We don't often see a slate with just 11 fights, but there are still plenty of options for bettors and DFS players alike to find profit on this Saturday's UFC card. We'll take a look at every bout across three platforms, including a scrappy wrestler at a rock-bottom price and a hurricane of offense with a juiced knockout prop. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Daniel Pineda ($8,200)
Darren Elkins is a throwback to the brawling wrestlers of old, which ensures that any fight he is in has the potential to break the slate. In this case, it is his opponent who will likely get the glory, as he is far more explosive and powerful and will be able to hang with "The Damage" when the fight hits the ground. Elkins will see to it that Pineda is in a fight for as long as it lasts, which will help him put up the points to make the optimal lineup.
Charles Johnson ($8,800)
Johnson's all-around game has led to an unexpected breakout in the flyweight division. While he enjoys being a solid favorite for the first time in his career, "InnerG" is still worth a look against Su Mudaerji, an action striker who tries to walk down his opponents. Johnson should be ready for this approach, as he has shown himself to be one of the rare fighters who do well whether going forward or backward. While he hasn't made much use of his wrestling in the past, Johnson will likely try to ground his counterpart, as the Chinese fighter has shown an inability to get up off of his back.
Jessica Penne ($7,600)
It may seem risky to pick a well-worn veteran like Penne in 2024, but Elise Reed's Octagon victories have come against smaller, less active fighters. For all her faults, the former title challenger will never stop trying to win, as she will stride across the Octagon and use her length to land strikes. She also still attempts to get the fight to the ground, and Reed's takedown defense rate stands at just 42 percent.
Brad Katona ($7,200)
On a slate this short, it becomes almost imperative to have some exposure to Katona at this price. The former Ultimate Fighter winner comes forward at a ferocious pace looking for takedowns, as we can see from his 4.70 strikes landed rate and his 1.71 takedown average per 15 minutes of cage time. Jean Matsumoto is a powerful wrestler and grappler in his own right, but Katona will keep a pace that the Brazilian fighter likely never saw at the regional level.
Jake Hadley ($7,700)
Much like last week, we have a late cancelation that leads to a matchup that wouldn't traditionally be a target for DraftKings. Unlike last week, however, the favorite is the one who has pulled out, leaving us with a (-450) fighter at an underdog's price. Aside from being a "free square." Hadley is the better fighter in this matchup, as his pressure, pace, and grappling should be too much for a promising but unstructured fighter like Cameron Smotherman.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Melissa Martinez OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes, Joselyne Edwards UNDER 66.5 Significant Strikes, and Asu Almabayev UNDER 46.5 Significant Strikes
Martinez has a style that lends itself to landed strikes, as she is an agile outfighter who likes to flurry and try to get ahead in exchanges. Alice Ardelean is a willing wrestler but doesn't have much technique to force the type of fight she wants, as we saw when she took on a pure kickboxer in Shauna Bannon. Not only should this result in an over on our line, but it should also be a decision win for Martinez.
Edwards introduced herself to the UFC as a kickboxer but has fallen in love with her wrestling of late, notching five takedowns and almost 16 minutes of control time in her last two fights. I expect her to stay with her new style against Tamires Vidal, who has registered an anemic 28 percent takedown defense rate in her three UFC fights. This should ensure that we stay comfortably under our strike total.
Unlike Edwards, Almabaev was born to wrestle, having notched a stunning 17 takedowns in his three UFC fights. Given this, I can only assume our relatively large line comes from the elite takedown defense rate of Matheus Nicolau (90 percent), but even if he can't get the fight down as easily as he has in the past, Almabaev still won't want any part of striking with the Brazilian, which will lead to stalemate situations against the fence.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Robelis Despaigne OVER 4.0 Minutes of Fight Time, and Anthony Hernandez OVER 11.25 Minutes of Fight Time
It's difficult to know what to make of Despaigne, who is clearly an imposing figure in the division but has a long way to go before he is considered a legitimate MMA fighter. Austen Lane takes damage in space, but we saw how committed he was to grappling in his last fight against Jhonata Diniz, and Despaigne was completely dominated in his last fight by the wrestling of dedicated striker Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Even if Lane cannot maintain his cardio, early grappling should help us breeze past this total.
Michel Pereira has leaned on his submission grappling in his new division, winning his last two fights via tap out. He will likely need a new strategy against Hernandez, who withstood the grappling of an elite BJJ practitioner in Rodolfo Vieira until he found his own submission. I don't expect a quick finish from either man here, as both will be in for a grinding affair that is more likely to see the cards than to finish so early.
Bets to Consider
Kyler Phillips Wins via KO/TKO (+525)
The more risk-averse among us may feel more comfortable opting for Phillips' win-by-decision prop (-125), as Font has yet to be knocked out in 28 professional fights. I am willing to take the shot, however, as Font has been rocked and hurt almost as a rule since his loss to Jose Aldo in 2021, and I am betting that this is the time he won't be able to battle through. Phillips has a style meant to overwhelm his opponents, which won't give Font many options when he finds himself looking for an escape in the Octagon.
