This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Wells Fargo Championship
Course: Quail Hollow Club (7,558 yards, par 71)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $3,600,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
After a couple weeks off for many of the top players, the field is stacked again this week for the sixth of eight Signature Events this season. The good news for all of these other top players, however, is that Scottie Scheffler will not be in the field to take another trophy away. Last we saw Scheffler he was winning the previous Signature Event at the RBC Heritage and then returned home to be with his pregnant wife Meredith. It's unclear where things stand in regards to the baby, but we should expect to see Scheffler tee it up at the PGA Championship next week at Valhalla. Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg (knee) are the only qualified players that are not teeing it up at the Wells Fargo Championship. The field will be 69 players and there will be no cut.
As always the majority of the field for this Signature Event is made up from the top-50 in the FedExCup last season. We also have a stacked group in the Aon Next 10 highlighted by Zurich Classic winner Shane Lowry and the 2017 PGA Championship winner at Quail Hollow in Justin Thomas. There was also a lot of movement in the Aon Swing 5 at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson that includes champion Taylor Pendrith, runner-up Ben Kohles and Corales Puntacana Championship winner Billy Horschel. Quail Hollow resident Webb Simpson received one of four available sponsor exemptions this week along with Gary Woodland, Adam Scott and Matt Kuchar. There will be 132 players in the newest alternate-field event on the PGA Tour the Myrtle Beach Classic this week. Those players will hope to earn FedExCup points at The Dunes Golf and Beach Club, the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial and the RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf & Country Club to be apart of either the Aon Next 10 or Aon Swing 5 that make it into the Memorial Tournament on June 6-9.
Lets not get too far ahead of ourselves, though. This will be the 21st edition of the Wells Fargo Championship, but also potentially the last. It was announced in December that Wells Fargo would no longer be sponsoring this tournament after this year. The PGA Tour has increased the sponsorship price across the board, but in particularly for Signature Events, and Wells Fargo was the first to balk at what they were asking to host one of these prestigious events going forward. It's unclear if the Tour plans to look for another sponsor to host a Signature Event at Quail Hollow or whether a different event would be in position to host one in 2025.
We've gotten a chance to see Quail Hollow a lot in recent years beyond just the Wells Fargo Championship. As mentioned previously it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship won by Justin Thomas as well as the Presidents Cup in 2022 won by the United States. The club is slated to host the PGA Championship for a second time in 2025. To prepare for another major championship, Quail Hollow redid all the tees and greens, installed a new drainage system and overhauled the bunkers. It is a big boy golf course that requires the total package to be able to win. Players will also have to navigate "The Green Mile" which features one of the toughest three-hole closing stretches in all of golf. This is an ideal test for the PGA Championship next week at Valhalla.
This was really the tournament last year for Wyndham Clark that put everything in motion to him now being the No. 3 ranked player in the OWGR. His 265 total set the tournament aggregate scoring record as he went pretty much heads up against Xander Schauffele on Sunday and beat him by four strokes. Rory McIlroy holds the score-to-par record of 21-under back in 2015 when Quail Hollow was still a par 72. The Northern Irishman has won this event a record three times and his 61 in round three of 2015 remains the course record. Max Homa is the only other player to win the Wells Fargo Championship more than once, but his win in 2022 came at TPC Potomac.
It's thunderstorm season so there's a chance we could see some delays at any point this week. It looks as if we will get some weather Thursday afternoon, which will also bring with it some gusty winds and some cooler temperatures for the rest of the tournament. With only 70 players in the field this week, we shouldn't have any issue completing play by Sunday evening and getting everyone out to the PGA Championship on time. Hopefully we can avoid a lot of precipitation this week and we see a true test with a winning score somewhere in that low double-digit under-par range.
Recent Champions
2023 - Wyndham Clark (-19)
2022 - Max Homa (-8) *TPC Potomac
2021 - Rory McIlroy (-10)
2020 - None
2019 - Max Homa (-15)
2018 - Jason Day (-12)
2017 - Brian Harman (-10) *Eagle Point GC
2016 - James Hahn (-9)
2015 - Rory McIlroy (-21)
2014 - J.B. Holmes (-14)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach/GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance
- SG: Putting
- Par-4 Scoring
Champion's Profile
I mentioned this is a big boy golf course and unlike the previous Signature Event at Harbour Town where players could use a variety of different clubs off tees, we will see the driver come out of the bag on virtually every par-4 and par-5 at Quail Hollow. There is room to spray it a bit off the tee and get away with it, as the rough is not overly penal. It's no surprise to see strong drivers like McIlroy and Clark find success at this venue.
Iron play is important every week, but it is worth noting that last year Clark led the field in SG: Approach on his way to victory and Harris English and Tyrrell Hatton, who finished T3, both ranked top-4 in SG: Approach at Quail Hollow. The greens are large, but usually are pretty firm and require a high ball flight and soft touch to get the ball to stop close to the hole locations. That won't always be easy considering that there are five par-4s that stretch over 480 yards and all four of the par-3s that measure over 180 yards. Safe to say elite long iron players will have no issues separating themselves in that department this week.
I will also be pretty keen in looking at some of the stronger putters this week. While it's tough to overcome distance, these large bermudagrass greens presents an opportunity for the strong putters to make up some ground. Most of the short game shots around these greens will be fairly straight forward, but these are tricky greens to read and if you're struggling with the putter it's not going to be a fun place to try and go around.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Rory McIlroy ($12,300)
If there is going to be anyone that can bring the fight to Scheffler over the second half of the season, McIlroy would seem to be most likely option, especially with what is upcoming after he got his mojo back with a victory alongside Lowry at the Zurich Classic. Quail Hollow is probably his best course on Tour, and his last major win came at the site of next week's PGA Championship. McIlroy has finished worse than T22 just twice in 12 starts at Quail Hollow and has those three wins and five other top-10s.
Xander Schauffele ($12,100)
Schauffele's Data Golf page is so green. You have to squint to find some red over his last 25 starts where he lost strokes in any category. Unsurprisingly, Schauffele has finished top-25 in 22 of those starts and has not missed a cut since the 2022 Masters. The level of consistency has been off the charts we just need to see him get back in the win column. Schauffele ranks top-5 this season in par-4 scoring, SG: Tee-to-Green, proximity outside of 200 yards and scrambling. He has gone T14 and 2nd in his last two tries at Quail Hollow.
Sahith Theegala ($10,500)
Theegala will have room to move the ball around at Quail Hollow with the driver. He has gained strokes off-the-tee in his last seven starts and sits 21st in that category for the season. Theegala also continues to make progress with his iron play gaining strokes in seven of his last eight starts. The putting is what is super encouraging at eighth in strokes gained and it should help propel him to his sixth top-10 of the season, and possibly even win No. 2 on the PGA Tour this week.
The Middle Tier
Si Woo Kim ($10,100)
Kim continues to rack up good results. His T13 last week at the Byron Nelson made in four top-20s in his last five starts and put him 12-for-12 in making the cut this season. Kim ranks top-25 this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green. He is also top-25 in par-4 scoring, par-5 scoring and scrambling. The putter is the one thing that scares people off, but he is a net positive on the greens over his last five starts. Kim impressed a lot of people at the Presidents Cup here a couple years ago.
Alex Noren ($9,800)
It's hard to argue with the consistency Noren is displaying all the way through the bag. In his last five measured tournaments, Noren has gained strokes in every category of every event except for SG: Putting at the Valero Texas Open. He has made his last 15 cuts while racking up a trio of podium finishes and 11 top-30s. Noren is second to Scheffler in scoring average and GIR percentage this season, and leads the PGA Tour in scrambling. The 41-year-old is primed for his first PGA Tour win.
Akshay Bhatia ($9,400)
Bhatia makes a lot of sense this week. For starters he is currently fifth on the PGA Tour in SG: Total this season, led of course by his all-world iron play which ranks sixth in SG: Approach. Bhatia is also 19th in total driving, eighth in proximity to the hole, 31st in scrambling and 15th in par-4 scoring. What has me most encouraged is that he has gained strokes on the greens in his last five starts, four of which have been top-20s including that win in San Antonio.
The Long Shots
Rickie Fowler ($8,700)
After racking up 18 (!) top-25 finishes last season on the PGA Tour, it took Fowler 11 starts to finally notch his first one this season with a T18 at the RBC Heritage. After a brutal start to 2024, there have been some baby steps, with Fowler gaining strokes on approach in 4-of-5, around the green in his last five and with the putter in 5-of-7. If ever there was a place for him to put it all together it would be Quail Hollow, where he owns five top-6 finishes and nine top-25s in 12 career starts.
Lucas Glover ($8,200)
Glover probably has the most experience at Quail Hollow of anyone other than Simpson. He has made a whopping 18 starts here and racked up five top-10s, including a win in 2011. Glover put together a torrid run towards the end of last season, and while he hasn't had the high finishes yet this season he still has finished top-35 in 7-of-8. Even at 44 he remains one of the top iron players on Tour at ninth in SG: Approach and fourth in proximity. Glover is also top-20 in SG: Around-the-Green and par-4 scoring.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,700)
You don't see too many players like Grillo who start their career with the putter being the weakest part of their game before developing into one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. That's been the case for the 31-year-old who currently ranks 20th in SG: Putting. Grillo has tapered off a little bitt since a T7-T20-T14-T22 stretch early in the season, but Quail Hollow would be a great place for him to get back on track having finished T9-T14-T23 in his last three starts there while gaining over 17 strokes on approach.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
McIlroy and Schauffele are head and shoulders above the rest of the field this week for me. There is room to roster them both and have an $8,900 average left to use among your last four players. That's extremely doable considering the amount of depth there is in the field this week and not a lot of really sparkling records around Quail Hollow. Tony Finau ($9,900), Byeong Hun An ($9,300), and Sepp Straka ($9,200) make for some other nice options in a stacked $9K range not mentioned above. Thursday is going to be far and away the worst weather day with some really high wind gusts. While there's only 69 players and they will be going out in twosomes, a late Thursday tee time could prove to be better if storms develop and there's a chance those players end up playing less golf Thursday. At the end of the day, however, everyone is going to be playing four rounds and there will be a lot of movement that happens all the way through Sunday afternoon. Signature Events without a cut are really the best events to be aggressive in for DFS purposes.
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