This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Farmers Insurance Open
Courses
- Torrey Pines South (7,765 yards, par 72) [Host Course]
- Torrey Pines North (7,258 yards, par 72)
Purse: $9,000,000
Winner: $1,620,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The story in golf coming into the week is a 20-year-old phenom out of Alabama who became the first amateur to win a PGA Tour event since Phil Mickelson in 1991. Nick Dunlap is one of two players along with Tiger Woods to win both the U.S. Junior Amateur and the U.S. Amateur. Dunlap has a decision to make now after his victory at The American Express as to whether or not he will turn professional. The win locks up a PGA Tour card through the 2026 season and also secures him a place in the remaining seven Signature Events in 2024 should he turn professional. Dunlap received a sponsor invite for the Farmers Insurance Open, but elected to withdraw and enjoy the victory with friends and family at home.
Max Homa will look to defend his title this week and pick up his fifth PGA Tour win in his home state of California. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are the two other top-10 players in the OWGR teeing it up and both also have California connections of their own along with World No. 12 Collin Morikawa. Jason Day and Brandt Snedeker have a chance to join Mickelson with their third win at the Farmers Insurance Open, which is second all-time to Woods, who has won seven times along with the 2008 U.S. Open title at Torrey Pines.
This week will be another tournament that features multiple courses to get the field of 156 around in limited daytime hours. All players will get a round at both the Torrey Pines South Course and North Course before a 36-hole cut is made and the top-65 and ties battle it out on the difficult South Course for the final two rounds on Friday and Saturday this week. The North Course was redesigned in 2016 to give it a little more teeth, but it still is by far the easier of the two courses and it will be crucial to take advantage of it to set yourself up for a chance at the win.
Another thing to keep an eye on this week is the Aon Swing 5. This is the third straight full-field regular event on the PGA Tour and the top-five points earners through those three events will be assured of a spot at next week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which is now an 80-player Signature event that features a $20 million purse and 700 FedExCup points to the winner. The Aon Next 10 has already been locked in for Pebble Beach and the Genesis Invitational two weeks after following the completion of the 2023 FedExCup Fall. Grayson Murray, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Justin Thomas, Kevin Yu and Carl Yuan currently hold the Aon Swing 5 spots, although Murray is assured of a spot in the remaining Signature Events in 2024 after winning the Sony Open and Thomas is locked in for Pebble Beach by virtue of being a top-30 player in the OWGR.
If you've been tired of all the low scores through the first three events of the 2024 season, there is a good chance that ends this week. While the North Course is gettable, three of a player's rounds will be played at the nearly 7,800 yard South Course which features nasty kikuyu rough. Apart from an anomaly in 2019, the winning score at the Farmers Insurance Open has not been lower than 16-under-par since Tiger won by eight strokes in 2008 at 19-under. Even with some early-week rain to soften the course and relatively mild winds throughout the four tournament rounds, this week will certainly still be the biggest challenge players have faced to date in 2024.
Recent Champions
2023 - Max Homa (-13)
2022 - Luke List (-15)
2021 - Patrick Reed (-14)
2020 - Marc Leishman (-15)
2019 - Justin Rose (-21)
2018 - Jason Day (-10)
2017 - Jon Rahm (-13)
2016 - Brandt Snedeker (-6)
2015 - Jason Day (-9)
2014 - Scott Stallings (-9)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
Torrey Pines South is as demanding off the tee as any course on the PGA Tour. Players who drive it long and straight have a massive advantage here. The fairways are not overly wide and this rough gives player very little control coming into firm greens. Just look at some of the recent leaderboards here and you'll see a lot of players who rank pretty highly in SG: Off-the-Tee and total driving.
Even if you are fortunate enough to find the fairway, the job is far from finished. These greens feature a ton of shelves that can make it very difficult to to reach a certain hole location. If you are able to stick an approach on the correct tier, these poa annua greens are among some of the toughest on the PGA Tour to convert inside of 10 feet. Good putts will wobble offline for everyone at some point. This is a week where you really want the great drivers and iron players even if it means giving up something on the greens.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Max Homa ($11,600)
Whenever we can get Homa in California we take it and don't think twice. This man grew up on these types of courses and he knows how to putt on poa annua. Homa is the defending winner and has finished top-20 in this event three of the last four years. Last season was the best tee-to-green performance of his career ranking 15th in that category. Homa is as resilient as they come as he also led the bounce back stat last year.
Ludvig Aberg ($11,400)
Perhaps expectations were a little too high to start 2024 after finishes of T47-T30 in the two Hawaii events. The good news is that Torrey Pines aligns with the Swede's skillset perfectly. Last season Aberg ranked second in SG: Off-the-Tee and first in total driving. He was also third in GIR percentage and second in proximity. Par 5 performance is also crucial to scoring at Torrey and Aberg's 4.44 par 5 scoring average led all players.
Jason Day ($10,700)
Day's record at the Farmers Insurance Open is something to behold. Over his last 11 starts he has gone 8-for-11 with seven top-10s and two playoff victories. Day had a great comeback season in 2023 that saw him rise from outside the top 100 to inside the top 20 of the OWGR thanks to a win at the AT&T Byron Nelson and seven top-10 finishes. Day had a solid driving season at 37th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in total driving along with his usual brilliant performance both on and around the greens.
The Middle Tier
Nicolai Hojgaard ($9,900)
Hojgaard has been a busy man, posting finishes of T25 and T7 the last two weeks in Dubai, but he is coming over to make his 2024 PGA Tour debut on a perfect course for his skills. Much like Aberg, Hojgaard is an excellent ball striker who ranked fifth in driving distance and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green on the DP World Tour last season. The 22-year-old is destined to be a future top-15 player and it's better to be too early than too late with a price like this.
Sepp Straka ($9,800)
Straka has been on a hot streak ever since he won the John Deere Classic and finished runner-up at the Open Championship last summer. He has not finished worse than T22 in his last five starts worldwide, including a runner-up at the Hero World Challenge. Straka enjoys the challenge of Torrey Pines, having gone 3-for-4 with a pair of top-20 finishes. He ranked top-25 in both total driving and SG: Approach last season.
Luke List ($9,500)
This is certainly a place where you can get away with one of the worst putters on Tour. List has made the cut in six straight years at Torrey Pines with four top-25 finishes including a win two years ago. List has been one of the best ball strikers in the world for years and last season was top-10 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and GIR percentage. The 39-year-old has not missed a cut in his last nine starts which includes six top-25s and a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship.
The Long Shots
Austin Eckroat ($8,300)
Eckroat had a lot of high finishes throughout the spring and early summer months last year, but then went on a cold streak. The Oklahoma State product has rallied and now finished top-25 in three of his last four starts, including last week in the desert. One thing that Eckroat excelled at last season was driving where he ranked 34th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 17th in total driving. Through two starts this season Eckroat is also leading the PGA Tour in proximity to the hole.
Will Gordon ($7,900)
Gordon has bounced back from a streak of five straight missed cuts with five straight cashes, two of which were top-25s. Gordon has the type of game that should find success at Torrey Pines as last season he ranked 36th in SG: Off-the-Tee and seventh in total driving. The 27-year-old was also eighth in GIR percentage. Gordon is starting to get more experience on some of these courses, with this year being his fourth go-around the La Jolla track. He finished T21 here in 2020.
Chris Gotterup ($7,700)
Gotterup did not have the best showing at the AmEx, but short courses that are all about putting were never going to play into his hands. Beasts like Torrey Pines South with wobbly greens are exactly what should fit into Gotterup's wheelhouse who averaged nearly 325 yards off the tee on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. Gotterup put up a lot of strong showings on the PGA Tour in 2022 as a non-member, and I expect the 24-year-old to get back to that level this week.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Normally for this tournament it's important to keep an eye on the weather in the opening two rounds and then potentially stack a draw to have your players tee it up on the South Course on the easier weather day. That shouldn't be a concern this week as the forecasts for the first two rounds are nearly identical. This is a very deep field that doesn't feel top heavy at all, but maybe that just has to do with the long shot success the last three weeks. Nevertheless, there are a multitude of ways to construct a lineup this week, but hopefully I have hammered home the importance of driving this week. This is as good a week as any to litter your lineup with bombers even if the putting numbers from them aren't there.
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