This article is part of our DFS NHL Breakdown series.
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 120.1 (TOR) to a worst of 90.1 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 93.2 (BOS) to a worst of 110.3 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Thursday brings a good sized nine-game slate with a marquee affair between Tampa Bay and Boston. Buffalo is the only team on the end of a back-to-back, while Detroit and the N.Y. Rangers are playing the front end of a back-to-back. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $50 Top Shelf (90 entries, Single Entry) | $40 Shootout (583 entries) |
| $33 Goal (500 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (147 entries) | $15 Scion of the Century (7,843 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (714 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,426 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (13,406 Entries) | $4 Postseason Paragon (7,431 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are
Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.
My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 120.1 (TOR) to a worst of 90.1 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 93.2 (BOS) to a worst of 110.3 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.
Slate Preview
Thursday brings a good sized nine-game slate with a marquee affair between Tampa Bay and Boston. Buffalo is the only team on the end of a back-to-back, while Detroit and the N.Y. Rangers are playing the front end of a back-to-back. Below is a chart of some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings:
| FANDUEL | DRAFTKINGS |
|---|---|
| $50 Top Shelf (90 entries, Single Entry) | $40 Shootout (583 entries) |
| $33 Goal (500 entries) | $20 Crosscheck (294 entries) |
| $12 Slapshot (147 entries) | $15 Scion of the Century (7,843 entries) |
| $7 Crossbar (504 entries) | $12 Knuckle Puck (784 entries, Single Entry) |
| $5 Save (714 entries, Single Entry) | $5 One-Timer (1,426 entries, Single Entry) |
| $4.44 Breakaway (13,406 Entries) | $4 Postseason Paragon (7,431 entries) |
The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.
| TEAM | OPP | STARTING GOALIE | OR | DR | SOG | S% | SV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | at BOS | (P) Andrei Vasilevskiy | 111.1 | 96.7 | 31.9 | 11.5 | 90.5 |
| Boston | vs TB | (C) Tuukka Rask | 103.0 | 93.2 | 33.4 | 10.2 | 91.5 |
| Minnesota | at MON | (C) Alex Stalock | 96.9 | 98.1 | 35.5 | 8.5 | 85.7 |
| Montreal | vs. MIN | (C) Carey Price | 107.8 | 100.4 | 33.8 | 9.2 | 87.3 |
| NY Rangers | at NJ | (C) Alexandar Georgiev | 95.5 | 106.6 | 27.0 | 11.0 | 88.9 |
| New Jersey | vs. NYR | (C) MacKenzie Blackwood | 96.1 | 102.4 | 34.7 | 8.9 | 88.1 |
| Vancouver | at STL | (P) Thatcher Demko | 99.2 | 101.3 | 30.1 | 10.1 | 91.5 |
| St. Louis | vs. VAN | (C) Jordan Binnington | 101.0 | 96.2 | 33.7 | 9.8 | 89.3 |
| NY Islanders | at WPG | (C) Semyon Varlamov | 90.9 | 97.6 | 30.6 | 8.4 | 89.5 |
| Winnipeg | vs. NYI | (C) Connor Hellebuyck | 97.7 | 104.4 | 30.2 | 11.1 | 89.8 |
| Detroit | at CGY | (C) Jimmy Howard | 90.1 | 104.4 | 29.1 | 9.8 | 89.7 |
| Calgary | vs. DET | (C) David Rittich | 111.2 | 94.0 | 35.4 | 11.1 | 89.4 |
| Nashville | at ARI | (P) Juuse Saros | 103.6 | 96.4 | 33.4 | 11.0 | 88.0 |
| Arizona | vs. NSH | (P) Darcy Kuemper | 97.9 | 98.3 | 32.4 | 8.4 | 93.1 |
| Ottawa | at VGK | (C) Anders Nilsson | 93.3 | 110.3 | 29.7 | 8.9 | 88.4 |
| Vegas | vs. OTT | (P) Marc-Andre Fleury | 111.9 | 98.3 | 35.4 | 9.8 | 90.4 |
| Buffalo | at LA | (P) Carter Hutton | 99.3 | 97.9 | 35.5 | 9.3 | 91.0 |
| Los Angeles | vs. BUF | (P) Jack Campbell | 96.3 | 106.1 | 31.5 | 8.3 | 87.1 |
All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.
Line Stacks
VGK2 vs. OTT: Mark Stone (1) ($7,700 FD, $7,700 DK), Max Pacioretty (1) ($6,900 FD, $7,200 DK), Paul Stastny (1) ($5,400 FD, $6,200 DK) - A home date with Ottawa (110.3 DR) is the best possible fantasy matchup in the NHL. Stone, Pacioretty and Stastny have combined for 10 goals and 14 assists through seven games, and we can expect more of the same Thursday.
NYR1 at NJ: Mika Zibanejad (1) ($7,600 FD, $7,800 DK), Artemi Panarin (1) ($7,800 FD, $6,300 DK), Pavel Buchnevich (1) ($5,300 FD, $4,900 DK) - For some reason the Rangers have only played three games while others have played eight; I'm hoping that layoff will keep people off this line because they are in a great spot against the Devils (102.4 DR). Zibanejad is off to a huge start with four goals and four assists, while Panarin has added a pair of goals and assists. You can cut Buchnevich from the stack, but he does draw first power play unit time.
NJ1 vs. NYR: Taylor Hall (1) ($7,400 FD, $6,800 DK), Kyle Palmieri (1) ($6,000 FD, $5,000 DK), Jack Hughes (1) ($4,400 FD, $4,100 DK) - I'm excited to see Hughes line up with Hall and Palmieri, the talented wing duo should help Hughes finally get on the scoresheet against the poor defense of the Rangers (106.6 DR).
CGY1 vs. DET: Sean Monahan (1) ($6,900 FD, $7,300 DK), Johnny Gaudreau (1) ($7,400 FD, $6,600 DK), Elias Lindholm (1) ($5,900 FD, $5,700 DK) - CGY1 put up next to nothing in a great matchup Tuesday against Philadelphia, but that should just cause them to go under owned Thursday at home against a Detroit team that has allowed 10 goals in their last two games (103.9 DR). It is only a matter of time until Gaudreau and Monahan break out of the small funk they are in.
STL2 vs. VAN: Ryan O'Reilly (2) ($6,500 FD, $5,900 DK), David Perron (2) ($5,700 FD, $5,000 DK), Sammy Blais (1) ($3,900 FD, $3,900 DK) - STL1 draws most of the attention in St. Louis and that has paid dividends for their second line with O'Reilly, Perron and Blais recording seven goals and 10 assists in their first six games. STL2 is a slightly better defensive unit, so they will likely draw more ice time to try to stop the strong top line in a positive offensive matchup against Vancouver (101.3 DR).
Other options: BOS1 vs TB, WPG1 vs NYI, VGK1 vs OTT, STL1 vs VAN, BUF1 at LA, CGY2 vs DET
Solo Forward Options
David Pastrnak (1) BOS1 vs TB ($8,500 FD, $7,500 DK) - BOS1 in in play at home against Tampa Bay and should be lower owned than normal, but if you just want a piece, Pastrnak is the clear choice as a solo play.
Anze Kopitar (1) LA1 vs BUF ($7,400 FD, $6,300 DK) - Buffalo is on the tail end a back-to-back, albeit with no travel involved, but they looked terrible in Anaheim on Wednesday, allowing five goals to a poor offensive Ducks squad. Kopitar has recorded a pair of goals with six assists and 21 shots in six games, I think he is a good bet to get on the scoresheet Thursday with multiple points.
Brendan Gallagher (1) MON1 vs MIN ($7,000 FD, $6,700 DK) - Gallagher has 24 shots in six games to go along with a pair of goals and four assists, but his games tend to come in boom-or-bust fashion as he's tallied all six of his points and 14 of his shots in just two games. The game Thursday at home against Minnesota looks eerily similar to the home date against St. Louis on Saturday when he recorded one of those big games.
Pavel Zacha (2) NJ3 vs NYR ($3,600 FD, $3,100 DK) - Travis Zajac is an option here as well, but Zacha garners second power play unit time and his linemates play better defense, so I expect them to earn some extra ice time trying to slow down NYR1 in this potential shootout.
Ryan Donato (1) MIN2 at MON ($3,400 FD, $3,100 DK) - Donato showed up in my spreadsheet as a good value play Tuesday and I didn't trust it, but he tallied an assist and five shots. With a spot on the top power play and a solid match up against Montreal, I'm considering him as a punt option at wing.
Defensemen
Jacob Trouba (1) NYR at NJ ($5,800 FD, $6,000 DK) - Trouba is my top defenseman of the day; with a goal, three assists, nine shots and eight blocks in his first three games, I do not see him slowing down against the lowly Devils defense.
Shea Theodore (1) VGK vs. OTT ($5,100 FD, $5,800 DK) - Five points in seven games, top even strength pairing, top power play spot, home game versus Ottawa -- this isn't rocket science folks, have some exposure to Theodore, at least on FanDuel.
Mark Giordano (1) CGY vs. DET ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK) - Calgary as a whole has started slowly this year, but Giordano is a guy you need in your lineup with those CGY1 stacks. He is still averaging nearly three shots per game and has a great matchup Thursday at home against Detroit.
Josh Morrissey (1) WPG vs. NYI ($4,700 FD, $4,600 DK) - Morrissey hasn't had many big games, but he has been about as solid as they come when looking for consistency with points in five of six games this year, plus at least two shots or blocks in every game.
Sean Walker (0) LA vs. BUF ($3,800 FD, $4,400 DK) - Walker has come out of the gates firing this season, with 18 shots on goal in his first six games leading to a pair of goals and assists. A top prospect in the Kings' organization, Walker had 17 points in 22 games in the AHL last year before getting some experience with the big club last season (three goals, seven assists in 39 games).
Nicolas Hague (2) VGK vs. OTT ($3,500 FD, $2,800 DK) - Hague is a top prospect getting his first taste of the NHL, he has a pair of assists in his last three games, and he put three shots on net in his last game. A home game against Ottawa plus some time on the second power play unit provides some big potential at a rock bottom price.
Goalies
Marc-Andre Fleury VGK vs OTT ($8,900 FD, $8,400 DK) - Fleury looked tired in his previous start but I think a couple nights off and a date with Ottawa (93.3 OR) will get him back on track.
Carey Price MON vs MIN ($8,000 FD, $8,300 DK) - Price has been mediocre this season (3.33 GAA, .896 SV%), but aside from a tough five-goal game at Toronto, he has not allowed more than three goals in any start. Minnesota has been struggling on their trip to Canada, scoring only three goals on 63 shots (4.8 S%) while the opposing goalie was in net. Price looks like a good FanDuel option for tournaments.
Jack Campbell LA vs BUF ($7,500 FD, $7,200 DK) - The Kings actually look like a decent team with Campbell in net with wins over Calgary and Nashville. With Buffalo playing the second night of a back-to-back, there is some potential for a big save performance while hopefully keeping BUF1 in check for a Kings victory. Campbell is in play on both sites Thursday, but looks like a great value on DraftKings.
Other options: Jordan Binnington STL vs VAN ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK), David Rittich CGY vs DET ($8,100 FD, $8,100 DK)
