This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 90 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 90 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Nora Cornolle (7-1-0) v. Melissa Mullins (6-0-0)
Nora Cornolle - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Melissa Dixon - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: I am not interested in this low-level fight. Both fighters are green and have only one UFC fight to their name. I would give Cornolle an edge in power, but Mullins should have the rest. I will side with the favorite for a low-scoring win.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Mullins
Dylan Budka (7-2-0) v. Cesar Almeida (4-0-0)
Dylan Budka - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
Cesar Almeida - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 4 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a matchup between a pair of debuting fighters fresh off Contender Series wins. Budka is a primary grappler, while Almeida is a primary striker. This will likely come down to Almeida's takedown defense. I expect Almeida to apply enough forward pressure to keep Budka on the back foot, eventually catching him for a knockout.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Almeida
Dan Argueta (9-1-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (14-0-0)
Dan Argueta - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Jean Matsumoto - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Argueta has not had much luck in the UFC after back-to-back no-contests, and he now receives a debuting Matsumoto, a highly-touted and impressive prospect. Argueta has an impressive ground game, but that is about it. Matsumoto is well-rounded and should have no issue winning his debut.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Matsumoto
Piera Rodriguez (9-1-0) v. Cynthia Calvillo (9-6-1)
Piera Rodriguez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Cynthia Calvillo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez looked impressive against low-level competition and then struggled against an experienced UFC veteran. Calvillo is an experienced UFC vet but has lost five fights in a row. However, a few of those fights could be debated. Calvillo is the dog, but I expect her to be the better fighter. It's hard to trust judges, especially in her fights, but I will ride with the dog.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Calvillo
Norma Dumont (10-2-0) v. Germaine de Randamie (10-4-0)
Norma Dumont - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 10 wins
Germaine de Randamie - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: De Randamie returns to the ring after over three years, and very little should be expected of her. Dumont should be better everywhere and dictate how this fight goes. However, she generally does not score well for DFS, making this a GPP-type fight.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Dumont
Court McGee (21-12-0) v. Alex Morono (23-9-0)
Court McGee - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 21 wins
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: McGee is 39 and has been knocked out badly in consecutive fights. This could be his last fight. I expect Morono to have a heyday striking and to eventually knock the old vet out for the third time in a row. Morono makes a solid play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Morono
Trevor Peek (9-1-0) v. Charlie Campbell (8-2-0)
Trevor Peek - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Charlie Campbell - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This has Fight of the Night and bonuses written all over it. Both guys love to brawl and are not shy about stepping into the pocket. This fight will be purely GPP for DFS and should be a must-play. Campbell has the cleaner striking, which could cause issues for Peek if he counters often. However, Peek has incredible forward pressure and could make things difficult for Campbell to land clean. This is a close fight, but I will side with the dog.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Peek
Lukasz Brzeski (8-4-1) v. Valter Walker (11-0-0)
Valter Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
Lukasz Brzeski - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Walker is making his UFC debut at 36 as an undefeated fighter. Brzeski has lost all three of his UFC fights, though he should have won the decision in his first fight. Walker is dangerous on the feet and has relatively good cardio; if he avoids any takedowns, he should win. Brzeski will have a considerable edge on the mat if he can get it there. I do not see a high score for DFS without a finish.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Walker
Ignacio Bahamondes (14-5-0) v. Christos Giagos (20-11-0)
Ignacio Bahamondes - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Christos Giagos - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight will likely be closer than the odds indicate, and I would not be surprised to see Giagos win a round or the fight. This should be a striking match for 15 minutes, and Bahamondes is the better striker. I would not expect a high score for DFS without a finish.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Bahamondes
Morgan Charriere (19-9-1) v. Chepe Mariscal (15-6-0)
Morgan Charriere - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Jose Mariscal - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another exciting fight tapped for potential Fight of the Night and bonuses. Charriere won a fantastic debut and now draws the next level of competition in Mariscal, who has won both of his UFC fights. A finish is likely and could come from either fighter, making this a must-play for GPP contests. It is close, but I will side with the French sniper.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Charriere
Alexander Hernandez (14-7-0) v. Damon Jackson (22-6-1)
Alexander Hernandez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Damon Jackson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Hernandez is the better striker, and if he keeps this standing, he should win handily. However, If Jackson can take him down, we could see Hernandez get submitted for the second time in his career. I like Jackson as a dog for both cash and GPP. He should score well in a loss for cash games, and in a win, he should make optimal.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Jackson
Brendan Allen (23-5-0) v. Chris Curtis (31-10-0)
Brendan Allen - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 23 wins
Chris Curtis - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 31 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from 2021. It was a pure striking match, as Allen was unsuccessful on three takedown attempts. Allen was out-struck in that fight, but I do not see it going the same way this time. The winning fighter in a rematch generally has the advantage. However, Allen is 6-0 since that fight, while Curtis is 3-2 with a no-contest. Allen's striking has significantly improved, and even if he cannot record a takedown again, I expect him to be the more voluminous striker and even this matchup.
UFC Vegas 90 Pick: Allen
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
