Weekly PGA Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill for another edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Before we get to that, let's talk again about the state of the PGA Tour. The PGA Tour has a problem right now, the better players aren't performing, and people are losing patience. That's the bad news, the good news is, this isn't a systematic issue. The fact that the product on the course has been less than desirable is entirely on those "top players" that have yet to perform. I saw a tweet from Shane Bacon the day other which compared this year's winner's vs. last year's winners to this point in the season and on the surface, it didn't look pretty, but upon closer inspection, basically the only difference was Jon Rahm, so yeah, losing Rahm was a big deal, I don't think anyone associated with the PGA Tour could have said otherwise with a straight face, but it's time for those other guys to step up and they will, it's just a matter of when apparently. With proven winners all over the place on the PGA Tour, you'd think that losing Rahm would have inspired them to play better knowing that one huge obstacle is out of their way, but that hasn't happened yet, but it will at some point. Every now and then we get some weird seasons, and this just happens to be one, happening at the worst possible time. Things will get back to normal soon though, hopefully this week.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Kurt Kitayama shot a final-round 72 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Rory McIlroy and Harris English.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (13-2)

Here we go again, it's that time of the year when Scheffler plays well but can't seem to win. The only difference this season is that he's not getting as close as he was this past season. Scheffler is too good to stay out of the winner's circle for much longer, but at these odds, against a strong field, this just isn't a good option. He has played well here though, so I'm not writing him off, just passing at this price.

Rory McIlroy (8-1)

It seems like McIlroy is getting closer, but I'm not sure he's close enough yet to make a play at this price. He played well for three rounds this past week, but a 72 on Saturday ruined his chances for a victory. His track record here is solid, with a win in 2018 and a runner-up this past year, but there just isn't enough value at his current number.

Viktor Hovland (16-1)

Hovland was expected to take the place of Rahm on the PGA Tour, but he's yet to show the game that brought so much success this past year. The talent is still there, and he's had droughts before, but the PGA Tour would really love to see Hovland get it all together and soon. Hovland has yet to miss a cut here and his results have been better over the past two years, so perhaps this is the spot where he takes off.

THE NEXT TIER

Ludvig Aberg (18-1)

Speaking of carrying the hopes and dreams of the PGA Tour, Aberg has slowed down a little since a hot start to this season, but that's largely to do with him being absent. Aberg has the talent to compete with the best on the PGA Tour on a weekly basis and this looks like a great opportunity to show that. Unlike most of the stops he's played at this season, Aberg has some experience on this course. He finished T24 this past year at this event.

Jordan Spieth (22-1)

Spieth certainly has a feel for this course, which makes it surprising that he's only played here twice in his career. Spieth has finished T4 in both of his starts here and his game has been good enough this season to make me think he can make another run here.

Will Zalatoris (35-1)

Zalatoris is one high-end player that is actually playing above expectations this season. With that said, expectations weren't all that high considering he'd missed most of the previous season, but still, he's playing well, let's not take that away from him. Zalatoris doesn't have a great track record here, but he's coming off a runner-up in his most recent start at the Genesis and he could be ready to finally start winning on the PGA Tour.

LONG SHOTS

Wyndham Clark (60-1)

What does Clark have to do to get some respect from the oddsmakers? He's won three times in the past 12 months, including a major and yet he's buried down here with the long shots. Sure, his track record here isn't great, but he's playing the best golf of his life over the past year, which means he's showing up to these events as the best version of himself that we've seen. In other words, don't put too much stock into his history anywhere this season, he's a different golfer now.

Erik van Rooyen (75-1)

I'll start by mentioning it is very out of character for me to back multiple golfers with poor track records at a given event, but hey, this has been a weird year, so maybe it's time to break some tendencies. As for van Rooyen, he's super streaky and he almost won this past week. Sure, it's an uphill climb against a field like this, but when he's one, he's really good, so maybe he continues the year of the long shot.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler - This is a signature event, which means the prize pool is right in-line with the majors, so there's no reason to avoid taking the best players. Scheffler has the best track record among the favorites this week, so he'll likely be a somewhat popular play. Personally, I might wait another week or two to get him at the top of his game, but as we've seen in the past, Scheffler can win any given week.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth - With so many longshots winning this season, there might be a tendency from OAD players to play it safe this week until we see some big names start to come through. If that's the case, then Spieth might be the play as he's not in the top-tier right now, but he's good enough to get on top of a field like this. His track record here is also enticing, although if I'm being a wet blanket, I would point out he's only played here twice.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Sungjae Im - He's buried on the odds chart, way down at 60-1 and he often gets forgotten when there are a lot of good high-profile options, but Im's track record here should not be ignored. He's played here five times and he's yet to miss the top-25. He's also posted two top-3s, so we know he can go really low here as well.

Buyer Beware: Xander Schauffele - I've always had a hard time predicting when Schauffele will play well, so take this for what it's worth, but I generally avoid golfers that choose not to play at certain places. Schauffele has only played this event two times, even though he's had plenty of chances to tee it up here. His results have been okay, but there's nothing to suggest that a high finish is coming this week.

This Week: Will Zalatoris - I mentioned earlier that it's unlike me to list so many players with poor track records at this event above, but this has been a weird year, so why not mix it up? Besides, if I take Zalatoris now and he ends up having a great week, I will have bought in before everyone else and would be in position to make a nice move.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jordan Spieth ($11,100)
Middle Range: Will Zalatoris ($10,500)
Lower Range: Erik van Rooyen ($8,600)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Cameron Young - Okay, we're getting serious now as the streak is nearing double-digits. This is another week where most of the players (50/69) make the cut, so there's no need to go really big, but with a streak this long, I certainly don't want to take any chances either. Young has two top-15s in two starts here and he's playing well right now, so he looks like the perfect play this week.

Previous Results