This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship
Course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (7,340 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,400,000
Winner: $1,512,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
After three weeks of compelling golf, the Florida Swing will end this week at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, the favorite course of many PGA Tour players on the Florida Swing. The Valspar Championship has previously been a 144-man field, but has been increased to 156 players to try to get as many playing opportunities as possible to players near the bottom of the priority list. This week is the first of three straight "regular events" on the PGA Tour, all of which are spots for many players who are not exempt to win and secure one of the final places in The Masters.
The field features a number of notables as well with 10 players in the top 30 of the OWGR. Leading that list are Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman, who both came agonizingly close to winning THE PLAYERS Championship last week. Taylor Moore will be back to defend his title this week after beating out Adam Schenk by one shot a year ago. Sam Burns won this event in both 2021 and 2022 and will be in action in Palm Harbor along with 2015 champion Jordan Spieth. This will be the 23rd edition of the Valspar Championship which has seen three other repeat winners along with Burns in K.J. Choi (2002, 2006), Retief Goosen (2003, 2009) and Paul Casey (2018, 2019).
Unlike most Florida courses, the Copperhead Course does indeed feature a lot of elevation change, which provides a new challenge for players to deal with. They will also have to make it through the famed "Snake Pit" trio of closing holes without too much damage to be able to hoist the trophy on Sunday evening. Vijay Singh still holds the tournament scoring record of 18-under-par set back in 2004 when he won by five strokes. This tournament is known for coming down to the wire with a margin of one stroke or less in eight of the last nine years.
After a perfect weather week in Ponte Vedra Beach, this week will have a challenge to hurdle. After a very nice first round forecast, storms are expected to hit the course on Friday and potentially impact the schedule. It wouldn't be a surprise to see a delay and force players to finish up their second rounds Saturday morning. The weekend should be a return to sunshine and feature winds that may gust up into the mid-20 mph range, which may make things just challenging enough for the players even on a soft golf course.
Recent Champions
2023 - Taylor Moore (-10)
2022 - Sam Burns (-17)
2021 - Sam Burns (-17)
2020 - None
2019 - Paul Casey (-8)
2018 - Paul Casey (-10)
2017 - Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016 - Charl Schwartzel (-7)
2015 - Jordan Spieth (-10)
2014 - John Senden (-7)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- Scrambling
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Par-3 Scoring Average
Champion's Profile
The Copperhead Course is similar to TPC Sawgrass in terms of how it is all about angles and positioning. You need to put the ball in the fairway if you want to give yourself good looks at birdies and it will force players to work the ball in both directions. The big difference with TPC Sawgrass, however, is that there is a lot more elevation changes, which will put even more emphasis on iron play and distance control. This was the hardest par 71 on the PGA Tour last season at a stroke average of 71.935. The big reason for that is because there are five par-3s with the shortest one measuring 195 yards on the card. The four par 5s are also some of the stingiest on the PGA Tour.
If the storms soak this place on Friday like it looks like, that will create an even bigger emphasis on hitting fairways and avoiding the 3.5 inches of overseeded rough, but due to the length of the holes and lack of runout, players will have to carve it through these trees with driver more than they may have hoped to. This tournament tends to be much more about scrambling than make a bunch of birdies. We are definitely looking to find shot-makers who also excel in the scrambling department this week.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Sam Burns ($12,100)
Burns has eaten the Copperhead Course up during his career with a pair of wins among four top-12 finishes in five starts. These have to be his favorite greens to putt because he has run the tables on them in virtually every start. Burns ranks top-25 this season in bogey avoidance, par 3, par 4 and par 5 scoring. He has also gained on approach and off-the-tee in his last five starts and hasn't missed a cut anywhere since the Open Championship last year.
Justin Thomas ($11,900)
Thomas burned me last week as he did many other DFS players missing the cut for the first time at TPC Sawgrass. I'm hoping that scares some people off this week as we head to another great course for the 30-year-old. Thomas has finished top-20 in five of his six starts at the Valspar Championship, including a T3 in 2022. He continues to dominate with the irons where he ranks sixth this season in SG: Approach. Thomas also has the elite short game to help him get around.
Jordan Spieth ($11,800)
Another player who missed the cut last week, Spieth will be looking to rebound on a course that he has a win on in 2015 among five top-20 finishes in six career starts. We know how good the short game is as Spieth has gained strokes around the greens in 10 of his last 11 starts. He has also gained strokes in five of his last seven approaching the green on and off-the-tee in six of seven. He is back to the Spieth of old on the greens ranking ninth in SG: Putting this season.
The Middle Tier
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($10,000)
Bezuidenhout has typically be known as more of a putter throughout his time on the PGA Tour, but his iron play this season has been fantastic. He has gained on approach in seven of his eight starts and ranks eighth in SG: Approach and third in proximity for the season. Dating back to last fall Bezuidenhout has been strong with four top-10s and eight top-25s over his last 13 starts. That includes a T13 at TPC Sawgrass last week.
Doug Ghim ($9,700)
Ghim just keeps on rolling as he now has five straight top-20 finishes after a T16 at TPC Sawgrass. It's really amazing that you can get the player who ranks fourth on the PGA Tour this season in SG: Total at under $10K in this field. He ranks top-20 in driving accuracy, SG: Approach and scrambling. Ghim has also gained nearly eight strokes on the greens in his last two starts, both of which were on Florida courses.
Victor Perez ($8,800)
The Frenchman got off to a slow start in his first full PGA Tour season but went T16 at PGA National and then T3 in Puerto Rico. Perez has been on it from a ball-striking perspective, as he ranks 11th in total driving, second in GIR percentage, 14th in SG: Approach and 15th in proximity. That should all play to his benefit at the Copperhead Course where positioning is so key.
The Long Shots
Greyson Sigg ($8,300)
Sigg checks all the boxes we're looking for this week. He hits fairways, is very accurate on approach and features a solid short game. Sigg ranks 16th this season in driving accuracy, 19th in SG: Approach and 20th in scrambling. He is also second on the PGA Tour in par-3 scoring, which will be handy given there will be five of them each round and they all are long. If Sigg can just get some putts to drop he is going to be in the mix.
Carson Young ($8,100)
Young's missed cut at THE PLAYERS snapped a streak of five straight cashes, including a T8 in Mexico. His ball-striking has been consistent in 2024 gaining strokes on approach in six of seven and off-the-tee in six of seven. Young ranks 26th in total driving, 24th in SG: Approach and 28th in proximity this season. If he can up his scrambling numbers just a bit he should be on track for a solid finish at Innisbrook.
Parker Coody ($7,600)
This is a terrific upside play. Coody has been crushing it with the irons this season, gaining strokes in his last four measured events and ranking 20th in SG: Approach. He also is a very solid 33rd in SG: Around-the-Green, not usually an easy part of the game for a rookie. Coody has struggled to get into events this season due to his priority number, but has only missed the cut twice in six starts along with a pair of top-25 results.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
After a stacked $9K range a week ago, this week I would say it is just okay. I would be more in favor of a stars and scrubs approach this week with players that have really strong records at Innisbrook near the top and actually quite a few gems in that lower $8K and upper $7K range. Chan Kim ($8,200), Jacob Bridgeman ($7,700), Nico Echavarria ($7,600) and Justin Lower ($7,400) would be a few other long shots I would take a chance on. TPC Sawgrass is such a volatile course where scores can go either way quite easily that I'm not putting too much stock in for poor performances. I do think there's a chance Schauffele ($12,300) and Harman ($11,100) could be a little slow out of the gate after getting so close last week and using up a lot of emotional energy in such a big event. I would look in a different direction this week.
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