UFC Vegas 101 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC's first card of the new year may be light on star power, but we still have 14 intriguing fights from which we can potentially profit. We'll look at every bout across three platforms, including an aggressive underdog at flyweight and a middleweight who isn't far removed from being mentioned as a title contender. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Nurullo Aliev ($9,500)
While the number here may look prohibitive, Joe Solecki has been dominated by grapplers in the past, seemingly willing to play guard rather than get off his back. "Tajik Eagle" is active from top position, and the strikes he will land combined with the control time makes him a cash option with upside in GPP tournaments.
Felipe Bunes ($7,600)
Bunes is an incredibly active fighter, having shot for six takedowns in his loss to Joshua Van last year. Opponents have brought Jose Johnson to the mat at will, which we can see from his abysmal 38 percent takedown defense rate. The Brazilian will be on the wrong end of a three-inch height discrepancy, so look for him to close the distance early to work his grappling game.
Trey Ogden ($7,900)
Ogden has always been a submission grappler, but "Shamurai" has leaned heavily on his offensive wrestling recently, having notched 10 takedowns in his last three fights. While he is a slick BJJ fighter, Thiago Moises has been outwrestled numerous times, most recently in a one-sided loss to Benoit Saint-Denis in 2023. While I don't expect him to submit Moises, Ogden should be able to keep himself safe as he banks rounds to win a decision.
Austin Bashi ($8,900)
Bashi looks like a godsend at this price, as the debutante is a wrestler who will push the pace and try to ground his opponent from the opening bell. Christian Rodriguez is no stranger to talented grapplers, as he defeated prospect Raul Rosas in 2023, but Bashi appears much more physically strong than Rosas was at the time, as he is a 23-year-old who is 13 fights deep in his MMA career.
Carlston Harris ($8,200)
Harris often fights at a pace that he has trouble keeping, but this pressuring style should wear on former title contender Santiago Ponzinibbio, who has more miles on him than even his advanced age of 38 might suggest. The veteran still hits hard, which will likely force Harris to turn to his grappling and take the danger out of the matchup.
Jacobe Smith ($9,400)
Smith is another fighter on this slate who weaponizes pressure and pace to push his opponent up against the fence and look for takedowns. Preston Parsons is a wrestler in his own right, but Smith's speed and strength should be more than enough for him to take over this fight and potentially find a finish.
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov ($8,800)
Gadzhiyasulov can make a splash at light heavyweight as a skilled grappler who is athletic enough to stand at range and strike. Bruno Lopes is also light on his feet but can be quickly closed down and controlled against the fence, allowing "MG" to bring the fight to an area where he has a sizable advantage.
Agree with these plays and want to test different lineup combinations? Construct a lineup and give it a shot on DraftKings using RotoWire's UFC DFS Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Fatima Kline OVER 54.5 Significant Strikes, Nicolle Caliari UNDER 63.5 Significant Strikes, and Amanda Ribas UNDER 99.5 Significant Strikes
Kline can do a bit of everything in the cage, but Viktoriia Dudakova's best chance to win this fight is on the ground, as evidenced by the four submissions she has tallied among her eight wins. This likely means that the Russian fighter will look to grab the clinch whenever possible, but this total is modest enough that Kline should be able to make the number over three rounds.
Interestingly, we can choose between both sides of many matchups on this slate. In this case, Caliari is an underdog against Ernesta Kareckaite, who will aggressively work her way into boxing range and throw combinations. This will leave Caliari with little opportunity for offense, as she will be trying to stem an onslaught while up against the fence.
Dern's struggles against experienced strikers make it unlikely that she will attempt to stand for long periods with Ribas, particularly when one considers how lopsided the striking was in their first meeting. I expect that the BJJ prodigy will look for her wrestling so relentlessly that it will curtail the Brazilian's offense, resulting in a relatively low total.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Marco Tulio UNDER eight minutes of fight time, Punahele Soriano OVER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Cesar Almeida OVER 10 Minutes of Fight Time
Ihor Potieria fights with such a disregard for defense that it's difficult to predict any bout of his to go much further than round one. This is doubly true when he is facing someone like Tulio, who has secured nine finishes (eight KO/TKOs) in 12 professional wins. I expect "The Duelist" to stand in the pocket again, resulting in a quick night for each competitor.
Perhaps weary of brawls decided by the flip of a coin, Soriano drastically changed his style in his win over Miguel Baeza, notching five takedowns and almost 12 minutes of control time. I expect a similar approach against another heavy-handed opponent in Uros Medic, which should work to extend the fight into the later rounds.
A similar dynamic arises in our last selection, as Roman Kopylov showed us just how easy it was to take down Almeida when the two met in June. Given this, it seems a man with the nickname "Judo Thunder" would put those skills to work rather than risk being knocked out. Look for Abdul Razak Alhassan to bring this fight to the ground and work from top position.
What does the data say about these selections? Compare each fighter's higher/lower marks to other DFS Pick'em sites, sportsbooks and past fights using the RotoWIre Picks and Props tool for MMA.
Bets to Consider
Chris Curtis (+210)
It was surprising to see Curtis as such a big underdog against the aforementioned Kopylov, who won't take advantage of "The Action Man's" slow start and stands upright in the pocket. This will allow Curtis to land body blows to perfection as he stalks forward and takes away the space needed by the Russian fighter to land kicks. Kopylov can be hard to deal with in the right context, but Curtis should be able to neutralize his offense and slowly gain the upper hand as the fight draws on.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Vegas 101 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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