Frozen Fantasy: Think Again

Last week, I wondered out loud if my strong, stable roster with a high floor (but potential lower ceiling) was good enough to win. 

I still don't know. But I've had a bit of time to think.

A high-floor team won't wow, but will accumulate a lot of points over time. A high-ceiling team will get plenty of points if it's built solely on stars. But almost every star has his slump. Besides, how many of us ever get a team truly built on stars?

In one league, I roll Auston Matthews (100 percent Yahoo!), Kirill Kaprizov (99 percent Yahoo!), Jason Robertson (99 percent Yahoo!) and Noah Dobson (97 percent Yahoo!) on a daily roster of six players. I also have Connor Bedard (93 percent Yahoo!). Elite. Like, really elite. 

Some days, I blow away my competition. Others? Let's just say I'm in the murky middle. Not great enough to improve tremendously. And not terrible enough to drop out of contention where I'd start trading pieces away.

Back to my high-floor squad. I just ran the metrics, and my gut is a little queasy. I'm 12-4, but every loss was to the teams in playoff contention. My power rating? I've never been better than fourth all season. And that was rare.

I'm mostly seventh every week. And sometimes eighth. There are only six teams in the playoffs. 

I don't know if this gives me my answer, but I do know that data rarely lies. 

I do know I need Jack Hughes (99 percent Yahoo!) back. After all, my two Gs are Stuart Skinner (91 percent Yahoo!) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (98 percent Yahoo!). I also have Brayden Point (98 percent Yahoo!), Mathew Barzal (87 percent Yahoo!), Bo Horvat (89 percent Yahoo!), Brad Marchand (99 percent Yahoo!) and Tim Stutzle (98 percent Yahoo!). 

You see why I'm torn. Now let's take a look at who I'm thinking about this week. 

Justus Annunen, G, Colorado (1 percent Yahoo!) – I've always been a fan of this flashy Finn. Annunen backstopped his U18 to World gold and has a Stanley Cup ring for backing the Avs for parts of the playoffs in 2020. He didn't dress in the Finals so his name isn't on Lord Stanley, though this year could be his shot. Annunen was called up this weekend and carries a 14-5-4 record, 2.65 GAA and .908 save percentage with him from the AHL. Alexandar Georgiev (99 percent Yahoo!) leads the NHL in wins and is coming off an impressive best goalie win at the All-Star Game. But his ratios are iffy and the Avs need strength between the pipes to fulfill their NHL-best odds for another title. Annunen might be the guy to give Georgiev the rest he needs. He'll deliver above-average results with that great team in front of him. 

Yegor Chinakhov, RW, Columbus (6 percent Yahoo!) – Chinakhov had his three-game, five-point streak (three goals) snapped Wednesday, but it looks like the kid's starting to warm up with seven points (four goals, three assists) in his last seven games and 14 goals across 39. And a gig on the top line. Sure, Chinakhov is shooting over his head (17.5 percent), yet he's also upped his shot volume. The Jackets are a bad team, but someone has to play in Ohio. And you and I both know that teams with nothing to play for often impress. Chinakhov is auditioning for next season. He might catch you some fantasy lightning. 

Jordan Eberle, RW, Seattle (36 percent Yahoo!) – Eberle has been slowly gaining momentum the last couple weeks with 10 points - including five goals - and 18 shots. The Kraken went 3-6-0 during that span, so I've forgiven myself for not paying attention. But I am now. Eberle only produced 18 points - with four of those goals - across his first 36 appearances and the edge of the performance cliff seemed real for the 33-year-old. But maybe I was wrong. Eberle's clutch sniping predated his NHL days – remember that epic New Year's battle at the World Juniors? He can also go hot-and-cold. But Eberle can be fantasy gold when confident, as he appears to be now. 

William Eklund, LW/C, San Jose (4 percent Yahoo!) – I carry a twinge of worry when I roster young Sharks. That team is awful. I trust Mike Grier – I think he's the right man to turn this team around. But there's a real chance player development can go off the rails with a thin squad. Enter Eklund, who I've swung back and forth on all year. Are they ruining him? Can he be the player they thought he'd be when they nabbed him seventh overall? I think we're about to find out.  Eklund is on a three-game, five-assist streak coming out of the break and six points in his last five. I'm not overly confident, but I don't think he's doomed. And I'm going along for the ride to see what Eklund can do. 

Andrei Kuzmenko, LW/RW, Calgary (48 percent Yahoo!) – Kuzmenko is a talent who needs the right coach to bring out his offensive excellence. Maybe that's Ryan Huska, because he sure wasn't a fit with Rick Tocchet in Vancouver. Huska is a player's coach and an incredible teacher. I'm not saying he can train Kuzmenko what his own zone looks like, though maybe he can convince him to vacation there for a bit before heading up ice. He posted 39 goals and 74 points last season, so he could provide a nice bump if he and Nazem Kadri (72 percent Yahoo!) can find a love connection. 

Ilya Mikheyev, LW/RW, and Pius Suter, C, Vancouver (3 and 4 percent Yahoo!, respectively) – I mentioned Suter last week, and he's even higher on my radar right now. Elias Lindholm's (74 percent Yahoo!) arrival on Canada's left coast means Mikheyev and Suter are the third wheels on each of the Orca's top lines. It doesn't really matter which one gets which line – their mates will be incredible. And both will log power-play time. I rolled the dice on Suter given his recent hot streak – he has six points, including four goals (three games), and a spot on PP1. But Mikheyev also has the opportunity to shine with Andrei Kuzmenko (48 percent Yahoo!) gone. I think his current cold streak is about to come to an end.  

Sean Monahan, C, Winnipeg (25 percent Yahoo!) – Monahan is a great fit in the Peg. He's smart, responsible, and can score. I think we all lost sight of his offensive ability when he struggled through injuries in Calgary. But in 74 games with Montreal, Monahan racked up 52 points - including 19 goals, 20 PPP and 576 faceoff wins (55 percent). He and Mark Scheifele (88 percent Yahoo!) are going to create heavy havoc as one of the league's best one-two, two-way punches down the middle. My only hesitation? Monahan will slide onto PP2, so his category coverage will drop a bit. But his faceoff ability more than offsets it, depending on your categories. 

Damon Severson, D, Columbus (3 percent Yahoo!) – Full disclosure – I've held onto Severson for years in one of my dynasty leagues. I think it all started with the Shea Weber-lite comparisons, and that's all it took. Severson has notched four points (three assists) in his last four games. He also picked up six shots, four hits, four PIM and two blocks over that stretch with some time on the PP. Columbus is ripe for a big shakeup, though he and Zach Werenski (62 percent Yahoo!) are their bedrock on the back end. Modest production will come, but deep leaguers only. Don't overrate. 

Troy Terry, RW, Anaheim (46 percent Yahoo!) – On the surface, Terry's 37 points in 47 games seem "normal" for him, especially after two straight 60-plus point campaigns. But four assists in 14 outings starting in early November made a lot of managers jump ship. Terry has woken up with 15 points - with six of those goals - from his last 12. And 24 in 23. At 26, Terry needs to prove that he can be a valuable part of the youth movement in Anaheim, so count on him to perform. Who wouldn't want to prove he can hang with Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras and Leo Carlsson (41, 33 and 7 percent, respectively) for the next five years or so? 

Marc-Edouard Vlasic, D, San Jose (0 percent Yahoo!) – Pickles has found his game the last 10 contests with five goals on 25 shots and 26 blocks. He's even a plus-1. It won't last. But then again, the Sharks need someone to play, and he will. You can do worse.

Back to thinking. 

Strategy is best when the goal is clear and concise and there's commitment. But not blind commitment – you need the flexibility to change approaches if things are too far out of reach. 

And sometimes you have to be more aggressive if the context changes. Like the league I told you about. Now I need to decide if being at the top is enough to alter the original strategy of competing, but selling at the deadline to focus on next year. 

I still have time to figure out what chips I'm pushing in. 

Before I sign off, I want to gives huge props to Shawn Hutchinson, who files Hutch's Hockey every week. He's earned a prestigious Fantasy Sports Writer's Association (FSWA) nomination for Hockey Writer of the Year. Read his stuff. It's good. Well done, my friend. 

Until next week.