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2024 Black Desert Championship: Brand new
Two hours northeast of Las Vegas in southwest Utah sits a stunning setting of red rock mountains overlooking beautiful black lava fields. The Black Desert Championship is a new event on the schedule and if this landscape is any precursor of the competition, it should be very entertaining. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and Phil Smith, the course opened in 2023. Not only is this a new event, but this is a brand-new course. In many ways, it fits the fall. We always see new names popping up in autumn on leaderboards. Look at last week in Mississippi. Kevin Yu wins in a playoff over Beau Hossler.
If you saw my Monday Odds Drop article in Golf Digest, then you know where I see value in a betting board like Black Desert. We are going to attack the mid-range. Players in the +3000-9000 that can win a tournament. Congrats to Kevin for his brilliant birdie on the first extra hole. The PGA TOUR is extremely deep in talent, and when the world's best take the fall off, the middle tier at the top of the betting board cannot separate from the field. What does that mean? The difference between Scottie, Xander, and even Russell Henley is pretty significant over Keith Mitchell or Kurt Kitayama. When Xander is a favorite, you can see the value in taking him against a field of 131 other players at short odds.
Schauffele can differentiate from the other players with his talent. Seamus Power is a solid player, but the skill gap between him and Patton Kizzire is minimal at best. As we shop for value in these fall events, you now have a better idea of why we just don't take the favorite in weaker fields.
2024 Black Desert Championship: Resort life
Southwest Utah plans to be pretty warm this week. The forecast calls for temperatures to reach the low 90s all four rounds. Considering the region, the humidity will be very low and surprisingly the wind too. The breeze spikes every afternoon around 5:00pm, but only to nine or 10 mph. No rain on the radar and the course looks ideal for scoring. Black Desert's Championship course is a par 71 design measuring 7,371 yards. That sounds long with seven par 4s stretching over 450 yards and three par 4s on the back nine reaching over 500+ that's what the paper will lead you to believe. Ivins, Utah sits at 3,000 feet above sea level. Playing at this elevation will increase carry by approximately three to four percent. BDR's 7,300 yards just became 7,100 yards.
A field of 132 rookie players on this course will have to contend with learning these lava fields very quickly. The purse is $7.5 million, and the winner will receive $1.35 million. The money is nice, but everyone in the field would rather solidify their spot for 2025 and two more years on TOUR with a win. Even as a new venue, the Black Desert selection makes "fall sense." I believe this will be another offseason birdie-fest. Better get to 20 under par if you plan to contend. With an average green size of 7,000 sq/ft, three reachable par 5s, and 51 acres of fairway(!) these players will play very aggressively.
The style and setting of this course remind me of the new venue we saw last year for the World Wide Technology Championship in Cabo. Ultra-wide fairways led to an absolute scoring barrage for four days. With no wind, elevation, and incredible course conditions, the only thing that can possibly slow these guys down will be the firmness of the turf. Even though Scottie and the rest are going to sit this one out, 21 of the top 100 in the OWGR are here and they (along with their peers) can go deep.
2024 Black Desert Championship: Red rocks and numbers
The blueprint for Black Desert is very straightforward. It starts with an aggressive approach off the tee. Players with extra length will be grossly rewarded in the Utah desert. The scorecard looks long, but if guys gain three/four percent of carry then all of the sudden, they can reach 600 yard par 5s and hit scoring irons into 500 yard par 4s. Most of our card will include powerful players. I want guys who like to hit driver deep and don't necessarily have the best accuracy. Fifty-one acres of fairway is twice the amount of short grass we usually see on TOUR. The closer you can get to the hole off the tee this week the better.
The approach game is going to be very similar to most weeks in the fall. Scoring irons (GW, PW, 9, 8) will lead the charge. Proximity to the hole is important as we know who creates the most birdie chances. Guys are going to score by beating up on the par 5s, the two short par 4s, and two wedge length par 3s. Since most of the field makes birdie on those holes, approaches on the long par 4s will be the opportunity to differentiate. Again, the longer the drive, the closer those iron shots in will be, but with five par 4s over 480 yards, I'm looking deep into who plays that length of hole the best.
Par 4 scoring tells a story and especially when you look precisely at who plays the long par 4s well. Chances are those are the same guys who play par 5s well too! Think about it, the eleventh hole this week is a par 4 measuring 532 yards. Last week in Mississippi, the eleventh hole was a 550-yard par 5. The same player will use a similar strategy on both holes. Drive it as far down the fairway as you can and hit the shortest club on approach possible. By comparing those scoring stats, it becomes quite clear who can (and will) take advantage of more than half the holes at Black Desert.
The best weapon when attacking a brand-new venue is the putter. That's the one club that translates to immediate success. Good putters roll the rock well everywhere and more importantly can read greens. We already know you will need a bunch of birdies, and you can't hit every approach to five feet. Much like the Bermudagrass specialists last week at the CC of Jackson, now we are looking for the Bentgrass boys. With 132 rookies in the field there is an edge on the greens. A deeper look into who putts well on desert courses with Bentgrass or Bent-Poa greens leaves us with another list to cross reference with the approach numbers.
Power, precision from the fairway, and putting are the foundation of this week's card. By looking at various leaderboards from similar resort venues, I also feel we have done the homework necessary to cash a successful card. In the end, model all you want, but if you cannot break down a course from a professional experience POV, then it will be tough to learn who has the best chance to succeed. I loved studying this venue. The course won't earn any architecture "favorites" posts, but Weiskopf is a wizard at creating excellent risk-reward holes, look at TPC Scottsdale. Yes, ;-) another one of his designs and an extra set of hidden clues that will get us closer to win No. 11!
2024 Black Desert Championship: Outright Winners
Michael Thorbjornsen (+3500)
One of the longest players on TOUR is rookie Thorbjornsen.
- Thorbjornsen finished T8 last week at the Sanderson Farms.
- Michael has gained with the putter in three straight events.
- A Stanford player, Michael has plenty of western desert style golf experience.
- Everyone will be a rookie this week in Utah, so I'm taking MT's talent.
Jacob Bridgeman (+6600)
We all have been watching Bridgeman very closely. He has three top 20s in his last four events.
- Bridgeman is a top 3 putter in the field. He has gained positively with the putter in six straight events.
- Even with average ball striking, Jacob is a scoring machine ranked top 20 in BoB% and birdies gained.
- Bridgeman is ranked fourth in par 4 scoring and elite when it comes to playing long (500+ yard) par 4s.
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