This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Sunday's AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway was a treacherous affair with 16 cautions and two overtime restarts. In the end it was Chase Elliott who survived the madness, holding off the competition to claim his first win since 2022. It was the second win in as many weeks for Hendrick Motorsports, and it made Elliott the team's third driver to win a race this season. Sunday's high number of cautions enabled Elliott to work his way forward from a relatively poor qualifying effort of 24th. In fact, both he and runner-up Brad Keselowski started outside of the top 20, working forward through the race's many stops and starts. In the end, Elliott was determined not to let victory slip through his fingers, holding off Denny Hamlin and then Ross Chastain in the final two restarts, which pushed the checkered flag nearly 10 laps beyond its scheduled finish. In doing so, Elliott became the second driver in a row to win at Texas despite starting outside of the top 15.
The Texas chaos might be a precursor to what is to come this week, too. Talladega Superspeedway is the next stop and it looms large with its high speeds and pack racing. The track is famous for producing extremely close finishes along with massive crashes, but it also presents an opportunity for some longshots to make themselves contenders. Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney won the two races at the track last season, and both remain winless so far in 2024.
UPGRADE
Chase Elliott - Despite starting 24th, plenty of caution periods enabled Elliott to make adjustments and climb his way through the field quickly at Texas. The former champion was inside the top 10 by the end of the first stage and then stayed there until the finish. In the end, he was able to hold off charges from Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain through two overtime restarts to end his winless streak, visiting Victory Lane for the first time since October of 2022. His win also extends the step forward in performance for the Hendrick teammates after the organization put three of their four drivers in the top three finishing positions the week prior in Martinsville. Now that Elliott has overcome his dry spell, it could be time for him to get back to frequent visits to Victory Lane. Talladega is a place he could do that again, too. He is a two-time winner who finished 12th or better in his last four visits to the track.
William Byron - Everything seems to be clicking for Byron and his No. 24 crew right now. Three wins so far this season along with three other top-10 finishes have them in an enviable position. The trick for the squad will be maintaining the same form through the long summer and into the playoffs, though. Byron, again, finished inside the top five Sunday at Texas, which was his third top-five from the last four races and fourth consecutive top-10. He has been helped by the overall competitiveness of the Hendrick Chevrolets, and that power should push Byron to another top starting spot this week at Talladega. Byron's average start there is 12.5, and he started inside the top 10 in five of his last six races at the track. He has also been successful at avoiding Talladega's notorious trouble. He finished second there last fall and was seventh in the spring race. Byron should continue to be a fantasy favorite this week.
Bubba Wallace - Despite being involved in an accident with about 100 laps remaining in Sunday's race, Wallace rallied and walked away with his fourth top-10 finish of the season and second in a row. Wallace qualified his No. 23 machine 10th and went on to score stage points in both segments, too. Being able to capitalize on a potential disaster can make the difference over a season, and that is exactly what the No. 23 crew did Sunday. Wallace now heads to Talladega, a track he has won at, 11th in the playoff standings with a margin of nearly 40 points to 17th. While a race win would practically guarantee a spot in the playoffs, continuing to score top-10 finishes is the next best thing. Fantasy players should be high on Wallace this week at Talladega, too. He won there in 2021 and consistently leads laps. He'll have to avoid trouble in order to make it to the finish, but Wallace could be potential race winner this week regardless of Talladega's unpredictability.
Brad Keselowski - Another driver that fantasy players should be on the lookout for at Talladega is Keselowski. The RFK Racing owner/driver started deep in the field at Texas but found his way into the stage points in the second segment and finished second in the race behind Elliott. Keselowski is making the most of his No. 6 Ford, and three top-10 finishes from the last five races put him one point away from the playoff positions in the standings. His runner-up finish from Texas could give him some extra momentum at one of his best tracks, too. Keselowski is a six-time winner at Talladega, and it wouldn't be surprising if he got his first win for his team at the venue. He finished fifth in the spring race there last season and led two laps. With three top-fives from his last six Talladega starts, Keselowski should be on everyone's radar this week after a successful Texas.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Larson - Larson picked up Hendrick's domination right where it left off by scoring the pole for Sunday's Texas race and then driving to the stage victory in the first segment. The afternoon went south in the second stage with the car lost a right-rear tire, though. Larson was forced to pit for the replacement, and the team will face suspensions and fines as a result of the mishap. The pain didn't stop there either. Larson was involved in yet another incident late in the race. What had been a promising afternoon turned out to be a frustrating one with just a 21st-place finish despite starting on pole, winning a stage, and leading a race high 77 laps. The team has plenty of race-winning speed, but inconsistency, specifically the number of incidents, is costing him. Larson has just three Talladega top-10 finishes, and his best at the track was a fourth-place finish in the spring of 2022.
Ross Chastain - Chastain grabbed his first Texas Motor Speedway stage win by keeping his nose clean and driving to the front through multiple cautions Sunday. He started the afternoon 12th and led a total of 33 laps. In the final restarts, he was in position to race for the win, too. Unfortunately, while pushing hard to maintain position in the top three on the final lap, Chastain and William Byron made contact, which sent Chastain crashing out and ending the race. In the blink of an eye, Chastain went from a potential victory to 32nd, his worst result of the season. Accidents happen, but the silver lining from Sunday's crash would be that Chastain and team showed again that they have the speed to win races. Next week, he will be one to watch, too. Chastain won at Talladega in the spring of 2022 and finished fourth in the next visit, and it is a track where Chastain's driving style can produce top outcomes.
Christopher Bell - Bell brought out the first caution of the second stage when he lost control and hit the outside wall, collecting two other cars in the chaos. It was the second race in a row that Bell suffered problems, but the damage was limited at Texas due to the afternoon's number of caution periods and his team's work to return him to the track. More was expected than a 17th-place finish, though. Bell's average finish from the first nine races of the season is just 15.7, and the team will need to improve that, or find more wins, by the time the playoffs commence. The coming week's race could be another one with muted expectations, too. Bell's best Talladega finish was fifth in the fall of 2021 and he only has two top-10s there. He finished eighth and 14th in the two Talladega races last season, but despite starting on pole twice at the track, Bell's average finish from his eight series starts is 18.9.
Alex Bowman - One of the unfortunate casualties of Bell's trouble was Bowman. The Hendrick driver lost control while trying to avoid Bell's accident, and was clouted by John Hunter Nemechek who was trying to do the same. Extensive front-end damage left Bowman in the pits with the team trying to make repairs to return him to the fray but to no avail. The damage was heavy enough to eliminate the No. 48 from the race and left him with a 37th-place finish. The Hendrick driver leaves Texas 15th in the championship standings, 11 points ahead of the cutline. The team risks slipping further behind this week with the high potential for bad luck at Talladega, too. Bowman failed to finish in the top 10 at Talladega in the two races there last season, but does have four top-10s from 16 career tries. His best finish there was a runner-up finish in the 2019 spring race.
Ryan Blaney - The defending series champion was not immune from Sunday's trouble at Texas. Blaney qualified inside the top 10 and looked set to have a competitive day but crashed when he was hit from behind about 200 laps into the race. The contact sent Blaney hard into the outside wall and his race was virtually over after that. His 33rd-place finish was the fourth race from the last five where he failed to finish inside the top 10, too. That current momentum is not what Blaney and the team want and lacking a win means they are losing a bit of ground in the championship standings. Unlike many other drivers, Talladega is a spot Blaney could target as a potential turnaround, though. Blaney is a three-time winner there, including last fall, and he finished first or second in each of the three most recent visits.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Austin Dillon - The number of drivers having problems at Texas opened the door for Dillon to take advantage and claim his best finish of the season. Not much has gone right for the No. 3 team this season, but Sunday's eighth-place finish might be the first sign of the light at the end of the tunnel for them. Dillon qualified respectably in 15th position and importantly avoided trouble throughout the race to earn his first top-10 of the year. While one top-10 doesn't move him as close to the playoff positions as he would like, the result gives the team something to build on. That platform comes at a great time for Dillon with Talladega next on the calendar. Dillon has never won at the track, but he and Richard Childress Racing are often competitive at the superspeedways. Dillon's best recent finish there was second in the spring of 2022.
