This article is part of our From the Press Box series.
The playoffs begin this week, and I'm not going to dwell on a detailed playoff preview (you'll find that elsewhere on our site). However, I will include a brief set of first-round predictions and my thoughts on how to prepare for playoff pools.
Panthers vs. Islanders
The Panthers have been the superior team all season and will look to impose their defensive structure over the Isles. Jaroslav Halak has already been ruled out for the series leaving, Thomas Greiss to shoulder the load in goal for New York. The Panthers win this one in five games.
Lightning vs. Wings
Tampa suffered a huge loss with Stamkos going down with blood-clot issues that will likely cause him to miss the playoffs altogether. Ironically, that has afforded holdout-prone Jonathan Drouin the chance to make his case as a top-six forward in Tampa. Meanwhile, the Wings enter the postseason with the knowledge that this is Pavel Datsyuk's swan song. The Lightning's speed and edge in goaltending causes me to call it for Tampa in six games.
Capitals vs. Flyers
Philadelphia played the Caps tough during regular season, but coach Barry Trotz will have his team focused on attention to the defensive detail that supports the most dynamic offense in the Eastern Conference. The Caps have too much of everything for the Flyers and should dispose of them in five games.
Pens vs. Rangers
The Pens rely on offense and the Rangers lean on defensive strength. I believe the axiom that good defense
The playoffs begin this week, and I'm not going to dwell on a detailed playoff preview (you'll find that elsewhere on our site). However, I will include a brief set of first-round predictions and my thoughts on how to prepare for playoff pools.
Panthers vs. Islanders
The Panthers have been the superior team all season and will look to impose their defensive structure over the Isles. Jaroslav Halak has already been ruled out for the series leaving, Thomas Greiss to shoulder the load in goal for New York. The Panthers win this one in five games.
Lightning vs. Wings
Tampa suffered a huge loss with Stamkos going down with blood-clot issues that will likely cause him to miss the playoffs altogether. Ironically, that has afforded holdout-prone Jonathan Drouin the chance to make his case as a top-six forward in Tampa. Meanwhile, the Wings enter the postseason with the knowledge that this is Pavel Datsyuk's swan song. The Lightning's speed and edge in goaltending causes me to call it for Tampa in six games.
Capitals vs. Flyers
Philadelphia played the Caps tough during regular season, but coach Barry Trotz will have his team focused on attention to the defensive detail that supports the most dynamic offense in the Eastern Conference. The Caps have too much of everything for the Flyers and should dispose of them in five games.
Pens vs. Rangers
The Pens rely on offense and the Rangers lean on defensive strength. I believe the axiom that good defense trumps good offense, and the Pens have injury question marks surrounding Evgeni Malkin (upper body) and Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion), not to mention recent playoff failures. These factors cause me to go with the Rangers in six.
Ducks vs. Predators
Anaheim was the best Western Conference club in the second half of this season, clicking on all cylinders, while the Predators weren't far behind. That said, the Ducks have more physicality, defensive depth and better goaltending, which leads me to call them to win this matchup in five games.
Kings vs. Sharks
The Kings play a postseason-ready style all year long, and their string of recent success is the edge that they hope to parlay into a series win against a Sharks club that still relies on veteran forwards who have come up short in the postseason. Add an edge in goal in favor of Los Angeles. These cross-state rivals will battle for seven games before the Kings escape with the win.
Stars vs. Wild
The Stars finished up with the best record in the Western Conference this season, earning the most favorable matchup against a Minnesota club that finished 22 points behind them in the Central Division. I think that's a pretty clear indicator that Dallas should win this round pretty easily in five games, especially with Tyler Seguin (Achilles) potentially set to return for Game 1.
Blues vs. Blackhawks
The Blues may have home-ice advantage, but the 'Hawks still have the pedigree of a successful playoff-hardened team that enters this postseason as the defending Cup champion. St. Louis will be under pressure to make up for a recent string of early postseason exits; unfortunately, Vladimir Tarasenko & Co. couldn't be facing a worse matchup while trying to get that monkey off their backs. I take the 'Hawks in six games.
Playoff Pool Strategy
Any NHL playoff pool preparation begins by mapping out predictions for the first two rounds of the postseason. That process leaves you with four teams that you expect to play at least three rounds, and it's those teams where you have to concentrate your interest, regardless of the pool format, whether it's a snake draft or a simple pick 'em.
The rationale behind this plan is simple: Pick as many top players as possible who can be expected to play deep into the postseason.
If successful, your chosen players are guaranteed to play a bare minimum of 12 games (assuming their clubs sweep the first two rounds and get swept in the third round). Conversely, if I were to pick the top players on 12 separate teams, at least four of them would be eliminated after the first round.
To underscore the impact of picking winners, I remind you that in last season's playoff scoring race, you have to go all the way down to 31st place to find the first player (Zach Parise with 10 points in 10 games) who didn't reach the Conference Finals.
By subscribing to this plan, you have access to (for all intents and purposes) 24 forwards, 16 defensemen and four goalies to choose from, so you'll want to check out RotoWire's NHL depth charts
If netminders are included in your playoff pools, you ought to lean on those clubs that you think will advance and have healthy and clearly defined No. 1 goalies. Most clubs rely on one goalie for the duration of the postseason, only opting for alternatives when injuries or dire team outlooks call for a change.
If you're in a snake draft, those top-six forwards, top-four defensemen and goalies will only take you midway through your drafts. It's at that point that you need to start incorporating those top players from other clubs that get eliminated early. That's why I make my draft prep spreadsheet with a points-per game multiplier that gives me a sense of how many points I should reasonably expect from any given player based on the minimum number of games I expect him to play in this postseason.
To clarify any misunderstanding of this tactic, please consider this example:
I expect Patrick Kane to play at least three rounds, for a minimum of 12 games.
His points-per-game multiplier is 1.292, based on 106 pts in 82 games.
My minimal expectation for him is 1.292 x 12 games = 15 points.
Meanwhile, my expectation for Joe Thornton is one round for a minimum of four games.
His points-per-game multiplier is 1.000, based on 82 points in 82 games.
My minimal expectation for Jumbo Joe is 1.000 x 4 games = 4 points
This is a clear indicator of the importance of picking the right players on the final four teams that will be in the Conference Finals. Both of these players are clearly regarded as top-six forwards and are featured prominently on their respective power-play units, but the key difference will be how many games they play. Of course, in this particular example, Kane would be even more valuable as a more prolific goal scorer if game-winning and/or special-teams goals are factors in your scoring setup.
If you follow these simple instructions, you stand an excellence chance to win your pools. A little preparation (and a little luck) will take you a long way.
Good luck to all, and enjoy these playoffs!
