enough shot. But last year at the FedEx St. Jude, only two players were able to break through and continue their seasons. Hideki Matsuyama (T16) and Cam Davis (T6) made the leap, sending Nick Hardy and Mackenzie Hughes home.
Here's where the guys on either side of the top-50 bubble lie:
46. Adam Scott
47. Max Greyserman
48. Mackenzie Hughes
49. Will Zalatoris
50. Jake Knapp
51. Harris English
52. Nick Taylor
53. Patrick Rodgers
54. Eric Cole
55. Justin Rose
The two biggest names outside the top 50 are even further back: No. 57 Viktor Hovland, who is the defending FedExCup champion after winning both the BMW and TOUR Championship last year, and No. 64 Jordan Spieth. Hovland has only one top-10 all year and he surely needs another. Spieth might need a top-5 to reach next week's BMW at Castle Pines Golf Club outside Denver.
At the other end of the standings, all the top guys are here: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy head the field.
We should point out that No. 71 in the point standings, Victor Perez, did get in this year. That's because the late Grayson Murray was No. 61, and the Tour removed his name from the standings this week to allow everyone else to move up.
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The PGA Tour has a long history with FedEx, and an even longer one with the city of Memphis.
There is no bigger sponsor of the Tour than FedEx, which has been the title sponsor for the playoffs all 18 years now. It has been the title sponsor of the Memphis tour stop since 1986, first as a regular tournament, then as a WGC and now as the first playoff event.
The Tour has been stopping in Memphis since 1958. The tournament was long associated with the late entertainer Danny Thomas, and it bore his name from 1970 to 1984. (Thomas founded the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis in 1962 and his family is still closely associated with it.) Two years later, FedEx came on board. TPC Southwind has been the host course since 1989.
Southwind is a long par-70 with narrow fairways. There are 11 doglegs that curb distance and, to a degree, scoring. There are only two par-5s. Southwind features eight par-4s of 450ish-plus yards and the bermudagrass greens average a small 4,300 square feet. Hitting from far back in the fairway into small greens makes getting on the green in regulation a challenge. That doesn't even take into account the 11 water hazards affecting 11 holes. There have been far more water balls at Southwind over the past two decades than at any other course on Tour, even more than at TPC Sawgrass (TPC Twin Cities is now bidding to be No. 1). Nowhere is there more danger than at No. 18, a 453-yard dogleg left with water almost the entire way.
After an easy start to Southwind on Nos. 1 to 4, the course gets harder in a hurry. The hardest hole on the course is normally the 485-yard 5th. The 482-yard 7th is also a brute. On the back, the 205-yard 14th and the 18th featured more blowups last year than any other holes on the course.
As for the weather, we're talking hot. As in, upper-90s hot. There could be some scattered thunderstorms on Friday and the wind will be light across all four days. Really, it could come down to whichever golfer doesn't wilt in the extreme heat.
Memphis golf historical factoids: The first 59 in PGA Tour history was shot in Memphis. Al Geiberger did it at par-72 Cordova Country Club in the second round of the 1977 tournament then known as the Danny Thomas Memphis Classic. Geiberger won the tourney by three strokes ahead of former Memphis winner Gary Player. Also in 1977, get this: Former president Gerald Ford hit an incredible shot during the pro-am ... no, he didn't plunk a spectator in the head as he was wont to do -- he made a hole-in-one!
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Southwind
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/Ball Striking/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Par 4 Efficiency 450-500 yards
Past Champions
FedEx St. Jude Championship
2023 - Lucas Glover
2022 - Will Zalatoris
WGC-FedEx
2021 - Abraham Ancer
2020 - Justin Thomas
2019 - Brooks Koepka
St. Jude Classic
2018 - Dustin Johnson
2017 - Daniel Berger
2016 - Daniel Berger
2015 - Fabian Gomez
2014 - Ben Crane
Champion's Profile
The course is a long par-70, but the narrow fairways mean accuracy counts more than distance. Besides, with 11 doglegs, the course does a good job of blunting the biggest hitters. The past three years -- two as a playoff event and one as a WGC -- the winning score has been 15- or 16-under.
Last year, Glover and Patrick Cantlay went to a playoff at 16-under. The two of them, plus third-place finisher Rory McIlroy, all finished top-4 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. McIlroy led the field in driving distance was ranked fourth in SG: Approach. Glover and Cantlay excelled around the greens. Glover ranked 12th in SG: Putting.
Two years ago, Zalatoris wasn't especially accurate hitting fairways, but he was No. 1 in SG: Approach and eighth in greens in regulation. He ranked 25th in the field in SG: Putting. Playoff loser Straka was 13th in Approach but second in both GIR and Putting.
Really, accuracy from tee-to-green is most paramount.
The over/under per golfodds.com was set at 264.5 -- 15.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$10,000+
Scottie Scheffler - $12,400 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +330)
Scheffler's last two starts at Southwind have been quite pedestrian, if not bad: MC-T31. But he did tie for 14th in 2021. Southwind is all about accuracy and no one is more accurate now than Scheffler.
Collin Morikawa - $10,000 (+1200)
Morikawa and Southwind were not a good fit when he first started playing in Memphis. But two years ago he tied for fifth and last year tied for 13th. Morikawa's approach numbers remain way off from their traditional highs -- they are merely very good and not elite -- but he's a top-15 player off the tee and top-10 around the green. Morikawa has not finished outside the top 25 since before the Masters. Not even Scheffler can say that.
$9,000-$9,900
Tommy Fleetwood - $9,800 (+2200)
Fleetwood's season-long approach play does not look great. But he's been much better of late and, when you combine that with accurate drives and good wedge play around the greens, it's a blueprint for success at Southwind. In fact, Fleetwood tied for third there last year.
Corey Conners - $9,100 (+3000)
TPC Southwind is a course where you can get by without great putting, because the emphasis on tee-to-green is so strong. So it's no surprise that Conners tied for sixth last year. That's where Conners lands in our model, sixth, with thanks in part to putting that has been much better of late.
$8,000-$8,900
Tony Finau - $8,800 (+3500)
Finau tied for fifth here two years ago. This has been a great bounceback season for him. Currently 14th in points, he'll be in the TOUR Championship in three weeks. In his past seven starts, Finau tallied three top-10s and three more top-20s. He is ranked second on Tour in SG: Approach and sixth in Tee-to-Green. And his putting is merely bad instead of its usual atrocious.
Sungjae Im - $8,700 (+3500)
Im has played great at Southwind and has been playing great the past four months. What more can you want? He tied for sixth here last year, following a T12 in 2022. Im also has five top-10s in his past eight starts overall. He is ranked top-30 on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green.
$7,000-$7,900
Adam Scott - $7,700 (+5000)
Scott is back in the playoffs after missing for the first time last year. He really knows how to handle Southwind, finishing fifth here two years ago in the playoffs. His odds are short for a $7,700 golfer, which also should tell you something. Scott has top-25s in half of his 16 starts, including runner-up at the Scottish Open and a tie for 10th at the Open Championship in his past two outings.
Sepp Straka - $7,400 (+6000)
Straka leads the Tour in driving accuracy and that will help carry him to the TOUR Championship this year. At 18th in points, he won't fall out of the top 30. Straka was a playoff loser to Zalatoris here two years ago. He's a pretty short hitter for a pretty big guy, but that won't matter much this week. Our model places him top-20 despite a weak short game and subpar putting.
$6,000-$6,900
Cam Davis - $6,800 (+11000)
It's hard to turn away from Davis, even though he will be perhaps the most popular play in the $6,000s. Two years ago, he was T13 here and last year T6 to climb into the top 50. Davis won't have that added pressure this week, as he's comfortably inside the top 50 already at No. 44. Our model places him in the middle of the pack, but most of that is because of one terrible part of his game: putting.
Jhonattan Vegas - $6,500 (+15000)
Vegas has five top-25s all year. Three of them have come in his past five starts, including his win at the 3M Open. He is so strong tee-to-green -- ranked eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th in Approach, 14th in Tee-to-Green and second in greens in regulation behind only Scheffler -- that we can live with his horrible short game/putting on this course.
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