While last week's card wasn't anything to remember fondly, the UFC returns with its August Pay-Per-View, featuring 12 bouts we can analyze to try and determine the best way to profit. We'll look at each bout across three platforms, including a post-hype prospect who just might derail a current darling and a former champion looking to regain his throne. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Valter Walker ($8,000)
A loss to Lukasz Brzeski in your UFC debut may not be the best look, but looks can be deceiving. The Brazilian had a dominant first round in the grappling department before gassing out. While that still isn't what we'd like to see from a prospect, Junior Tafa has shown almost zero ability to get off his back once taken down. If nothing else, Walker is tough, and as long as he can withstand a big right hand, he should be able to get this fight where he wants it with little resistance.
Casey O'Neill ($7,600)
Luana Santos has been perfect in three trips to the Octagon, but it's notable that she got tired against another strong grappler in Stephanie Egger, resulting in the 24-year-old surviving a third round that saw her hit with big shots and taken to the ground. "King" can push a ferocious pace over three rounds and is solid enough in her boxing to take advantage of Santos' wide hook shots.
Ricardo Ramos ($7,700)
Ramos' ability to look flat in any given fight has me passing on the Brazilian in most matchups. Still, I can't help myself against Josh Culibao, who isn't dangerous anywhere and has been taken down seven times in his last two fights. Ramos has all the talent in the world, and he finds himself against an opponent who won't make him pay for his typical lapses in concentration.
Stewart Nicoll ($9,000)
Nicoll will be a fun addition at flyweight, as he looks to push pace immediately and bring the fight to the ground. Jesus Aguilar is tough to hold down, but that may work to our advantage, as it should lead to plenty of repeat takedowns. Unlike Mateus Mendonca, Nicoll has the endurance to keep up with Aguilar, which will stem any kind of late-fight comeback he would need to stage.
Mateusz Gamrot ($9.300)
Dan Hooker's 80 percent takedown defense rate this late in his UFC career is impressive, but outside of Gilbert Burns in 2018, "The Hangman" hasn't faced a high-level, committed grappler over that stretch. Gamrot will take the center of the cage as soon as the bell rings, which will almost certainly be bad news for a fighter who has historically had trouble keeping his back off the fence. It may take a few tries, but Gamrot should have this fight in his full control before long.
Jack Jenkins ($9,600)
Jenkins' UFC performances don't quite lend themselves to this price, but Herbert Burns' fights have been such a blur that it's almost impossible to not score well in victory. Jenkins is a wrestler by trade but is a tight enough boxer that he should be able to take advantage of "The Blaze" and his wild offense. Mix in a takedown or two for good measure, and we should be comfortable about clearing 100 points.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Song Kenan UNDER 43.5 Significant Strikes, Jair Rozenstruik UNDER 20.5 Significant Strikes, and Kai Kara-France OVER 60.5 Significant Strikes
Given the fight styles of both Kenan and Rick Glenn, it's difficult to imagine that this fight lasts long enough to reach our total. This is particularly true since Glenn's issues with head movement have come back to bite him of late, with two consecutive first-round KO/TKO losses. Kenan is fast and powerful but likes to brawl too much for his own good. All of this should ensure that someone sleeps early in this one.
While the heavyweights' activity level won't be quite as high, Tai Tuivasa will come forward, making it impossible for a measured striker like Rozenstruik to find his bearings. I expect "Bam Bam" to try and establish himself early once again, leading to exchanges in the center of the cage between two extremely powerful men.
Kara-France and Steve Erceg are separated by only one significant strike on Prize Picks, so I'm opting for the much quicker and more active fighter who also absorbs less punishment. Erceg is an incredibly clean boxer, but he doesn't use his grappling enough, which will leave "Don't Blink" free reign to move around the outside and land hard leg kicks. These men have been incredibly durable in their careers, which should ensure that we exceed our total.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Tom Nolan UNDER 4.0 Minutes of Fight Time, and Carlos Prates Under 10.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Alex Reyes has fought twice in the UFC since 2017. In both instances, he displayed good agility and quickness, but very little in the way of defense or crisp striking. While Nolan is the much more refined fighter here, he also has his moments where he will let his defense lapse swinging for the fences. In short, Neither man has been out of the first round in their respective UFC careers, and I don't see any reason that would change here.
Prates works so slowly that it's always a bit dicey to play the unders when he is involved, but his explosivity makes it impossible to do otherwise in most instances. That's certainly the case here, as Li Jingliang has never been shy about sauntering into the pocket to close distance on a taller opponent. "The Leech" can grapple when pressed, but it seems much more likely that this one ends when an opponent lands a kill shot.
Bets to Consider
Israel Adesanya Wins via KO/TKO (+300)
It may seem difficult to go back to Adesanya after he seemingly couldn't get out of first gear against Sean Strickland, but I view this dynamic as similar to the first fight "The Last Style Bender" had with Robert Whittaker. In that bout, the typically composed Whittaker came out swinging wildly, trying to catch Adesanya from the opening minute. This led to the former middleweight champion getting a brutal knockout in a fight where he was barely touched. While it's too much to hope for that outcome here, Dricus Du Plessis has made his calling card wild and crazy, and I have to think Adesanya is still slick enough to dodge the raindrops.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC 305 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
