This article is part of our NHL Picks series.
It's already been a thrilling Frozen Four tournament that included a double-overtime thriller between Denver and Massachusetts, with the Pioneers coming out on top. Meanwhile, both Boston University and Boston College cruised to victories over RIT and Michigan Tech, respectively.
It will be a quick turnaround for all the clubs before second-round matchups Saturday and Sunday, especially for Denver which kicks off the round against Cornell at 4 pm ET.
Second Round Matchups March 30
Denver vs Cornell Total Under 6.5 (-135)
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After that thrilling double-OT clash with Massachusetts, I was tempted to take Cornell in this matchup at +150 solely based on the fact that the Denver Pioneers are going to have some tired legs. Having said that, Denver was the No. 3 seed in the tournament for a reason and should be capable of digging deep.
There isn't much value at -195 to back Denver and this feels like it could be another tight game considering Cornell also played it tight with a 3-1 victory over Maine. As such, I don't particularly like taking Denver on the Puckline given this could be a one-goal game.
Cornell's Ian Shane gave up just one goal on 31 shots while Denver's Matt Davis stopped 46 shots to hold the line against UMass. All that to say, look for this one to be a defensive battle, so I'll take the under on the 6.5 total even though you are giving up -135.
Minnesota Win Over Boston University (+140)
This is admittedly a tough matchup to handicap. BU are the favorites at -180 and while that's not a ton of juice to give up, I personally usually don't go beyond the -140 mark. You can get okay value on the Puckline at +130 with Boston University, though it seems unlikely the Terriers can roll over the Gophers the same way they did RIT (6-3).
If you are looking to back the total, over 6.5 seems like the play as the two clubs gave up a combined five goals in the previous round but you are still going to give up some value at -115. Instead, to get good value without the huge risk, in my opinion, is to go for the Gopher upset at +140.
Second Round Matchups March 31
Boston College -1.5 Win Over Quinnipiac (-115)
It took an overtime session for Quinnipiac to get past Wisconsin in the first round in a tight game that went under the 5.5 total. Star forwards Jacob Quillan and Collin Graf, both expected to sign with NHL clubs after the season, failed to register a point in the contests despite putting up a combined eight shots.
Boston College meanwhile rolled over Michigan Tech by a score of 6-1, though the score was somewhat inflated by the Eagles' five-minute power play during which they scored a pair of goals. Still, the game was never really in question after Cutter Gauthier scored 36 seconds into the period.
Look for BC to continue their march to the Frozen Four and a potential final against bitter rivals Boston University. Taking the Eagles on the Puckline returns decent value at -115, you could also consider targeting the over 6.5 in this one as well at that same -115.
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Michigan vs. Michigan State Total Over 7 (-115)
To be perfectly blunt, I am not touching a result in this game with a 10-foot pool. It's a rivalry game that throws all trends out the window -- though it should be noted that in the regular season, Michigan State won three of four matches in addition to securing a victory in the Big 10 tournament as well.
For the total, through those five matchups the Spartans and Wolverines combined for 40 goals, there is little to no chance this one is going to be a 1-0 defensive contest. The fact that the push is in play does help justify giving up -115 value here but if you can find an alternate line, I would certainly consider going to 7.5 and taking the over to increase your value.
Updated Frozen Four Futures
Nothing we saw in the first round really changed the fact that everything is pointing to a BU vs BC clash in the Frozen Four Final. The only difference is with their first-round opponents dispatched, you are getting less bang for your buck as Boston College has dropped to +215 (from +250) and Boston University is +400 (from +500). Given those odds, I'm still backing BU to get the higher return in a potential fifth matchup between these two sides this season -- with Boston College having won three of the four in the series.
Looking at the long shots, it's tough to pick either remaining team from the state of Michigan as the winner, which is kind of a toss-up, and will likely have to face BC. Let's assume for a minute that I am not insane for picking a Minnesota upset in the second round, then you have to consider doubling down on the Gophers at +800. Denver offers intrigue at +550 but they are going to be a tired team heading into their matchup with Cornell. I should also point out, that if the Gophers make it into the Frozen Four, they will be playing essentially a home game back in the Twin Cities.
Frozen Four First Round Picks
- Denver vs Cornell Total Under 6.5 (-135)
- Minnesota Win Over Boston University (+140)
- Boston College -1.5 Win Over Quinnipiac (-115)
- Michigan vs. Michigan State Total Over 7 (-115)
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