Bank of America ROVAL 400 Preview: Playoff Road Race

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

We've reached the cut for the second round in the Chase for the Cup. This weekend's event at Charlotte Motor Speedway is race number six of 10 in the playoff format which crowns the NASCAR Cup Series champion. This event signals the end of the Round of 12 as four drivers will be eliminated from the field of playoff drivers after this race. For this very crucial race NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway offer the seventh annual road course race at the North Carolina oval. Six seasons ago the owners of Charlotte Motor Speedway constructed a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course that incorporates most of the 1.5-mile oval and additional twists and turns on the infield for what the track calls a "roval" course. The configuration and type are very similar to the road course that Daytona International Speedway uses for IMSA. This relatively new wrinkle in the Chase lineup of tracks will be a real curveball for the drivers this weekend, as most are out of their comfort zone on a road course as opposed to a true oval. The fact that most of the field raced on the Roval the last six seasons will help with some familiarity, but it's still a major departure from the weekly NASCAR track. When we add the newness of this event and course with the fact that it's a "cut race" in the Chase, the pressure to finish well will be enormous. Those drivers that don't find bad luck, or don't crack under the pressure will move on in the playoffs.   

Since this is just the seventh race at a new NASCAR course, we have very little in the way of historical data to examine. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely unarmed with numbers. We do have the loop data from the last six seasons at the Charlotte Roval. Those numbers along with the historically strong road course drivers will form the backbone of our fantasy racing picks this weekend. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from last six Bank of America Roval 400's, sorted by driver rating.

Since we're running just our seventh race on the Roval, we're going to be somewhat light on historical records this weekend. We have six races to examine, and that data while helpful can't be the entirety of our analysis. The road course at Charlotte will continue carving out its reputation and history this weekend. If we look back on last season's Bank of America Roval 400, we saw a surprising and dominant performance by AJ Allmendinger to win his first victory at the Roval. He would lead 46 of the 109 laps and run away from William Byron to secure the win down the stretch in that race. Thanks to the constantly changing tides of road racing, we could have another new winner to the track this Sunday afternoon. 

In addition to the last six races on the Roval, we're going to rely heavily on the road course statistics of 2024. NASCAR will be staging their fifth and final race of the season on a road course this weekend. When we combine that much road course action with the drivers who have succeeded doing it, this becomes some of the most important data we can examine for this race. With so many unknowns, there are sure to be some surprises and even some bad days for some of the NASCAR stars. We won't be surprised by anything we see this Sunday in the Bank of America ROVAL 400. So, fasten your seat belts and get ready for some excitement, as NASCAR throws a major curveball at the competitors for this sixth race of the Chase for the Cup. The following are our picks for fantasy racing success at the Charlotte Roval.    

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports star has been incredibly successful the last two seasons on the road circuits. Byron has earned two victories and one runner-up finish which came on the Roval last season. He has a pole position, one win and 42 laps led on the road circuits in 2024 alone. In Byron's six starts at the Charlotte Roval he's captured a pole position, outside pole, grabbed 80 laps led and collected three Top-10 finishes (50-percent). Considering that the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet finished runner-up in this event one year ago and the playoff implications of this race, it wouldn't be at all shocking to see Byron win Sunday on the Charlotte Roval.   

Christopher Bell – With playoff advancement hopes still very much alive and well after Talladega, Bell comes to the Charlotte Roval looking to extend his 2024 playoff drive into the Round of 8. Fortunately for the No. 20 Toyota team, this young driver has some road racing skill. Bell won this event two years ago and has two Top-10 finishes in four starts at the Charlotte road course. He finished runner-up earlier this season at COTA and was more recently Top 10 at Sonoma. Bell has cracked the Top 10 on road circuits at a respectable 50-percent rate over the past two seasons. The Joe Gibbs Racing star will be battling among the leaders in this Bank of America ROVAL 400.

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger has always been a top performer in road racing, and that success has translated reasonably well into the new Next-Gen car. His last 10 starts on road racing circuits have netted two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a good 50-percent Top-10 rate. He is prone to the occasional mistake and bad finish, which pulls his average higher, but his homerun potential in this style of racing is unmistakable. The driver of the No. 16 Chevrolet won this event last season and has three Top-10 finishes in four-career Cup starts at the Charlotte Roval. In addition, he's grabbed four-straight victories in four Xfinity Series starts on the Roval between 2019 and 2022. That type of domination shows his comfort level with this circuit.  Allmendinger knows this facility like the back of his hand and should have a very high ceiling for the Bank of America ROVAL 400.  

Chase Elliott – While he's been winless on the road racing circuit for a while now, Elliott cannot be discounted going into this weekend's race on the Roval. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a seven-time winner on NASCAR road courses and he's a two-time winner of this event. Elliott's 109 laps led at the Charlotte road circuit lead all drivers and his 67-percent Top-10 rate here is nothing to overlook. His last win on a similar track was at Road America way back in 2021, but we cannot put a lot into that statistic. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a very skilled driver at this form of racing and he knows what it takes to win on the Charlotte Roval. He's practically a must start in all formats of weekly lineup fantasy racing.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is in precarious position for advancement in the Chase playoffs coming to Charlotte this week. The 23XI Racing youngster comes to the Charlotte Roval this weekend looking for his fourth-career road course victory. Reddick snagged a runner-up finish on the Chicago street course earlier this season and he's racked up three Top-10 finishes in the four road racing events to date in 2024. The No. 45 Toyota team really has this style of racing pegged in the new generation stock car. Reddick finished runner-up in this event three years ago and has three Top 10's in his four-career starts at the Charlotte Roval. With playoff advancement hanging in the balance, we're willing to bet we see Reddick on his "A" game this Sunday afternoon.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is in a reasonably good points position coming to Charlotte this week and is hopeful to advance into the Round of 8 on points. The Penske Racing star won the first-ever race on the Roval in 2018 and has been a very consistent performer here ever since. Blaney boasts 46-laps led, one win, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his six starts at the Charlotte road course. That equates to a strong 10.2 average finish that even rivals Chase Elliott's stats at the Roval. Blaney and the No. 12 Ford team have been decent road circuit performers this season. He finished Top 15 at COTA and has grabbed a pair of Top 10's at Sonoma and Chicago. This is probably Blaney's favorite road course, so we should see him battling among the leaders Sunday afternoon.          

Alex Bowman – Another streaky driver this season has been Bowman and his No. 48 team. The road racing circuit has yielded one win and two Top-5 finishes in 2024 but has lacked the consistency to be a completely reliable fantasy racing play. However, in Bowman's favor, he has been a top performer thus far at the Charlotte Roval. His five prior starts at the track have claimed two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a dazzling 6.4 average finish. The Roval is a different animal than most road courses, and it's not unusual to see certain drivers to excel at racing here as opposed to more traditional road circuits. We believe that is the case with Bowman. He is a track specific fantasy play for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400.     

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been arguably the most consistent performer on road circuits the last two seasons and since the introduction of the new generation car. Buescher has logged one win, three Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes across the last 10 road racing events to post an impeccable 7.9 average finish in this style of racing. That coincides nicely with his last outing at the Charlotte Roval. Buescher earned a strong seventh-place finish in this event one year ago. He now carries a three-race Roval Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. Buescher should put his skills on display again in this sixth race of the Chase for the Cup.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside

Shane van Gisbergen – It's been a rough season for the rookie. Van Gisbergen has just one Top 10 in his nine Cup Series starts this season, so it's been a tough initiation. However, road racing is this driver's true gift, and where he performs the best. His one victory and three Top 10's the last two years have all come on NASCAR's winding circuits. Most recently, the Kaulig Racing driver battled for the win with Chris Buescher and dashed to a brilliant runner-up finish at Watkins Glen, silencing his critics. Van Gisbergen now sports a 60-percent Top-10 rate on Cup Series road tracks and sports a steady 14.6 average finish. He had a subpar outing in his debut on the Roval last season, finishing 28th-place. However, we believe the talented Kiwi will be greatly improved this time around.

Joey Logano – Logano is coming off some bad luck, but good speed at Talladega and looking to rebound at the Charlotte Roval. He's in playoff advancement jeopardy, but that should help motivate him to a strong performance in Charlotte. The good news is that Logano is strong at this particular road circuit. The driver of the No. 22 Ford owns two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his six Roval starts. That works out to a dazzling 8.7 average finish across the span. Logano has been decent on road circuits this season with one pole position and a pair of Top-15 finishes. With playoff advancement hanging in the balance, Logano should turn in a strong performance.    

Kyle Larson – Larson's victory in this event three years ago sort of come out of the blue. He had led a number of laps in prior starts but just had never put it all together to challenge for the win at the Roval. Larson solved that puzzle in the 2021 battle at Charlotte. It was one of his instrumental victories that led to the Cup Series championship that season for the No. 5 Chevrolet team. Larson has been strong on the winding tracks this season with a Sonoma victory and pair of Top-15 finishes. This is typical of Larson's career on these style tracks. He's sort of an up-and-down performer, but he brings Top-10 potential to most of these style tracks. Larson was a decent 12th-place finisher in this event one year ago, he should be in consistent form again in the Bank of America ROVAL 400.

Kyle Busch – After last week's disappointment at Talladega we have to be very reserved about Busch this week. He has been inconsistent this season, but the tracks where the driver is more of a factor than the car, he has performed. Road Racing has never really been Busch's best with the exception of a couple different tracks like Watkins Glen. The 2024 season has been reasonably good on these style tracks. Busch has grabbed two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes on the road racing circuit. The Top 10's came at COTA and the Chicago street course. In this event one year ago, Busch raced to brilliant third-place finish on the Roval for his third-straight Top 5 at the facility. He has a very high fantasy ceiling at the Charlotte Roval.  

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran's recent power surge coincides nicely with this road course event. Chastain has been strong this season on the winding circuits. He has one pole, 61 laps led and three Top 10's in four starts this year on the Cup Series road tracks. Most recently the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet led a lot of laps and finished an impressive fourth-place at Watkins Glen. Chastain has not been a top performer at the Charlotte Roval, but he did earn his first Top 10 at the track in this event one year ago. Those notes will come in handy for this driver and team this Sunday. Chastain is a steady fantasy play and shot at a Top-10 finish in the Bank of America ROVAL 400.

Michael McDowell – McDowell's Talladega heartbreak may be quickly resolved this weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has been a good performer on the road circuits over his career and the last two season's he's stacked some serious accomplishments. McDowell has nabbed one win, three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his last 10 road racing events. Three of those Top 10's have come this season alone with a steady seventh-place finish in his most recent outing at Watkins Glen. McDowell has never been a top performer at the Charlotte Roval, but he appears poised to challenge the Top 10 in this important playoff race.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – Road course racing really has never been Keselowski's cup of tea, short of some good performances at Watkins Glen. As an example, he's not cracked the Top 10 once in the last two seasons on the road racing circuit and his average finish stands at a subpar 21.8. In Keselowski's six-career starts on the Charlotte Roval have netted only one Top-10 finish (2019) and works out to a 17.7 average finish. This is clearly a weekend to lower your expectations for the No. 6 Ford team. Keselowski is better deployed on the intermediate and small ovals that remain in the schedule.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The Talladega winner will have his work cutout for him in the follow up act. While all of Stenhouse's career victories and top performances have come on superspeedways, the same cannot be said for his performance on road circuits. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran's six-career Charlotte Roval starts have netted no Top-15 finishes and a lowly 24.2 average finish. In this event one year ago Stenhouse suffered a mechanical issue and finished a disappointing 34th-place. His last two seasons have road course racing have only seen two Top-10 finishes (20-percent) and a disappointing 22.0 average finish. Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team are not on the fantasy radar for the Bank of America ROVAL 400.  

Daniel Suarez – It could be another very tough weekend for the Trackhouse Racing veteran. Suarez does have a surprising 11th-place performance at Chicago to his credit, but that has been an outlier. His other 10 road racing performances of the last two seasons are mainly finishes outside the Top 20 for a poor 20.3 average finish. Suarez has made six-career starts at the Charlotte Roval with just one Top-15 finish and an inflated 27.0 average finish. His road racing performance has been off this season and his track specific history is not encouraging. We believe Suarez and the No. 99 Chevrolet team are not a good fantasy racing candidate for Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400.   

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't been a consistent road course performer the last two years. Despite winning three pole positions last season on these style tracks Hamlin has only managed just a 22.6 average finish thus far on the winding circuits for the last 10 events. However, the playoffs are well underway and Hamlin still has a fighting chance of advancing. Still, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota's six prior starts at the Charlotte Roval have netted just one Top 10 vs. two finishes outside the Top 15. The average finish is coming in around 16.8 which is higher than we like to see. Hamlin's start in this event one year ago resulted in crash and DNF in this important playoff race.