From the Press Box: Jockeying For Position

From the Press Box: Jockeying For Position

This article is part of our From the Press Box series.

In the Western Conference, all eight playoff teams have been decided, but the most intriguing races are for first place in each division. The Pacific Division has Anaheim and Los Angeles tied with 99 points, although the Ducks have a game in hand. The importance of the division win is twofold. First, that top team will avoid a tough first-round matchup against one of the other two California-based teams. Don't forget that San Jose, currently third with 96 points, has had a strong second half, so this opening bracket will be a tough round for sure. Second, that title winner is guaranteed to have home-ice advantage through the first two playoff rounds.

The pivotal game this week could be the head-to-head contest on Thursday when the Ducks make the short drive for a date in Los Angeles. Right now, the Kings hold the tiebreaker with more regulation wins (45-41) and effectively control their own destiny. A win over the Ducks in regulation time, followed by another home victory over Winnipeg on Saturday, gives them first place. Anything less than that – including an OT win on Thursday – opens the door for the Ducks, who have a tough back-to-back road trip to Colorado and Washington on the weekend.

The Ducks could take the driver's seat with a Thursday win and would make their lives simpler by winning in Colorado to clinch first place Saturday. Their preference should be to rest key players in that Sunday trip to Washington.

Over in

In the Western Conference, all eight playoff teams have been decided, but the most intriguing races are for first place in each division. The Pacific Division has Anaheim and Los Angeles tied with 99 points, although the Ducks have a game in hand. The importance of the division win is twofold. First, that top team will avoid a tough first-round matchup against one of the other two California-based teams. Don't forget that San Jose, currently third with 96 points, has had a strong second half, so this opening bracket will be a tough round for sure. Second, that title winner is guaranteed to have home-ice advantage through the first two playoff rounds.

The pivotal game this week could be the head-to-head contest on Thursday when the Ducks make the short drive for a date in Los Angeles. Right now, the Kings hold the tiebreaker with more regulation wins (45-41) and effectively control their own destiny. A win over the Ducks in regulation time, followed by another home victory over Winnipeg on Saturday, gives them first place. Anything less than that – including an OT win on Thursday – opens the door for the Ducks, who have a tough back-to-back road trip to Colorado and Washington on the weekend.

The Ducks could take the driver's seat with a Thursday win and would make their lives simpler by winning in Colorado to clinch first place Saturday. Their preference should be to rest key players in that Sunday trip to Washington.

Over in the Central Division, the top rung is up for grabs – Dallas and St. Louis are tied at 105 points, with the Stars currently holding the tiebreaker with a 46-43 edge in regulation wins. At this point, the schedule advantage is in the Stars' court, as they have home dates versus Colorado and Nashville, while the Blues visit Chicago on Thursday before hosting the league-leading Caps on Saturday. Braden Holtby and his mates could very well be trying to set the single-season record for goalie wins in that one, so Washington could be going all out.

The tough St. Louis schedule may even give the third-place Blackhawks a chance to sneak into second place in the Central and grab home-ice advantage against the Blues. For that to happen, Chicago needs to beat the Blues in regulation and then win in Columbus on Saturday while the Blues lose to the Caps.

There are two playoff spots in the East that are up for grabs, as Detroit or Boston will wind up holding third place in the Atlantic Division, while the other team will battle Philadelphia for a wild-card spot.

On Wednesday, the Wings took a huge step toward the postseason with a 3-0 win over the visiting Flyers. They hope to qualify for their 25th consecutive playoffs, the longest current streak for any NHL team. The current standings show Detroit at 93 points, while the Bruins and Flyers have 91 points apiece.

The Wings certainly can't complain about the fact that they control their own destiny in this final week, and we have to wonder how this push will affect their veterans (especially Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Niklas Kronwall) if Detroit qualifies for the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Flyers would seem to have the toughest row to hoe with four potentially stressful games in five days to close out this schedule (including Wednesday night's against Detroit). The Bruins are also in this mix, but they might rue the fact that they have stumbled down the stretch, going 2-7-1 in their last 10 games.

The importance of these games means that all the key players on these rosters can expect to play heavy minutes; target them in daily fantasy and lean on them in season-long leagues over the final games.

Looking to the lottery

Even though the league's bottom feeders wind up their poor campaigns this week, they have much at stake. The draft lottery has a new twist this season, as the top draft positions will be available to all non-playoff teams, with a declining lottery-win percentage based on the standings.

The team that finishes in 30th spot is guaranteed no worse than the fourth pick overall even if they don't win one of the three lotteries. The 29th-place club can do no worse than the fifth pick, and so on down (or up, as the case may be) the rest of the standings.

This race is important because of the quality of the top four draft picks projected to go in the first round of June's draft. The consensus No. 1 choice is Auston Matthews, who is expected to become a franchise center, just a notch below the caliber of Connor McDavid. A pair of big Finnish wingers, Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi, follows him. The fourth elite prospect in this group is Matthew Tkachuk, son of former NHL star Keith, who has had an excellent season for London in the OHL. So a 29th- or 30th-place finish is a big deal for two teams that are guaranteed to get one of these four potential future stars.

Wednesday night's game in which Columbus beat Toronto provided a little clarity in that regard, as we know for sure that the Leafs can finish no higher than 29th overall. They currently find themselves in last place after the Oilers won their farewell game at Rexall Place, moving two points ahead of the Leafs. While Edmonton has one final game in Vancouver on Saturday, the Oilers also hold the edge in regulation wins with 27, as the Leafs have only have 22. Even if Edmonton loses its last game, the only way Toronto can pass them is by earning three points in a pair of road games (in Philadelphia on Thursday and New Jersey on Saturday).

If you need production for your own fantasy teams, remember to lean on the top players in as many of these important games as you can.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Paul Bruno
Paul Bruno is co-host of the RotoWire fantasy hockey podcast, PUCKCAST with Statsman and AJ. He has been an accredited member of the Toronto sports media for more than 20 years. Paul also helps with RW's DFS podcast and is a contributing writer for RW NFL, MLB and CFL content. Follow him on twitter: @statsman22.
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