This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Shriners Children's Open
Course: TPC Summerlin (7,255 yards, par 71)
Purse: $7,000,000
Winner: $1,260,000 and 500 FedExCup Fall points
Tournament Preview
The fourth event of the FedExCup Fall takes us to Las Vegas for the 41st playing of the Shriners Children's Open. This event has become a staple of the fall schedule and always leads to some fireworks. TPC Summerlin is one of the most gettable courses on the PGA Tour and has seen a winning score of at least 20-under-par in six straight years. Tom Kim has won the last two editions and is looking to become the first player to three-peat at a PGA Tour event since Steve Stricker won the John Deere Classic three years in a row from 2009 to 2011.
This event was formerly known as the Las Vegas Invitational and was played over five days with a Pro-Am element similar to how The American Express used to be back in the day. Tiger Woods picked up his first PGA Tour win at the Las Vegas Invitational back in 1996 winning in a playoff over Davis Love III after shooting rounds of 70-63-68-67-64. The event was changed to a standard 72-hole event back in 2004. The aggregate scoring record in this event is 260 on this now par-71 done four previous times by Ryan Moore (2012), Webb Simpson (2013), Sungjae Im (2021) and Tom Kim (2022). Jim Furyk is the lone three-time winner of the event, but Kim or Martin Laird could join that club on Sunday evening.
The hottest man in golf at the moment very well could be Matt McCarty. The 26-year-old lefty was the Korn Ferry Tour No. 1 and graduated to the PGA Tour thanks to the three-win promotion. Not only did McCarty do that, but he then put together a sensational week at the Black Desert Championship to win by three strokes and lock up a spot in the Masters next year. Now inside the top-50 of the OWGR, McCarty will tee it up again this week in Vegas looking to continue his climb to the top. There is some other solid names looking to take him down, however, as there are nine players teeing it up in Vegas who finished inside the top-50 of the FedExCup last season. Kim missed out on the top 50 by one spot last season, but he is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 25.
I mentioned that TPC Summerlin is a very gettable course, but the conditions on tap should limit how deep the players are able to take it. There is a cold front coming in that will see temperatures plummet from early-week highs in the mid-90s to highs in the high-60s and low-70s Friday through Sunday. The winds will also be significant Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. It will certainly be a different kind of test that what we normally see on this course.
Recent Champions
2023 - Tom Kim (-20)
2022 - Tom Kim (-24)
2021 - Sungjae Im (-24)
2020 - Martin Laird (-23)
2019 - Kevin Na (-23)
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau (-21)
2017 - Patrick Cantlay (-9)
2016 - Rod Pampling (-20)
2015 - Smylie Kaufman (-16)
2014 - Ben Martin (-20)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- Bogey Avoidance/Par-4 Scoring
Champion's Profile
The Shriners Children's Open is typically your standard birdie barrage where we value hitting greens and sinking putts, but short game will certainly play a much bigger factor than normal this week. The high winds will decrease GIR percentage across the board and naturally make players have to scramble more. The cooler temperatures will also lead to longer approaches into holes. I'll be looking for quality long iron players who have a reliable short game. The wide fairways and minimal rough also lend itself to bombers having a nice go at it. Bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring are usually two other telling stats for a test like what the players will be facing this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Taylor Pendrith ($11,800)
Pendrith closed out the FedExCup season hot, going T5-5th-T22-T13-T14. He has also made 14 of his last 15 cuts with 12 top-25s in that stretch. He's been one of the best putters on the PGA Tour this year, but his iron play the last few months also deserves a lot of credit. Pendrith has gained on approach in his last five starts. He also has the distance you covet on a course and test like this. Pendrith was T3 a year ago in Las Vegas.
Davis Thompson ($11,700)
Thompson checks all the boxes for me. He has gained strokes off the tee in 14 of his last 15 measured events, his iron play has been consistent all year and he ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in SG: Around-the-Green. Thompson has not missed a cut in his last nine starts and has a win at the John Deere Classic among four top-12 finishes during that stretch. He also has a T12 in Las Vegas back in 2022.
Beau Hossler ($11,300)
Hossler has stayed busy this fall and is coming off a runner-up at the Sanderson Farms and a T11 in Utah. He now comes to a course in TPC Summerlin that he has never missed a cut at in six appearances. He has also posted a pair of T7 finishes here -- including last year -- and has gained strokes both around the green and with the putter in every try at Summerlin. He ranks 20th in bogey avoidance and 13th in par-4 scoring this year.
The Middle Tier
Ben Griffin ($10,400)
Griffin might get skipped over for other players in the $10K range with much better records at TPC Summerlin, but he fits exactly the type of skillset I'm looking for in these conditions. Griffin has gained strokes on approach in 10-of-12 starts and around the green in seven of his last nine. He ranks 41st-or-better this year in SG: Approach, SG: Around-the-Green and SG: Putting. Griffin is also 13th in bogey avoidance and T3 in par-4 scoring average.
J.J. Spaun ($9,900)
Throw out one poor round at the Sanderson Farms where he was forced to withdraw and it has been a lot of good for Spaun the last several months. Apart from that WD, he has made eight straight cuts with three top-10s and seven top-30s in that stretch. Spaun has gained strokes on approach in 13 of his last 15 measured starts and ranks top-20 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity. He has three top-15s in Las Vegas to boot.
Doug Ghim ($9,100)
Ghim has arguably been the best iron player in this field, and you can get him at an excellent price. He ranks top-10 in SG: Approach, GIR percentage and proximity. Ghim also ranks 33rd in scrambling, eighth in bogey avoidance and 13th in par-4 scoring. He is going to excel when conditions get tougher and he hasn't missed a cut in the U.S. since late June.
The Long Shots
Charley Hoffman ($8,800)
Anytime there is wind involved, Hoffman is someone you have to look out for. He's historically been a strong iron player who knows how to control his trajectory when the breezes get up. Hoffman is in good form as well having made his last six cuts with a pair of top-12s and four top-30s in that stretch. The UNLV product has an extensive history at TPC Summerlin having played there 17 times and logging five top-20s.
Matt NeSmith ($8,200)
If you're going to take a shot on anyone down this far, why not a man who has a strong record at TPC Summerlin and is known for his iron play. NeSmith has four top-20 finishes in five starts in Las Vegas, including a T2 in 2022. He has also gained strokes on the greens in all four of those top-20 results, so clearly he sees the lines well here. NeSmith ranks 15th in GIR percentage and 32nd in proximity to the hole this year.
Trace Crowe ($8,000)
Crowe has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five and around the greens in each of those five starts. He's never been to TPC Summerlin before, but he profiles well for the course and conditions. The 29-year-old ranks 12th in proximity to the hole, and in particular excels with long irons in his hands. Crowe is also 12th in putts per GIR and T3 in par-4 scoring this year.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Considering that the worst of the weather is coming before the cut happens, I think it's wise to focus first on players who play well in wind or are excellent iron players/scramblers. The high birdie average players and putters could come back on the weekend when things calm, but you got to make it to Saturday first. I'll be fading Kim ($12,600) as he attempts the three-peat as that number is just too high to pay for a player who hasn't played in a stroke-play event since the FedEx St. Jude Championship in mid-August. Even with rust not being a factor, the strength of the $11K and $10K ranges make it easy to pass on a player $800 more than the No. 2 option on the board.
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