DFS NHL Breakdown: Tuesday Line Stacks & Strategies

Please see this previous article for the basic strategy write-up.

My rankings use a Corsi-based rating system that I created, with the average rating 100 both offensively (OR) and defensively (DR). This rating is determined by factoring in Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, shooting percentage and save percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) ranges from a best of 119.5 (TOR) to a worst of 92.2 (DET), and the Defense Rating (DR) ranges from a best of 93.4 (BOS) to a worst of 112.1 (OTT). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. The ratings in the chart below represent adjusted match up ratings.

Slate Preview

Tuesday night brings us a big 11-game slate with a wide open schedule and many options to choose from. The night is highlighted by an Atlantic Division tilt as Boston travels to Montreal. Ottawa, Boston and Arizona will be playing their second game in as many nights, while St. Louis plays the front end of a back-to-back. Below are some of the highlighted tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many offensive and defensive ratings. Also shown are my projected shots on goal, shooting percentages and save percentages. Starting goalies are listed with either a projected or confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

All players below have a number inside parenthesis next to their names, which denotes the power play unit they are on (1) or (2). If they are not on a power play they will be noted with a (0), and the rare occasion of a (3) means that they are on both power play units.

Line Stacks

BOS1 is my highest projected scoring team of the night, but on the tail end of a back-to-back and traveling to Canada, I am looking at other options as my top plays of the night for value. Feel free to use BOS1, but there are not many stacks that offer big value to allow you to squeeze in their monster prices. That being said NYI2, SJ2, TOR3 or OTT1, Monday night's darlings, appear to be the best value bets.

WPG1 vs. NJ: Mark Scheifele (1) ($7,500 FD, $5,900 DK), Blake Wheeler (1) ($7,000 FD, $6,100 DK), Kyle Connor (1) ($6,600 FD, $6,300 DK) / WPG2 vs. NJ: Patrik Laine (2) ($7,700 FD, $6,200 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers (2) ($5,800 FD, $6,000 DK), Bryan Little (2) ($4,800 FD, $3,700 DK) - At the top of the list is WPG1 home against New Jersey (102.2 DR), who has allowed 18 goals over their past four games (4.5/gm). Scheifele, Wheeler and Connor have combined for four goals, seven assists and 38 shots over their past four games, and with that shot total they are bound to find the back of the net multiple times. WPG2 has been even better of late with six goals, seven assists and 42 shots over their past five games, so consider the Laine, Ehlers and Little trio at a reduced price and lower ownership.

TOR2 vs. LA: Auston Matthews (1) ($8,600 FD, $8,200 DK), William Nylander (2) ($5,400 FD, $6,000 DK), Andreas Johnsson (1) ($5,200 FD, $5,700 DK) - Los Angeles has allowed 23 goals over their past five games (4.8/gm), so Toronto will be happy to host the Kings after struggling to score goals following the injury to John Tavares (2.83/gm over past six). Tavares should be back in the lineup Tuesday, which improves the power play prowess, but hoping that Toronto eases him back into the flow, I'm leaning towards TOR2 as the better option. Matthews and Johnsson look to be the better combo with power play correlation and five goals, two assists and 27 shots combined over the past four games. Nylander has two assists and 11 shots over four games, so he has not be awful, but I would be more inclined to cut him and try to squeeze in Mitch Marner or a winger from a different team.

NYI1 vs OTT: Mathew Barzal (1) ($6,600 FD, $7,500 DK), Anders Lee (1) ($6,700 FD, $5,600 DK), Josh Bailey (1) ($5,600 FD, $5,500 DK) / NYI2 vs OTT: Brock Nelson (2) ($5,500 FD, $6,200 DK), Anthony Beauvillier (1) ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK), Derick Brassard (2) ($4,700 FD, $4,100 DK) - As mentioned above this is a strange night with very few values, but a home date against Ottawa (114.5 DR) on the second half of a back-to-back is the best spot you can get on paper. Barzal, Lee and Bailey have combined for seven goals, eight assists and 23 shots over the last five games, while Nelson, Beauvillier and Brassard have added five goals, six assists and 36 shots -- with Brassard potting a goal in each of his last five games.

SJ1 vs. CHI: Evander Kane (1) ($7,300 FD, $7,400 DK), Logan Couture (1) ($6,400 FD, $5,200 DK), Kevin Labanc (1) ($5,200 FD, $4,300 DK) / SJ2 vs. CHI: Tomas Hertl (1) ($6,300 FD, $6,400 DK), Timo Meier (2) ($5,000 FD, $4,700 DK), Barclay Goodrow (0) ($3,600 FD, $2,500 DK) -  I tweeted Saturday night that San Jose may be the worst team in hockey right now, but you have to have a short memory and play talented players in favorable spots, just like the Sharks have Tuesday at home against Chicago (106.9 DR). SJ1 is the clear better option with Kane and Labanc combining for four goals, three assists and 31 shots over the past five games. Couture has struggled mightily of late (one assist, 13 shots over past five) but is too good of a player to be held down for long; I'm expecting the line change to benefit him greatly after playing with Meier and Marleau in recent games. SJ2 is a pure punt option hoping to hit lightning with a new alignment as Hertl was most recently centering Kane and Labanc. 23-year old Meier is having a horrible year with only a pair of goals and assists coming off a 30-goal, 66-point season, while Goodrow (four goals, one assist this year) is a moving up from a bottom six role and likely will benefit from being surrounded by two talented players.

UPDATE: ANH1 vs. MIN: Ryan Getzlaf (2) ($6,600 FD, $6,900 DK), Ondrej Kase (2) ($3,200 FD, $4,200 DK), Nick Ritchie (2) ($3,700 FD, $3,600 DK) - Kase is back from injured reserve Tuesday which vaults ANH1 to my top value line of the day and a much needed salary relief option. Ritchie has been playing well lately, with a goal, two assists and 13 shots in his last five games; Getzlaf has been on fire with four goals, two assists and 14 shots over his past five games. 

TOR3 vs. LA: Ilya Mikheyev (2) ($4,400 FD, $5,000 DK), Kasperi Kapanen (2) ($4,800 FD, $4,500 DK), Alex Kerfoot (2) ($4,100 FD, $3,500 DK) - TOR3 offers some nice upside at a bargain price on both sites. I was not going to include them in the write up initially, but with Mikheyev moving down with Kerfoot to join up with Kapanen, this line has a lot more intrigue to me as the trio has put up four goals, six assists and 29 shots over their past five games.

Other Options: BOS1 at MON, TOR1 vs LA, DAL1/2 vs COL, WPG2 vs NJ, VGK1/2 at CBJ, CHI2 at SJ, ANH1/2 vs MIN, OTT1 at NYI

Solo Forward Options

Because of the lack of value line stacks, I'm gonna give you some extra solo value options.

C: Nico Hischier (2) NJ1 at WPG ($4,700 FD, $3,900 DK) - The price on DraftKings does not make much sense as Hischier has been playing great the last few games (a goal, two assists and 10 shots in last three) and is back on the top even strength line with Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri.

C: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2) OTT1 at NYI ($3,900 FD, $4,200 DK) - Pageau netted two goals Monday night at the Rangers but had been playing well before that, tallying three goals with 13 shots and 11 blocks in the past five game (his 11 blocks leads all forwards over the past 14 days). The match up at the Islanders is far from ideal, but if you are looking to squeeze in two solid lines, Pageau offers some cap flexibility.

W: Alex DeBrincat (1) CHI2 at SJ ($5,900 FD, $5,300 DK) - I mentioned I believe the Sharks have been among the worst teams in hockey lately, and that applies to the defensive side of the ice as well. DeBrincat has gotten off to a slow start but is showing some signs of life with a pair of goals and assists over his past four games to go along with 11 shots, with one of those goals coming after he moved onto a line with Patrick Kane and Dylan Strome a couple games ago.

W: Denis Gurianov (2) DAL1 vs COL ($3,900 FD, $3,500 DK) - Since being moved up to a top-six role, Gurianv has flourished with four goals, an assist and 16 shots in his last five games. It looks like he'll be promoted to the top even strength line Tuesday alongside Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov for a home game against an undermanned Colorado team, which should be a nice spot for some more production at a bargain price.

W: Carl Grundstrom (0) LA1 at TOR ($3,000 FD, $3,300 DK) - This is not a great match up on the road in Canada, but this should be an up-tempo spot for Grundstrom, who has played well (two assists, five shots in three games) on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter.

Defensemen

Brent Burns (2) SJ vs. CHI ($7,000 FD, $6,800 DK) / Erik Karlsson (1) SJ vs. CHI ($6,400 FD, $5,500 DK)- Even though he has struggled this year, the DraftKings price for Karlsson is absurd for a top line even strength and power play option in great match up at home against Chicago (106.9 DR). Even with the San Jose struggles, Burns has been solid of late with a goal, four assists, nine shots and eight blocks over his past five games -- in this great match up, there's a chance he puts up one of his classic monster lines.

Morgan Rielly (1) TOR vs. LA ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK) - Rielly is starting to heat up again with points in four straight games (one goal, three assists). His shot volume has tailed off in recent games, but a matchup with Los Angeles (106.0 DR) offers a good spot to rack up some shots with the poor defensive forwards for the Kings.

Josh Morrissey (1) WPG vs. NJ ($4,600 FD, $5,300 DK) - Morrissey is starting get more aggressive with the puck, putting 15 shots on net in his last four games (one goal, two assists). With a great match up at home against New Jersey (102.2 DR), Morrissey should be one of the best midrange options on the slate.

Nate Schmidt (1) VGK at CBJ ($4,400 FD, $4,900 DK) - A better value on FanDuel but certainly in play on DraftKings with a top line pairing at both even strength and on the power play. After getting hurt on his fifth shift of the season, Schmidt has returned from the injured list strong with a goal, an assist and seven shots in two games.

Johnny Boychuk (0) NYI vs OTT ($3,600 FD, $5,100 DK) / Devon Toews (1) NYI vs OTT ($4,400 FD, $4,200 DK) / Ryan Pulock (2) NYI vs OTT ($4,100 FD, $4,400 DK) - There's a huge bag of goodies on the Islanders' blueline Tuesday: Boychuk is a monster value on FanDuel, with four assists, eight shots and seven blocks in his past five games. On DraftKings, Toews (three assists, six shots, eight blocks last five games) would be my choice to play with NYI1 for extra power play correlation, while I would go with Pulock (two goals, one assist, seven shots, and seven blocks last five games) with NYI2 to get some extra power play time with Nelson and Brassard.

Goalies

John Gibson ANH vs MIN ($8,200 FD, $8,300 DK) - Back to the well with my guy Gibson (2.51 GAA, .926 SV%), who has not been as sharp as he was at the beginning of last season but is averaging over 30 saves per game, and had won five of six at home this season. A home date against Minnesota (97.1 OR and 33.1 projected shots) bodes well.

Thomas Greiss NYI vs OTT ($8,100 FD, $8,400 DK) - Although Ottawa scored six goals Monday night against the Rangers, they have struggled to score goals on the road (previously were averaging two goals/gm). Greiss will attempt to continue his hot play, coming off four straight victories while stopping 118 of 126 shots over that stretch (2.00 GAA, .937 SV%).

Frederik Andersen TOR vs LA ($8,300 FD, $8,500 DK) - Andersen has seven wins and two overtime losses in 11 starts this season, but his stats are not that great (3.00 GAA, .904 SV%). The Kings 97.1 OR) have lost five of seven on the road this year being outscored 34-18; I'm betting on a solid save percentage game and a likely win from Andersen.

FanDuel value: Martin Jones SJ vs CHI ($7,300 FD, $7,800 DK)
DraftKings value: Philipp Grubauer COL at DAL ($8,000 FD, $7,400 DK)