Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: Cut to the Chase

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval and is really unlike any other race track on the circuit. It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between. The course has two distinctly different sets of turns. Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2. This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex. You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car. All this combined with the 23 – 25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns. On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility. Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns. This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track. Considering that we just came from the three-wide racing action of Daytona, we're in for a big change this weekend. The rim-riding action under the lights of Darlington on Sunday night can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

The second Darlington race of the season has recently been held as the first race of the Chase for the Cup playoffs. However, NASCAR shook up the schedule and has moved this thrilling night race to the final race of NASCAR's regular season. This event will be the cut race to get into the playoffs, NASCAR's Chase for the Cup. The added urgency to improve one's playoff position or to make it into the field will ratchet the pressure up to 11 on a 10-scale this Sunday night. Drivers will take chances, play gambles, weigh risks all in an effort to win or at least grab the points to become playoff eligible.   

Figuring out our driver group this weekend won't be too much of a challenge. The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true. We have already raced once at Darlington earlier this season, so we have very good and very recent data to examine. There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 19 years or 25 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington. Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last six races at the South Carolina oval. Ford's victory here earlier in the season snapped a three-race Chevrolet win streak at the egg-shaped track. Toyota drivers have had the least success at the facility in the last few seasons. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers swept the two Darlington events in 2021, but that was the last time a Toyota driver visited victory lane at Darlington in recent events.  

The 2024 season has seen a lot of parity among the different manufacturers and there have been some momentum swings throughout. Chevrolet, Toyota and Ford have each won in the three events leading up to this weekend, so Darlington would seem to be up for grabs this Sunday. Brad Keselowski returned Ford to victory lane here in May of this year for the first time since 2022. The race would feature a competitive 16 lead changes, but Keselowski would take over late and hold off Ty Gibbs for the win. The prior three Darlington events had gone to drivers from the bowtie camp. Erik Jones, William Byron and Kyle Larson had given Chevrolet that win streak. Considering that Ford and Chevrolet drivers have controlled Darlington Raceway of late, it will be interesting to see if Toyota can climb back into the Darlington picture with the playoffs starting next weekend. Outlined below are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing star's recent power surge was interrupted by a crash at Daytona this past weekend, but Reddick will rebound nicely this Sunday at Darlington Raceway. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota had a seven-race Top-10 streak snapped at Daytona that included one win and two runner-up finishes. Reddick has been on fire of late. He brings that momentum into the regular season finale. His stats at the South Carolina oval have been mixed, but he does boast two runner-up finishes here in his last five attempts and he's led a combined 264 laps in his last two Darlington starts. He sat on the pole here in May's Goodyear 400 and dominated before running into trouble and finishing a couple laps off the lead lap. Reddick is the driver to beat this weekend.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has had an inconsistent season, but he's still managed to scratch the win column three times in the regular season. He's always dangerous at his best tracks and we expect him to be at Darlington Raceway Sunday night. Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with four wins and 17 Top-10 finishes in 24-career starts. That works out to a stellar 71-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval. With 979 laps led in 24-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame. He won this event three years ago in the old generation stock car and finished runner-up in this event two years ago in the new generation stock car. That indicates he's far from finished collecting hardware at this oval. Hamlin is always a threat to win at Darlington Raceway. 

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is a top Darlington Performer with two wins and 12 Top-10 finishes which work out to a solid 10.9 average finish at the egg-shaped track. His win in May's Goodyear 400 made Keselowski a two-time winner at the Track Too Tough to Tame and boosted his Top-10 rate at the track to 57-percent. Keselowski has been on a roll recently with Top-10 finishes in three of his last five races, including a brilliant Top-5 finish at Michigan. The veteran driver enters the regular season finale with a lot of momentum and at a track that could reward him and get things rolling well heading into the playoffs. Keselowski started on the outside pole here in May and pushed the No. 6 Mustang into victory lane.  

William Byron – Byron has been a sharp instrument on the intermediate sized ovals this season and that's a stat that's difficult to write off as we're about to head into the Chase playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has three wins and eight Top-5 finishes this season, including his runner-up finish at Michigan recently. Darlington is a bit different animal compared to the other mid-sized tracks on the circuit. The high-line racing groove is a bit of a wrinkle. However, Byron won here in 2023 and is in the midst of a four-race Darlington Top-10 streak entering Sunday. That has boosted his Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway to a respectable 50-percent. He cannot be overlooked when forming your fantasy lineups this Sunday.   

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – Larson has had some recent tough outings at the Track Too Tough to Tame, so he's getting a bit of a downgrade this week to the sleepers list. However, there's no mistaking that he loves the high line racing action of this oval as his win in this event one year ago attests. It really suits his driving preference. Larson has over 750 laps led in just 13 starts at Darlington Raceway and his eight Top-10 finishes check in at a strong 62-percent rate. He qualified well (sixth) earlier this season at Darlington and led 15 laps, however, he would run into some trouble and crash out short of the finish. Larson's career average finish at this track is a very robust 11.3 and more representative of his potential in Sunday night's Cook Out Southern 500.     

Chris Buescher – Buescher has had a pretty nice season, and his 11th-place ranking in the driver standings is a real testament to the season he's had in 2024. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has recent Top 10's on big ovals such at Michigan and Daytona last weekend, so the momentum is good coming to South Carolina. Buescher has just four-career Top-10 finishes at Darlington Raceway, but the good news is that they've all come since the 2021 season. Two have come in just the last three starts alone. He's been gradually improving here and he's whittled his average finish at Darlington down to a respectable 17.4. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has a lot of momentum right now and he had a strong car earlier this year at Darlington. Buescher makes a tempting choice in weekly lineup leagues this Sunday.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace is on the bubble for making the Chase for the Cup playoffs, so urgency this weekend will be at a very high level. The good news for this driver and team is that Darlington Raceway has a been a good oval for them. Wallace has been no slouch on intermediate and larger ovals of late with four Top-10 finishes in the last five oval events over one-mile in size. In addition, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota has been strong in recent Darlington Raceway starts riding a four-race Darlington Top-10 streak into this weekend. Those are his first four Top 10's in 10-career starts at the track, and seemingly an indicator his figured out this high-line racing style.      

Christopher Bell – The driver of the No. 20 Toyota hasn't enjoyed much success at Darlington Raceway. However, recent starts have given us some hope of potential for Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Bell nabbed the pole position in this event one year ago and led 40 laps before fading to 23rd-place. His speed and performance here have improved over the last three seasons. Recent Top 5's at Indianapolis and Daytona teases his potential for this weekend at the Track Too Tough to Tame. Bell finished 13th earlier this season at Darlington in the Goodyear 400. We believe that will be the floor this weekend. His potential will be much higher with the playoffs looming.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Joey Logano – Logano has had some tough luck of late, so we're downgrading him to the sleepers list this week. He certainly has potential to do well in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500. Darlington Raceway has been a mediocre track over the years for the driver of the No. 22 Ford. However, Logano racked up his first win at the Track Too Tough to Tame in 2022 and he's forged 10 Top-10 finishes there. Over 21 starts that works out to a reasonably good 48-percent Top-10 rate. Recent intermediate and larger oval performances have been uneven for the No. 22 Ford team, but Logano did grab a win at Nashville and Top 5 at Pocono earlier in the summer. He presents some steady fantasy racing value in this 500-mile battle.  

Ryan Blaney – Darlington Raceway has always been a track with issues for Blaney. His career numbers here are pretty poor. However, the driver of the No. 12 Ford has started to improve those trends in his last few starts at the South Carolina raceway. With one pole position, 22 laps led, two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last six starts, Blaney is well ahead of his career averages here in his most recent sampling. His recent performance on the intermediate and larger ovals has been good with one win (Pocono) and three Top-10 finishes in his last five starts on these size ovals. We believe Blaney could be one of the sneaky-good drivers this Sunday night and totally buck his historical reputation at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been a steady, but unspectacular performer over the years at Darlington Raceway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but Elliott has Top 10's in three of his last five visits to South Carolina including his reasonably good 12th-place finish there this spring. That has boosted his Top-10 rate at Darlington Raceway to a respectable 47-pecent. It has taken Elliott some time to figure this track out (15 starts) but it's clear he's becoming more comfortable here. He knows a victory here is highly unlikely, but a Top-10 finish would do wonders for the No. 9 team in preparing for the upcoming Chase playoffs.     

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran scored a ninth-place finish here in May's Goodyear 400 and that's a good benchmark for Sunday's 500-mile race at the South Carolina oval. Bowman doesn't have great career stats at Darlington Raceway (31-percent Top-10 rate), but he does now have Top 10's in two of his last three starts there. That improvement in performance lands the No. 48 Chevrolet team clearly on our fantasy racing radar going into the regular season finale. Recent mid-size oval events have been uneven for this driver and team, but Bowman teased his potential with a recent Top 5 at Pocono Raceway.

Michael McDowell – McDowell had a fantastic and strong car this past weekend at Daytona. Unfortunately, luck did not hold up and his pole position and 26 laps led would go by the wayside after a late-race crash. The veteran driver should rebound nicely at Darlington Raceway this Sunday night. McDowell has had some good runs at the Track Too Tough to Tame in recent seasons. Three of his last five starts there have netted Top-10 finishes, including his 10th-place effort in May's Goodyear 400. The notes from that outing should come in handy this weekend. McDowell has been inconsistent in recent intermediate oval events, but Darlington is a different animal and the high-line groove racing plays well to McDowell.  

Justin Haley – The young driver has just seven-career Cup Series starts at Darlington Raceway, but Haley has accomplished so much and spread across three different race teams. His three Top 10's in the last five Darlington starts alone has increased his Top-10 rate to 43-percent and narrowed his average finish to 16.6, both respectable marks for a small team driver. In May's Goodyear 400, Haley started deep in the field and somehow raced to an impressive ninth-place finish in Rick Ware's No. 51 Ford. That experience should pay off this weekend. Haley was Top 20 in both Indianapolis and Michigan races recently, so we believe he'll be consistent and good in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. – The two-time Darlington winner rides into South Carolina this week as safely inside the playoff field. That's a very good thing, because times have been lean for Truex and the No. 19 Toyota team at Darlington Raceway in recent years. The veteran driver has not cracked the Top 10 in his last five starts at the egg-shaped oval and Truex has three DNF's during that span. A track that used to yield so many laps led and so many results has become a difficult puzzle since the 2022 season. Truex has also struggles this year on intermediate and larger sized ovals. With just one Top-10 finish and a 21.4 average finish in his last five starts on tracks 1.5-mile in size and larger, we're quite pessimistic about his chances in the Cook Out Southern 500.

Kyle Busch – Busch's one Darlington win (2008) is not particularly recent, so he's not a major threat to win this race. His consistency at Darlington over the years has been remarkable. Busch's 56-percent career Top-10 rate at 16.6 average finish are enviable marks. However, this season has been nothing short of a disaster for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. His eight Top-10 finishes to this point are tracking towards a career-low total and his ranking in the standings is the lowest since 2005. Busch has had trouble and inconsistency in recent seasons at Darlington Raceway, including his disappointing 27th-place finish in May's Goodyear 400. We believe he's a high-risk driver in the regular season finale.

Austin Cindric – His struggles this season are well documented, including Cindric's troubles on mid-sized ovals. The Penske Racing driver has just one Top 10 in his last five starts on tracks this size (20-percent) and an uninspiring 17.2 average finish in that recent sampling. Cindric has five-career Cup Series starts at Darlington Raceway and no Top-15 finishes to his credit. The average finish is checking in around 20.8 which is in line with his last start at the Track Too Tough to Tame. The driver of the No. 2 Ford labored to a 20th-place finish in May's Goodyear 400, which was his last look at Darlington. There are better fantasy racing options this weekend in the middle tier of the driver pool.               

Daniel Suarez – Among full-time drivers, Suarez has some of the worst statistics at Darlington Raceway. The Trackhouse Racing driver has made 13 Cup Series starts at the South Carolina raceway and has just one Top-10 finish to show for (8-percent). The average finish is coming in around 23.9 which mirrors his last start at the egg-shaped oval. Suarez struggled to a 24th-place finish in last May's Goodyear 400. Interestingly, that was his best finish in his last three attempts at Darlington Raceway. He's had some trouble with DNF's at the track and has DNF'd in two of his last three Darlington starts. Suarez and the No. 99 team are to be avoided in Sunday evening's Cook Out Southern 500.