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Schmidt has solid years and subpar years, and 2022-23 fell in the latter category. While he scored seven goals, he added just 12 assists, 85 blocked shots and 101 shots on goal while posting a plus-15 rating. The blueliner has reached 30 points four times in his career, but he's never landed between 20 and 29 points in a campaign, making him a bit of a risky option for fantasy managers considering he's entering his age-32 season. At this stage of his career, he's also seeing less ice time -- he was under 20 minutes per game in 2022-23 for the first time in six years. If that continues, there's no reason to expect a significant bounce-back campaign this year.
Schmidt posted 30-plus points (32) for the fourth time in the past five years in 2021-22. His 1:40 worth of power-play time per game was his highest mark since the 2018-19 campaign with Vegas. However, the presence of both Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk stealing some of the now 31-year-old Schmidt's minutes with the man advantage is a real concern, especially since the Minnesota native doesn't contribute in any other areas. There's a non-zero chance Schmidt could be able to carve out late-round fantasy value this coming season, but you can probably do better on draft day.
Schmidt's only season in Vancouver was a colossal disappointment, as he posted the lowest point total (15) and plus-minus rating (minus-7) of his career since establishing himself as a full-time NHLer back in 2015-16. Schmidt failed to tally a single power-play point in 2020-21 despite averaging 1:04 of ice time per game with the man advantage. The Canucks dumped Schmidt (and his $5.95 million contract through 2024-25) on Winnipeg in July in exchange for a third-round pick. Schmidt should see his production rise to normal expected levels (30-plus points) on a thin Jets blue line, making him a solid late-round pick in most fantasy formats.
Schmidt posted his third straight 30-point season with seven goals and 24 assists in 59 games for the Golden Knights last season. With Vegas in a cap crunch after signing Alex Pietrangelo, Schmidt was dealt to the Canucks, where he'll immediately assume a top-four role. The 29-year-old Schmidt has finished as a minus player just once in his career, back in 2013-14, and his ability to play both sides on defense will make him a versatile option for head coach Travis Green. Look for Schmidt to potentially see a little less than the 21:41 of ice time per game he received in Vegas last year, but it shouldn't decrease his scoring production. He'll also add roughly 100 blocked shots, which boosts his fantasy value just a little more.
Schmidt spent most of the 2018-19 campaign playing catchup after serving a 20-game ban for violating the NHL's performance-enhancing drug policy. The American defenseman denied any wrongdoing, but the suspension was upheld, and he ended up appearing in just 61 regular-season games as a result. Obviously reeling from the forced hiatus, Schmdit managed to produce a career-high nine goals to complement 21 assists and a tidy plus-21 rating. With a calculated two-way game and the endurance to handle big minutes -- both at even strength and on special teams -- Schmidt checks out as a bonafide top-pairing spark plug for the Golden Knights. Consider targeting him once the elite blueliners are off the draft board.
After four seasons with the Capitals, Schmidt was left exposed by Washington in the expansion draft. Schmidt signed a two-year, $4.45 million contract with Vegas and put up a career high in points (36), while also leading the team in average ice time (22:14). Schmidt is a valuable defenseman, but be careful not to overrate his fantasy value. The 27-year-old wasn't known for his offense prior to 2017-18 and likely won't be able to duplicate another season in the 40-point range, especially with consideration to his 20-game suspension for violating the NHL's Performance Enhancing Substances policy. Schmidt should still block plenty of shots and see time on the second power-play unit once he returns, but tempering your expectations would be beneficial to ensure he's taken at the right spot in fantasy drafts.
Schmidt got one of the rawest deals of anyone out of the NHL expansion draft, as he went from one of the league's top teams in the Capitals to the newfangled Golden Knights, for whom he’s expected to be a major minutes eater in their inaugural season. With Vegas trying (perhaps halfheartedly) to bring a bunch of disparate parts together into a cohesive whole, Schmidt will surely see his rating plummet from last season's plus-22, quite conceivably into the negative range, and you can't count on him for a point total north of the teens. That doesn't leave him with much fantasy value.
Signed as an undrafted free agent out of the University of Minnesota in 2012, Schmidt has steadily established himself as a legitimate NHL prospect. Like 2012-2013, Schmidt is likely to spend the balance of the upcoming season in the AHL, but he has shown flashes of potential and will likely get another taste of NHL action as an injury call-up. The former NCAA standout has all the tools to be a serviceable top-6 defenseman in the NHL at some point in the future.
