This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
SHRINERS CHILDREN'S OPEN
Purse: $7M
Winner's Share: $1.26M
FedExCup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Las Vegas
Course: TPC Summerlin
Yardage: 7,255
Par: 71
2023 Champion: Tom Kim
Tournament Preview
With the addition of a new tournament last week in Utah, this portion of the PGA Tour schedule qualifies as a fall version of the western swing, much like we annually have in the winter in January and February. The Tour makes its annual Las Vegas stop this week, followed by the ZOZO Championship -- that's so far west, it's Far East, in Japan -- and, after a one-week hiatus, there's a tournament in Los Cabos at the western tip of Mexico.
This is great news, time-wise, for East Coast golf fans looking for prime-time finishes. It would be even better if, like last year, LPGA star Lexi Thompson -- who played well but missed the cut -- was in the Shriners field to draw more eyeballs. This year's field of 132 is all male and, well, more of an acquired taste.
Tom Kim is the lone golfer ranked in the top 40 in the world teeing it up in Vegas and, as the two-time defending champion, he kinda/sorta has to be entered. The other headliner kinda/sorta is Rickie Fowler, who is making his second start of the fall. After that -- and bear with us here -- we have 2023 runner-up Adam Hadwin; 2023 third-place finishers Taylor Pendrith, Eric Cole and J.T. Poston; Davis Thompson, Cam Davis, Stephan Jaeger and Tom Hoge. Joining Fowler in the "Best Days Are Behind Them" category are 2013 Shriners champ Webb Simpson, Matt Kuchar, Francesco Molinari and Danny Willett.
Christo Lamprecht is also entered. He's the 6-foot-8 South African and 2023 British Amateur champion who attended Georgia Tech and is now struggling mightily on the Korn Ferry Tour. Most fall events get some local amateur flavor and the Shriners is no different. Caden Fiorini is a UNLV senior. Ian Gilligan is a Florida senior and Reno, Nev., native. All three of them are in on sponsor invites.
Finally, Morgan Hoffmann and Neal Shipley got in via Monday qualifying, though that was too late to be included in DraftKings DFS pricing.
The Las Vegas Tour stop, around since 1983, used to be a very big deal, with the first $1 million purse in golf. In the 1980s and 1990s, the list of champions was impressive: Tiger Woods, Greg Norman, Paul Azinger, Fuzzy Zoeller, Davis Love III, Curtis Strange and three-time champion Jim Furyk. But eventually the tournament got as dry as the desert. Champions that followed included Rod Pampling, Smylie Kaufman, Ben Martin, Marc Turnesa and George McNeill. But it has found its way back, with Patrick Cantlay winning in 2017, Bryson DeChambeau in 2018, Kevin Na in 2019 Sungjae Im in 2021 and Kim the past two years.
This annually has been one of the biggest birdie-fests on Tour maybe the biggest when you consider that the winning score usually is well north of 20-under but with only three par-5s. Last year, Kim won at only 20-under, but the year before he shot 24-under, as did Im in 2021. Three years ago, three guys shot 23-under before Martin Laird won in a playoff. The track is at altitude (2,000 feet) and plays far shorter than the 7,255 yards listed on the scorecard. Really, everybody can hit it far this week. Summerlin annually totals among the most birdies on Tour -- but does so with only those three par-5s and without the max 156-man field, making that feat even harder.
There's plenty of opportunity for drama late on Sunday. No. 15 is a drivable 341 yards that plays among the easiest holes on the course. No. 16 is a 560-yarder that's reachable by most of the field. The 17th is a dicey par-3 of nearly 200 yards guarded by water, and the par-4 18th is 444 uphill and with more water. The last two holes often play over par -- 17 was the hardest hole last year, averaging at 3.232 -- so the course does stiffen when it counts most. Water comes into play on four holes. The bentgrass greens are very large, averaging about 7,400 square feet with the Stimpmeter running at 11.5. There are 92 bunkers.
Normally, this all adds up to: Giddyap! And find aggressive, birdie-making players for your lineups. But let's temper that a bit because it appears the weather will be a factor.
A cold front is moving in, dropping the forecast high from 90 on Wednesday to 68 on Friday. And it won't get that much warmer on the weekend. The wind also will be blowing almost 20 mph on Friday, and almost as hard on Saturday before calming on Sunday. In other words, check lineups closer to the lock to see whether there is a tee-time advantage.
Fun Shriners fact I: Twenty-year-old Tiger Woods earned his first PGA Tour victory in this event in 1996, then called the Las Vegas International. He shot 27-under-par over 90 holes and still needed a playoff to defeat a still-young-at-the-time Davis Love III (he was 32). Woods won a second tournament two weeks later and, legend has it, went on to a successful career.
Fun Shriners fact II: The only PGA Tour playoff to end with a hole-in-one took place at Summerlin in 2010, when Jonathan Byrd aced the fourth extra hole, the 204-yard 17th, to stun Laird and Cameron Percy. In fading light, Byrd did not see the ball go in the hole. Of course, playoffs have been won with eagles from the fairway, famously by Craig Parry at Doral in 2004, but never via an ace until 2010.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Summerlin
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Distance
• Birdie Average/Birdie or Better Percentage
Past Champions
2023 - Tom Kim
2022 - Tom Kim
2021 - Sungjae Im
2020 - Martin Laird
2019 - Kevin Na
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Patrick Cantlay
2016 - Rod Pampling
2015 - Smylie Kaufman
2014 - Ben Martin
Champion's Profile
It is bombs away at TPC Summerlin. You don't necessarily have to be a long hitter to win this week -- well, let's rephrase that: Just about everyone is long in the Vegas desert. Nobody would call Kim, Im, Laird or Na long.
Kim average 314 yards off the tee last year, and that barely made the top-50 in driving distance. He also ranked third in SG: Approach, 13th in Tee-to-Green and fourth in Putting to beat Hadwin by one. Interestingly, Kim averaged 298 off the tee in 2022, so he added some oomph to his game. He also ranked top-5 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, greens in regulation, SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting.
In 2020, DeChambeau's average driving distance was a surreal 363. It's not especially important to keep your drives in the fairway, because there's little penalty for missing; the rough is 2.25 inches.
As we now see in this birdie-fest, the tournament will be won from the fairway on in. There are always some super-low scores. Kim shot 62 each of the past two years -- he wasn't the only one -- and 2022 co-runner-up Cantlay shot 60. Sung Kang shot 61 three years ago while Im and Aaron Wise carded 62s. Four years ago, Matthew Wolff had a 61 and DeChambeau, Hadwin and Peter Malnati shot 62s.
This year, the weather might depress scores a bit. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com was set at 268.5 -- only 15.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
$10,000 and up
Davis Thompson - $10,300 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +3000)
Kim is the two-time defending champion and deservedly the top-priced guy. But ... and how can we say this gently? ... he's kind of a mess right now. Remember, Kim imploded at the end of the FedEx St. Jude to miss the all-important BMW, while Thompson got there. Then Kim got pumped up at the Presidents Cup and didn't back up his talk. Thompson is one of the best tee-to-green players on Tour, ranking 15th on the season. His game has no statistical weakness.
Taylor Pendrith - $10,200 (+2200)
Pendrith, like Thompson, is another top-50 player. In fact, he was a top-30, making it all the way to the TOUR Championship after finishing with top-25s in the first two playoff events. Pendrith was not great in the Presidents Cup, his lone outing of the fall before this week. Like Thompson, Pendrith is statistically above average across the board except for putting, where he is elite, ranking seventh on Tour for the season. That helps explain why Pendrith tied for third here last year.
$9,000-$9,900
Beau Hossler - $9,500 (+3000)
Hossler has a couple of T7s at Summerlin, including last year. He's been outstanding so far in the fall. He tied for 11th last week and was a playoff loser to Kevin Yu at the Sanderson Farms. That's zoomed Hossler up to 65th in the FedEx Cup Fall standings. Climbing into the top-60 by the end of the season gets him into the Pebble Beach and Riviera signature events next year.
Eric Cole - $9,000 (+3500)
The busiest man in golf has already secured a top-50 placement. But this will be his third start of the fall and a whopping 32nd of the season. Cole actually took last week off, after tying for 16th at the Sanderson Farms. Based on his course history, there was no way he was missing this tournament -- he tied for third here last year.
$8,000-$8,900
Adam Hadwin - $8,900 (+4000)
Hadwin finished runner-up here last year -- and now is $400 cheaper. He's also finished fourth and sixth and 10th in the past five Shriners, so we see a trend. Hadwin is not playing his best golf, which could explain the price drop, but he still cemented himself in the top-50. Hadwin's season was heavily front-loaded; he hasn't had a top-25 since June. But if anything will snap him out of his funk, it's TPC Summerlin.
Cam Davis - $8,800 (+4000)
Davis is yet another guy who loves this place. He shot four rounds of 67 or better last year in tying for seventh. Davis last played at the BMW -- he's another top-50 guy -- but right afterward he was overlooked for the Presidents Cup team. Some might say he was snubbed. He won the Rocket Mortgage at the end of June and then tied for fifth at the BMW, which somehow wasn't enough to convince International captain Mike Weir.
Harry Hall - $8,400 (+4000)
The Englishman is a big deal in Vegas. The former UNLV golfer is scheduled for a Wednesday media session. Hall won his first tournament over the summer -- the opposite-field ISCO Championship -- but is still far back in the point standings. Like everyone else, he still has designs to crack the top-60. One of the Tour's top putters, Hall just missed a top-25 here last year and tied for eighth here in 2021.
$7,000-$7,900
Matti Schmid - $7,800 (+4500)
Schmid has moved himself well inside the top-125 the past two weeks with excellent results at the Sanderson Farms (T16) and Black Desert Championship (solo 5th). And now he comes to a track where he's enjoyed decent results, with ties for 26th the past two years. Schmid is ranked just outside the top-50 on Tour in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Putting, which makes him one of the best driver/putters in the field.
Erik van Rooyen - $7,700 (+7500)
The South African has not been playing his best golf of late -- not terrible, just so-so. But he is the type of golfer who has the skills to do well at Summerlin. In fact, he's finished inside the top-25 the past two years (twin T23s). van Rooyen is ranked 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee for the season, 35th in SG: Putting and is a top-50 golfer in birdie or better. Those numbers may not sound all the great, but in this field they are.
Ben Silverman - $7,400 (+7000)
Canadians have shown an affinity for Summerlin -- Pendrith and Hadwin have played well here and so has Nick Taylor. Silverman (a Canadian) hasn't played here since 2017. But he's coming off a top-5 last time out at the Procore and he is an elite putter -- ranked fourth on Tour for the season.
$6,000-$6,900
Michael Kim - $6,700 (+11000)
Kim is becoming a must-follow on Twitter, covering a wide range of golf takes. But he needs to get a bit hotter on the course, as he sits 129th in the point standings. This could be a get-right week for him in Vegas (how many of us can say that?). Kim has missed all three cuts so far during the fall. But he lands well inside the cut line in our model, thanks to strong approach and tee-to-green play (putting, not so much). After missing four Shriners cuts in a row, Kim tied for 18th a year ago.
Carson Young - $6,700 (+12000)
We turned to Young last week and he delivered with a tie for 11th. There are a lot of similarities between last week's Black Desert track and TPC Summerlin. So here we are again. Young is one of the most accurate drivers on Tour, is a better than average putter and is ranked 33rd in birdie or better.
Davis Riley - $6,600 (+15000)
Riley has not done much since winning the Charles Schwab back in May. But his best club is his putter, and that always give him a puncher's chance. He just missed a top-25 here last year with a T28, and made the cut in his only other Shriners start. Maybe that's because Summerlin has such wide fairways and large greens.
Nate Lashley - $6,500 (+17000)
There was not a lot we liked at $6,500 and under. But we always like to give at least one option for those strapped to find a sixth golfer for their lineups. This week, it's Lashley. He's a vanilla sort of golfer good enough to be in the top 125 but not much higher. He's made the cut here three of the past four years, though with nothing better than a T35. Lashley is a short driver and that often makes things hard from the get-go. However, just about everyone hits it far in the Nevada desert.
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