Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Pageau finished the 2021-22 campaign hot, with three goals in his final four appearances, but he managed just 18 goals on the year. His 21 helpers were his most since the 2016-17 season, while Pageau's 171 hits were a new career high. The Islanders play a defense-first style. They focus on checking and trying to win low-scoring games, which makes it difficult for fringe fantasy options such as Pageau to offer consistent value on a year-by-year basis. When push comes to shove, chances are you can find a better option during your draft. There just isn't all that much upside here.

Pageau's offensive production dropped off in his first full season with the Islanders. The 28-year-old scored 14 goals and 28 points in 54 games after registering a career-high 26 goals and 40 points in 67 contests the previous season with New York and Ottawa. But Pageau's 2020-21 production likely represents his floor, and the veteran center provides meaningful contributions elsewhere, having scored five power-play goals and a pair of short-handed tallies last season while winning a career-high 56.7 percent of his faceoffs. As a jack-of-all-trades type available late in drafts, Pageau is a handy player with plenty of utility for fantasy managers.

Pageau rode an elite shooting percentage - 17.2 percent, 14th in the league among players who scored at least 20 goals - en route to a career season last year and translated it into a $30-million extension from the Isles. That sort of performance screams regression, especially when you've just cracked 20 goals for the first time in six full seasons and have no history of elite offensive play. Pageau doesn't shoot very often, plays on the power play rather sparingly and also plays on a team that has ranked 22nd in goals per game in each of the past two campaigns. He has some fantasy value in rotisserie leagues that count hits, but fantasy managers looking for offensive upside should steer away.

Pageau suffered a devastating Achilles injury during the opening days of training camp last fall and was limited to just 39 games as a result. While the center fared well in his return to the ice -- four goals, eight helpers and 83 shots -- it likely won't put him atop most fantasy draft boards. Still, the Ottawa native is capable of reaching the 35-point mark and could be a sneaky depth option for fantasy owners heading into the 2019-20 season. Considering the 26-year-old is entering the final year of his contract, he could also be a trade candidate at the deadline, which would likely see his fantasy value rise.

Pageau failed to reach 15 goals in either of the past two seasons which didn't bode well for his outlook this upcoming season, but after tearing his Achilles tendon during training camp testing, the center will be lucky to play in 10 contests this year. At 25 years old, it was time for Pageau to prove he was worthy of being a part of Ottawa's long-term future -- how missing the 2018-19 campaign factors into the club's plans likely won't be known until the 2019 offseason.

Pageau took a step back in his second full season with the Senators in 2016-17, tallying 33 points (12 goals, 21 assists) in 82 games after notching 43 points in 2015-16. That decline in production can largely be attributed to the 5-foot-10 pivot’s failure to score a single shorthanded goal last season after potting seven shorties in 2015-16, but therein lies the problem with Pageau as a fantasy asset. The 24-year-old forward is buried on Ottawa’s depth chart behind Kyle Turris and Derick Brassard, and he isn't expected to occupy a spot on either of his team’s power-play units next season, so he’s forced to earn all of his offensive production while at even strength or shorthanded. Pageau is a dependable depth option who could easily produce 35 or so points as well as a strong hit total, but his limited role caps his fantasy upside.

To put it in simple terms, Pageau exploded in the 2015-16 season. Improvement across the board is one thing, but the unheralded pivot set career highs in every category, including establishing himself as a major threat when his team was a man down (seven shorthanded goals). The 2011 fourth-round pick appeared in all 82 contests, registering 19 tallies, 24 assists, a plus-17 rating (best on the roster) and 133 shots on goal. Ordinarily, that would make him a big-time fantasy sleeper entering this year, but Pageau’s stuck on the third line thanks to the arrival of veteran Derick Brassard and the expected healthy return of Kyle Turris (ankle). However, be ready to snatch the 23-year-old off the waiver wire if he finds his way into the top six.

Pageau was a key member of the Senators' second-half surge into the postseason, as he finished his 2014-15 campaign with 10 goals and nine assists in 50 games. A leg injury in the first round of the playoffs resulted in him finishing the season off the ice, but he’s expected to be back at full health for the team's training camp this fall. With a new two-year contract in tow, Pageau is set to see full-time action in Ottawa for the first time in his career, likely serving as the Senators' third-line center. It wouldn't be a surprise if he quietly challenged for a 35-to-40-point season.

Pageau was expected to make a big jump last season after an impressive playoff performance in 2013, but largely disappointed. The center suited up for 28 games in 2013-14, but was only able to muster two goals and 12 PIM over that span. He's still just 21-years-old, but with the Senators in a rebuilding mindset after trading Jason Spezza, 2014-15 could be Pageau's last opportunity to prove his worth to the franchise. He has great speed, and showed the ability to score with six points in 10 games in the playoffs two years ago, so he might be a decent super-sleeper pick in deeper leagues.

Pageau came up for the playoffs at the ripe old age of 20 and proceeded to post impressive numbers with four goals and two assists in 10 playoff games. He'll get a shot to be an every day player in Ottawa to start the year and his great speed could very well keep him in the big league. He's a high risk pick, but there's definitely potential to be found here.