This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
RBC Canadian Open
Course: Hamilton Golf and Country Club (7,084 yards, par 70)
Purse: $9,400,000
Winner: $1,692,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Well finally we come into the Canadian Open and don't have to talk about if the drought will end this year. Nick Taylor became the first Canadian Open to win his national open in 69 years with his thrilling playoff victory over Tommy Fleetwood last year. The RBC Canadian Open is always one of the best atmospheres on the PGA Tour and that place was rocking after Taylor holed a long eagle putt to seal the win. Now one of the 25+ Canadians in this field will be hoping to make it back to back home victories. The last two two Canadians won this national open in back-to-back years was Albert Murray and Karl Keffer in 1913 and 1914.
Canada has a bunch of great golf courses and it was of the only regular PGA Tour events that primarily rotates courses. Glen Abbey has hosted the most Canadian Opens with 30. This year it will return to Hamilton Golf and Country Club for a seventh time. The course underwent a massive restoration/renovation project since it last hosted the Canadian Open in 2019 when Rory McIlroy ran away from the field by seven shots. Golf Digest named Hamilton the "Best Renovation" in 2023. Lots of trees were removed, all bunkers were redone and modernized, all greens were rebuilt and now average 6,000 square feet vs. the 5,000 square feet it was before, new tee boxes were added and the irrigation system was updated.
A national open is always a big week, but this particular week is also big for a number of other reasons. This is the final week for players to lock up a spot in the final two Signature Events of the season, the Memorial Tournament and the Travelers Championship, via the Aon Next 10 or Aon Swing 5. Davis Riley tops the Aon Swing 5 after his win at Colonial last week, while Chris Gotterup is in second place after his win at the Myrtle Beach Classic. Davis Thompson, Mac Meissner and Pierceson Coody hold the final three spots. The RBC Canadian Open is also part of The Open Qualifying Series and offers three spots to the lowest three players at the Canadian Open who are not otherwise exempt.
It's unclear how much all the changes made to the golf course will affect the scoring. The last four Canadian Opens at Hamilton saw the scoring steadily rise. In 2003 Bob Tway won in a playoff over Brad Faxon at 8-under-par. In 2006 Jim Furyk won by one shot at 14-under-par. In 2012 Scott Piercy got his first PGA Tour win at 17-under-par. Then finally McIlroy won at 22-under-par and his 258 aggregate total set the tournament scoring record. While the course added a little over 100 yards, it is still a short test by PGA Tour standards at 7,084 yards on the card. That being said, last week we saw how firm the new greens at Colonial were and I would expect to see much the same for the first time around Hamilton. The weather looks like it is going to cooperate and we should see a lot of sunshine. Temperatures should steadily increase throughout the tournament and hit the mid-70s by Sunday. There won't be a whole lot of wind to contend with, however, and even if the course really starts to firm up we should still see some pretty good scoring.
Recent Champions
2023 - Nick Taylor -17 (Oakdale)
2022 - Rory McIlroy -19 (St. George's)
2021 - None
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy -22 (Hamilton)
2018 - Dustin Johnson -23 (Glen Abbey)
2017 - Jhonattan Vegas -21 (Glen Abbey)
2016 - Jhonattan Vegas -12 (Glen Abbey)
2015 - Jason Day -17 (Glen Abbey)
2014 - Tim Clark -17 (Royal Montreal)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Fairway Proximity
Champion's Profile
Hamilton Golf and Country Club is certainly a throwback course that rewards precision over power and allows so many different types of players to have a shot to win. As mentioned above the course is short and features six par-4s under 425 yards in length. That being said it is a course that will require every club in your bag with a few equally long par-4s and three of the four par-3s measuring at over 200 yards. Everything at Hamilton starts off the tee. The rough is a blend of bluegrass, poa and fescue measuring between three and four inches. It will be extremely difficult to get the ball to stop on these firm greens close to the hole coming from out of position. Drivers were only used 59 percent of the time in 2019 and we should again see plenty of fairway woods and irons hit off the tee this year.
Another aspect of Hamilton that doesn't get talked about enough is the elevation changes and rolling terrain. There will not be very many flat lies in these fairways and it will add one extra element for players to judge coming into a number of greens that are severely up or downhill. The elite ball-strikers will certainly be able to separate on a course like this. Fairway proximity will be a big stat to look at this week with how hard it will be to set up good opportunities out of this rough.
The greens were expanded to allow for more hole locations, but at 6,000 square feet they are still just under PGA Tour average. There are several short grass runoffs around all of these greens and it will lead to a lot of different options for players. We will see plenty of bump-and-runs to these elevated greens. Short game definitely needs to be a focus for DFS players this week. The putting surfaces will be bentrgrass again this week and will be prepped to run about 12 on the Stimpmeter.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,800)
McIlroy is getting the Scottie Scheffler treatment this week with this price $1,200 clear of Fleetwood, who is second on the salary board. It's pretty hard to argue with it considering he has gone Win-Win-T9 in his three starts in Canada, the first of which was that seven-shot runaway right here at Hamilton. McIlroy has a pair of wins in his last three starts this season and ranks first in total driving, 11th in fairway proximity and 28th in scrambling. Career PGA Tour win No. 27 is on the horizon.
Shane Lowry ($11,300)
McIlroy's winning teammate at the Zurich Classic was also his closest pursuer in 2019 at Hamilton. That was one of three top-12 finishes in five starts at the Canadian Open for Lowry. The Irishman rates out quite nicely for this golf course ranking third in par-4 BOB%, first in driving accuracy and 10th in SG: Approach. Lowry had been waiting on a good putting week and finally got that and then some at the PGA Championship. The last three times he has gained strokes on the greens he has finished T4-3rd-T6.
Alex Noren ($10,800)
Noren has absolutely been rolling and after a T12 finish at the PGA Championship he will be looking for his ninth consecutive top-25 this week. His combination of iron play and short game make him a strong selection for Hamilton. Noren ranks 24th in SG: Approach, sixth in GIR percentage, fifth in SG: Around-the-Green and second in scrambling. The Swede is also fourth in par-4 scoring and has gained strokes on the greens in seven of his last nine measured starts.
The Middle Tier
Aaron Rai ($10,200)
Rai fits the profile beautifully this week, and he has also finished T13 and T3 the last two years at the RBC Canadian Open. Rai ranks 10th in driving accuracy, fifth in GIR percentage, ninth in SG: Approach, 12th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 24th in scrambling. Those numbers scream consistent play and is a reason why he is seventh in bogey avoidance and has made 9-of-11 cuts with five top-25s in that stretch.
Davis Thompson ($9,700)
Thompson has quietly turned it up of late, going 6-for-7 with five top-25 finishes during that stretch, including a T2 at Myrtle Beach. I would bet not many would guess that he ranks fifth in scoring average this season. He is also 16th in par-4 BOB%. Thompson's biggest area of focus this week should be keeping the ball in the short grass. If he does that everything else will take care of itself, as he ranks 23rd in SG: Approach, 16th in GIR percentage and 48th in SG: Around-the-Green.
Greyson Sigg ($9,100)
Sigg is a solid play here in a pretty weak $9K range. He can be a little hit or miss, but the upside is certainly there with three top-15 finishes in his last five starts. Sigg is top-30 in par-3 and par-4 scoring while also ranking fourth in bogey avoidance. His iron play has been very impressive ranking top-20 in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and 20th in proximity to the hole. Sigg is an accurate driver that is also sixth in scrambling.
The Long Shots
Kevin Tway ($8,500)
Tway lost full playing status to start this season, but he has been on a roll since notching a solo third in Punta Cana. He followed that up with a T11 at the Zurich Classic, a T9 at the CJ Cup, which got him a spot in the Wells Fargo Championship Signature Event and then was T24 last week at Colonial. Tway has been strong on and around the greens during this run. He doesn't have enough rounds to qualify, but he would lead the PGA Tour in fairway proximity.
Mac Meissner ($8,200)
This rookie has been quite profitable for DFS players in recent months. He has made four of his last six cuts with a trio of top-15 finishes during that stretch, including a T5 at Colonial last week. Meissner has flashed on approach and around the greens this season. He ranks 54th in SG: Approach, 18th in fairway proximity, 18th in SG: Around-the-Green and 40th in scrambling. The 25-year-old has also gained strokes on the greens in five of his last seven measured starts.
Ben Martin ($8,000)
There's not a lot of great options down this far, but Martin is interesting given that this course isn't long and his iron play is so strong. The 36-year-old ranks 21st in SG: Approach and ninth in proximity to the hole. Martin also is pretty solid from a scrambling perspective and has been better than average with the putter this season. He will be looking to make his eighth cut in his last 10 starts.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is a top-heavy field that drops off rather quickly after the $10K range. Most of the top players who are in this field have either played well in this event before, are Canadians or are RBC ambassadors. It makes sense for a number of higher ranked players to skip this week with two Signature Events and a major sandwiched in between them over the next three weeks. There are some similarities between a lot of the courses in the Canadian Open rotation, but no course is exactly alike. With limited data to pull from Hamilton and the course undergoing several changes since 2019, recent form and course fit should take precedent. Elite iron and short game players who keep the ball in play is the direction to go for this week.
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