This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Sentry
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua (7,596 yards, par 73)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
2025 is here and that means that we are ready to kick off another season on the PGA Tour. A year ago the PGA Tour decided to return to a calendar-based schedule, as opposed to the wraparound schedule, which I must say just feels so much more natural starting the FedExCup season in Maui. We've had over a full month off from the last official PGA Tour event at the RSM Classic, which finalized the membership status for this 2025 season. While compared to other sports that sounds like nothing, but considering in the wraparound-era we had just one week off from the TOUR Championship until the start of the next season, players can at least be happy about one change the Tour has made in recent years.
What for years was known as the "Tournament of Champions" has been rebranded to just "The Sentry", as it's no longer just a winner's only event. Instead it is now one of the eight Signature Events on the PGA Tour, which guarantees entry for the top 50 players in the FedExCup last season, which brings things the field size up to 60 players this season instead of just limiting it to the typical 30-40 winners from the previous season. That being said, 60 players will be the smallest Signature Event field of the year, as there will be no players on the Aon Next 10 or Aon Swing 5 that get in this week, as well as no sponsor invites.
64 players actually qualified for The Sentry, but a couple big names will not be teeing it up. First and foremost is 2024 PGA Tour Player of the Year Scottie Scheffler who sliced his right hand open on a piece of broken glass on Christmas. Scheffler is expected to be back to 100 percent soon and is scheduled to make his season debut at The American Express Jan. 16-19. The No. 1 ranked player won four of the eight Signature Events in 2024. Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry are the other three players who qualified for The Sentry that will also be skipping the opening event of the season. There's no injury issues here, all three are expected to begin their season at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic (Jan. 16-19). McIlroy has only played The Sentry once in his career.
There will still be six of the top 10 and 15 of the top 20 in the OWGR teeing it up at Kapalua. The favorite is now the man who won two majors a season ago in Xander Schauffele. The No. 2 ranked player has an opportunity to kick off 2025 strong at a place where he won back in 2019. World No. 4 Collin Morikawa and No. 5 Ludvig Aberg are hoping to do something they did not do in 2024...Win. Both players were incredibly consistent, but were just never able to cross the finish line first. Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Max Homa and Will Zalatoris are some other notable names in the field looking to have a bounce-back year in 2025. A win at Kapalua would certainly be a hell of a way to start.
There's perhaps no other event I get more jealous watching on TV than The Sentry. While much of the continental U.S. has been bundled up for the last couple months, it will predictably be beautiful weather at Kapalua with temperatures reaching into the low-80s and plenty of sunshine. The Plantation Course is also as stunning as any on the PGA Tour with dramatic elevation changes and breathtaking views. Expect to see plenty of birdies and eagles this week, as the average winning score over the last four years has been 28.75-under-par, including when Cameron Smith set the PGA Tour record score to par at 34-under when he won back in 2022. Some people aren't a big fan of birdie barrages, me being one of them, but the shot values at Kapalua are just so much higher than a lot of other run of the mill courses that get torn up on Tour. It forces players to be creative and pull off a lot of different types of shots to be able to shoot low scores.
Recent Champions
2024 - Chris Kirk (-29)
2023 - Jon Rahm (-27)
2022 - Cameron Smith (-34)
2021 - Harris English (-25)
2020 - Justin Thomas (-14)
2019 - Xander Schauffele (-23)
2018 - Dustin Johnson (-24)
2017 - Justin Thomas (-22)
2016 - Jordan Spieth (-30)
2015 - Patrick Reed (-21)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/Proximity
- SG: Putting/Putts per GIR
- SG: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
- Birdie Average/Par-5 Scoring
Champion's Profile
Most people see a par 73 at nearly 7,600 yards and the widest fairways on Tour and think that Kapalua is just a bomber's paradise, but that really isn't the case. With the dramatic elevation changes and fairway undulation, it's really just dependent on the wind and the bounce the fairway that determine where the ball ends up. A lot of short hitters have had success at Kapalua because at the end of the day everyone is going to have a lot of short irons into greens. Despite the massive putting surfaces, short game actually is very important here. Last year Chris Kirk led the field in SG: Around-the-Green and scrambling on his way to victory. A lot of the scrambling might be for birdie instead of pars, but still there's going to be opportunities to take advantage of, as a lot of greens feed off into awkward pitching areas. A player dialed in on and around these greens is going to be making a lot of birdies around this place. The par-5s are also important to take advantage of. All four played at least a half-shot under-par last year and the field made 49 eagles on them.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Xander Schauffele ($12,600)
Schauffele has the game and course history that makes him an excellent play. You get the elite ball-striking at second in SG: Tee-to-Green last season, but also the performance on the greens at 12th in SG: Putting. Schauffele has four top-10 finishes at Kapalua, including a year ago. His T41 finish in his lone fall start at the ZOZO Championship was his first finish outside the top-25 since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Collin Morikawa ($12,100)
Morikawa has finished T7-T7-T5-2nd-T5 in five career starts at Kapalua. That's really not a surprise given how elite his short-iron play is. Morikawa made big strides to improve his short game and putting last season, and they paid off ranking 10th in SG: Around-the-Green, ninth in scrambling and fourth in putts per GIR. 2025 has all the makings of a big year for Morikawa and it wouldn't be a shock to see him start off with a bang.
Sungjae Im ($11,100)
Im set a PGA Tour record last year at The Sentry when he tallied 34 birdies en route to a T5 finish. Im has just been a birdie machine since he came out on Tour. He's so skilled through the bag and ranked top-30 on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, scrambling and putts per GIR last season. Im has finished T5-T8-T13-T5 in four career starts at Kapalua. He also closed 2024 having finished T13-or-better in 13 of 17 starts.
The Middle Tier
Max Greyserman ($10,200)
Greyserman might not have won in 2024 nor won Rookie of the Year, but he was far and away the best rookie when you look at the strokes gained data. Greyserman wielded a lighting rod putter that ranked second in strokes gained and seventh in birdie average. He ended 2024 having finished top-four in four of his final six starts. You gotta make a lot of putts to contend at Kapalua and Greyserman is certainly the man for the job.
Robert MacIntyre ($9,800)
Kapalua fits everything that MacIntyre does well. He is a very creative player used to playing in the wind, and his short game and putting are excellent at 14th in scrambling and 35th in SG: Putting. It took MacIntyre a while to get going in 2024, but once he did it was wraps. The Scot claimed two PGA Tour victories over the summer and closed the year with seven straight top-25 finishes.
Jason Day ($9,100)
Day has been arguably the best putter over the last decade and he turned in another special season in that department in 2024. He closed the season gaining strokes in 17 straight measured starts to rank ninth for the year in SG: Putting. It shouldn't come as much of a shock because of that elite putting that Day has never finished worse than 13th at Kapalua in six career starts. The 37-year-old still has some left in the tank coming into 2025 off six top-25s in his last seven starts.
The Long Shots
Taylor Pendrith ($8,500)
Pendrith is simply too low this week for a man that was 18th in SG: Total and 15th in adjusted scoring average last season. The long-hitter is also elite on the greens where he ranked fifth in SG: Putting and fourth in putts per GIR. Pendrith was 14th in par-5 scoring average last season and comes into 2025 having finished top 25 in 14 of his last 17 starts.
Eric Cole ($7,900)
I know it's a loaded field, but something about Cole in the $7K range just doesn't look right. He finished top-15 in his first start at Kapalua last year, and has finished top-20 in seven of his last 12 starts overall. Over that stretch Cole has gained consistently on approach, around the greens and with the putter. All key things on a course where you need to make a bunch of birdies, something Cole excels at.
Nico Echavarria ($7,600)
If you believe in players carrying a hot streak from the fall into the new year, then Echavarria should be your man. He played as much as anyone in the fall and picked up his first win at the ZOZO Championship. Echavarria nearly claimed victory at the World Wide Technology Championship and The RSM Classic as well. He finished top-25 at The Sentry last year and has been putting extremely well of late.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Another important thing to remember this week is that there will be no cut. That combined with the potential for birdies and eagles flying all over the place, keeps everyone in the mix until Sunday for the most part. If the 54-hole leader makes 18 pars on Sunday, he will more than likely be lucky to stay inside the top-10. Justin Thomas ($11,900) has a good history at Kapalua, and while I expect him to have a great year, I don't think this is the spot for him given his continued issues on the greens. The same goes for Ludvig Aberg ($11,800) who's one glaring weakness is his short game. A couple other sleepers in each range to keep an eye out for would be Sam Burns ($10,600), J.T. Poston ($9,400) and Harry Hall ($7,900).
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