Grant Park 165 Preview: Street Course Survival

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series will make a return to the Chicago street course. The track is a 12-turn, 2.14-mile long circuit that is laid out on the streets of Chicago, Illinois. The area in use is the iconic Grant Park location in downtown Chicago which encompasses Michigan Avenue, Lake Shore Drive, the Lakefront Green park and the unmistakable Buckingham Fountain. This very recognizable part of downtown will set the backdrop for this interesting and first-ever race. The event is 75 laps, divided into three stages of 20 laps, 25 laps and 30 laps. Top speeds are limited by the highly-technical layout and 12 challenging turns, many including 90 degree arcs. The circuit is somewhat reminiscent of the street courses that both IndyCar and IMSA use in cities like Detroit, Long Beach and St. Petersburg. While those series have extensive experience racing on city streets, this will be NASCAR's second go-around at this type of event. Although much was learned in last season's inaugural event in Chicago, more lessons will be learned this Sunday afternoon.

Since this is a very new race, on a new street circuit layout, we have very little in the way of historical stats to examine. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely without some numbers. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated the past two seasons on the various road circuits of the Cup Series. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on winding circuits. The data will be over the past two seasons, or eight races, so it will be fresh statistics. In the table below are the driver's standard stats at Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International, Chicago Street Course, Circuit of the Americas, the Indianapolis Grand Prix circuit and the Charlotte Roval over the past two seasons, sorted by average finish.

This weekend we will follow up on NASCAR's historic moment of debuting on the Chicago course last season. The sequel will hopefully feature better weather and not the rain that was endured in last season's event. The Chicago Street Course is a purpose-built temporary circuit and layout for stock car racing. The idea was conceived thanks to iRacing. In 2021 the layout was arranged for the eNASCAR iRacing Pro Invitational Series. That event was a success for iRacing, but it also kicked off interest in running the race in reality on the streets of Chicago. The sanctioning body got to work right away and after several months of planning with the city of Chicago, the layout was confirmed and the event was announced on July 19, 2022.

Last season's debut on the circuit would run just 78 laps and not full distance due to an extensive rain delay and early darkness. Christopher Bell would be the most dominant driver of the afternoon by leading a race-high 37 laps, but he would eventually fade to 18th-place by the finish. Justin Haley would make a brilliant stab at the win, but he'd be overcome late by the road racing sensation, Shane van Gisbergen. The Kiwi would drive the No. 91 Chevrolet of Trackhouse Racing brilliantly in challenging conditions and pass Haley with 8 laps to go for the win. The veteran road racer will be back to defend his race crown of one year ago, but there will also be other strong suitors for victory lane in the Windy City. We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Grant Park 165 on the streets of Chicago.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – Already a two-time winner on Cup Series road circuits in his young career in NASCAR's top division, Bell has the obvious gift of road course racing. His 12-career Top 10's in 23 starts on these style tracks also work out to a steady 52-percent Top-10 rate. Bell's last five road racing events alone have netted a runner-up and third-place finish along with four Top-10 finishes. The young driver qualified well and led a lot of laps in this event one year ago before running into late trouble and fading back to mid-pack. Given how he's raced of late, we expect Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team to be in solid contention to win the Grant Park 165.  

Shane van Gisbergen – The bolt from the blue that no one saw coming last season was van Gisbergen. The Trackhouse Racing driver made his Cup Series debut in Chicago last season in the team's third entry and didn't spoil the tremendous opportunity. Van Gisbergen qualified a strong third on the grid and raced among the leaders all afternoon in Chicago. The Kiwi was seemingly biding his time and hanging back of the lead in order to make his move late. With 8 laps to go he would pounce on Justin Haley and make a pass for the lead. Van Gisbergen would endure two late cautions and restarts to extend to an eventual 1.2-second victory over Haley. He returns this week to defend his race crown, but this time he'll be piloting the No. 16 Chevrolet of Kaulig Racing.

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster has been an incredible performer on the road circuits the last few seasons. Reddick has one win, three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in the last eight road racing events. More amazing his how good he qualifies for these events. During that same eight-race span he has started on the front row an incredible six times for a microscopic 2.8 average start. That doesn't always translate to wins and Top 5's but it is the opportunity. In this event one year ago Reddick qualified on the outside pole and led 8 laps before running into some trouble that would hamper his finish. We believe he'll be upset minded in Sunday's Grant Park 165.

Chase Elliott – Elliott has not won on a road course since 2021, but he's a career seven-time winner in this style of racing. 37-percent of his career Cup Series wins have come on road circuits. That's an incredible percentage and a real testament to Elliott's skill in road racing. Despite being winless of late, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been really close with one runner-up finish and four Top 5's over the last two seasons. His most recent outing netted an impressive fourth-place finish at Sonoma a few weeks ago. Elliott drove to an incredible third-place finish in challenging conditions in this event one year ago. We cannot rule out this gifted road racing driver at the Chicago Street Course.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – Larson has been bit off a boom or bust driver on road circuits in recent events, but he's still managed a win and robust 50-percent Top-10 rate in his last eight starts on the winding circuits. In addition to those Top 10's the Hendrick Motorsports star has also grabbed a victory at Sonoma Raceway back in June. As prone as he is to surprise and dominate, Larson can also have a tendency to disappear when it comes to road course events. His two finishes outside the Top 15 in the last four events of this style dampen our expectations a bit, but Larson still manages a strong 11.4 average finish. Larson piloted the No. 5 Chevrolet to a strong fourth-place finish in this event one year ago.

Chris Buescher – He's been the most consistent road racing performer of the past couple seasons. Buescher owns a series-leading seven Top-10 finishes in the last eight road course events and rides a four-race road racing Top-10 streak into Sunday's action in Chicago. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver isn't a major threat to win these events, but he and his team have been good enough to stick around the Top 10 in almost every one of late. Buescher may not qualify well, but that's of little concern. He recently came from 26th on the grid to finish third at Sonoma Raceway a few weeks ago. Buescher raced to a steady 10th-place finish in his Chicago debut last season. He should be at least that good this Sunday afternoon in the Windy City.  

William Byron – Byron has really upped his game on the road circuits over the past couple seasons. He's grabbed two wins and one runner-up finish in the last four events alone. He was a dominant winner from the pole earlier this season at Circuit of the Americas, and that's a great look heading into Chicago for the Grant Park 165. Byron likely isn't a big contender to win on the street course this weekend, but he should be steady enough to log a certain Top-10 finish. He finished a respectable 13th-place in this event one year ago in not the greatest weather conditions. Byron should take away a lot from that and employ it into this second start on the circuit.  

Kyle Busch – Busch has had struggles a plenty this season and rides a seven-race Top-10 drought into Chicago this week. However, we believe the Chicago Street Course could be the event that spurs a rebound and comeback for the No. 8 Chevrolet team. Busch has been quite proficient on the road circuits since coming to Richard Childress Racing. His two runner-up finishes, four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes equal out to a strong 10.4 average finish. Busch was ninth-place earlier in the year at COTA and most recently 12th-place at Sonoma. In this event one year ago, Busch pedaled the No. 8 Chevrolet to a strong fifth-place finish. He should be very energized and optimistic about his prospects this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Joey Logano – Logano is looking to build on his big win at Nashville this past week. The follow up in Chicago will be more challenging, so we don't expect a win, but a Top 10 is certainly not out of the question. The driver of the No. 22 Ford performed very well in this event last season. Logano qualified ninth on the grid, survived the chaos and finished a strong eighth-place in his debut in the Windy City. He's been reasonably good of late on the winding circuits with four Top 10's in his last eight starts (50-percent) and a decent 15.0 average finish. Most recently he grabbed the pole position and led 16 laps at Sonoma a few weeks ago but faded to finish 21st. Logano carries good fantasy value into the Grant Park 165.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is your "homerun or strikeout" prospect for the Chicago Street Course. As an example, he qualified on the pole position in this event last season, but slipped to a respectable 11th-place by the checkered flag. Hamlin has certain road circuits he performs very well on, but this one is very new and he's not quite a dominant performer here yet. Still, Hamlin's abilities and lengthy experience make him quick to adapt to unusual races like this one. We don't expect to see the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in victory lane this Sunday, but this veteran driver and team have what it takes to turn in a solid performance on the streets of Chicago.

Ross Chastain – With his 63-percent Top-10 rate on road courses the last two seasons, it would be criminal to overlook what Chastain brings to the table in Chicago. He had some struggles in this race last season and finished a disappointing 22nd-place, but don't let that form your opinion for this weekend. Chastain has above average road racing skills and his first look at Chicago last season was a very educational experience. The Trackhouse Racing veteran rides a three-race road course Top-10 streak into Sunday's action and the most recent of those was a brilliant fifth-place finish at Sonoma just a few weeks ago. We believe the No. 1 Chevrolet team will be one to watch closely on the Chicago Street Course.  

AJ Allmendinger – Allmendinger's notoriety for road racing is pretty well established, so no need to rehash his career numbers. What's more important is what the veteran driver has done of late on these style tracks. The Kaulig Racing veteran has grabbed one win, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in just his last four starts on the road circuits. The win came at the Charlotte ROVAL at the end of last season. Allmendinger's most recent outing was a strong sixth-place finish at Sonoma just a few weeks ago. The driver of the No. 13 Chevrolet was subpar in his Chicago debut one year ago, but we're willing to bet he won't be this time around.

Michael McDowell – With plenty of apparent road racing skills, McDowell is a driver to not be overlooked this weekend in the Windy City. In this race one year ago the veteran Front Row Motorsports driver labored to a strong seventh-place finish. That coincides nicely with his 50-percent Top-10 rate over the last two seasons on the road racing circuit. Most recently the driver of the No. 34 Ford pedaled to an impressive runner-up finish at Sonoma a few weeks ago. Certainly that track is far different from Chicago's street layout, but it still takes some exception left/right turning ability to finish that well. McDowell has major upside for the Grant Park 165.     

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been a steady performer on the road circuits since last season. With three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes since the 2023 campaign, Bowman is standing pretty tall coming to Chicago. The 13.8 average finish over the last eight road racing events is very respectable. Bowman didn't have the best luck in Chicago last season as he crashed and DNF'd, but we're willing to set that aside. He did qualify well last year and started a reasonable 13th on the grid. We believe the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has all the tools necessary to challenge the Top 10 this Sunday afternoon. Don't overlook Bowman in salary cap and weekly lineup leagues.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is likely the biggest risk among the "A" tier drivers this week at Chicago. He brings above average road racing ability to the table for what he's done in the past at tracks like Sonoma and Watkins Glen, but the other road circuits of the Cup Series are inconsistent at best for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota. He has struggled too in recent outings. Just a couple weeks ago he qualified poorly and finished poorly at his favorite track in Sonoma. Truex has only cracked the Top 10 once in his last three road course outings. In this event one year ago, he got into trouble and wound up a distant 32nd-place.    

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has no Top-10 finishes in his last eight road racing events, and he sports a disappointing 20.8 average finish over that span. Most recently he finished 20th-place at Sonoma a few weeks ago, and that's likely the value he brings to Chicago. In this event one year ago, the 23XI Racing veteran ran into problems and was the last car to finish on the lead lap in a distant 31st-place. It's that kind of risk that you take on with your fantasy lineups when you roll the driver of the No. 23 Toyota on a road circuit. The challenges that the Chicago Street Course will present will be a major obstacle to his success this Sunday.

Ryan Blaney –  Blaney is an up-and-down performer at best on these tricky road circuits. His two Top 10's in the last eight starts on tracks of this style is a lower than desired 25-percent rate and 17.3 average finish. He's much more well known for what he's accomplished on superspeedways and intermediate ovals. Blaney also had a lot of problems in this event one year ago. The reigning Cup Series champion qualified mid-pack and labored to a distant 33rd-place at Chicago last July. We believe there are better options in the driver pool and it's best to keep Blaney on the bench this week in the Windy City.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – He's much more known for his superspeedway wins and surprising short track performances. Stenhouse is a driver to stay clearly away from on the road racing circuit. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has just one Top-10 finish in his last eight road racing starts and a disappointing 22.1 average finish over that span. His most recent outing was a subpar 24th-place finish at Sonoma Raceway a few weeks ago. Stenhouse couldn't hold the lead lap in this race one year ago and faded to a disappointing 34th-place finish in Chicago last season. He's a driver to avoid in weekly lineup and salary cap games this weekend.