This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Saturday's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway may have been billed as the cutoff race for the first round of the 2024 playoffs, but it ended up being all about Kyle Larson. The Hendrick Motorsports driver qualified on the front row and took the lead for the first time on lap 33. He didn't look back after that. Larson swept both stages and dominated the 500 laps to claim his fifth victory of the season and his first in the 2024 playoffs. It was the most laps led by any Hendrick driver in a race in the team's impressive history, and it was another statement from Larson as he seeks to score a second series championship.
Saturday night's race also trimmed the initial 16 playoff competitors to 12. While Larson celebrated in Victory Lane, Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, and Harrison Burton all exited the championship quest. The points for the remaining 12 championship contenders also reset for the next three-race elimination round. Larson will start the round at the top of the heap with Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, Alex Bowman, and Chase Briscoe all starting behind the eighth-place cut line. It all kicks off next week at Kansas Speedway where Larson won earlier this season over Chris Buescher in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history.
UPGRADE
Kyle Larson - Larson dominated at Bristol, capturing the win and entering the second round of playoff eliminations in style. He captured the first stage victory, his 11th of the season, by grabbing the lead early and then leading the majority of the laps to the first break. He then went on to dominate the second stage and add another segment win to that tally, too. It was his fifth victory of the season and it came in style with 462 laps led from 500 at one of NASCAR's most iconic tracks. The win assured him of continuing in the playoffs and also leaves him on top of the standings with the points reset for the second round. The No. 5 squad now has a 39-point gap to maintain through the next three races to advance again. Larson is a two-time winner at Kansas and his most recent victory there was earlier this season. He led 66 laps that day and picked up his sixth-straight top-10 finish at the oval.
Christopher Bell - Bell became the second driver to clinch a spot in the next round of playoff eliminations through his third-place finish in Saturday night's first stage. He added more in the second stage and had a relatively uneventful night as he circled the race distance confidently in the top 10 all night to finish fifth. It was Bell's 11th top-five finish of the season, and he enters the second round of the playoffs second in points with a 24-point cushion to maintain for the next three races. Consistent performances like Saturday's should be enough to see him all the way through to Phoenix, too. Maintaining a top-five caliber effort is easier said that done, but this No. 20 teams has shown they have what it takes. Bell has six top-10 finishes from nine Kansas starts. He started the last two races at the track from pole, too. With five top-10 finishes there from the last six races, Bell will likely be one of the top contenders next week.
Chase Briscoe - Briscoe's streak of improvement continued Saturday at Bristol when he raced inside the top 10 all night, scored stage points in both segments, and finished eighth to advance to the next round of the playoffs. The initial round of elimination races started in the worst possible way with a 38th-place finish at Atlanta, but Briscoe rose to the occasion at Watkins Glen and carried his momentum through Bristol, too. With the points reset, Briscoe is at the bottom of the playoff standings and will need to make up ground in order to advance again. Advancing from the coming round will be more difficult, too. In seven series starts at Kansas, Briscoe's best finish was 13th in 2022. He started 10th but finished 21st there earlier this season and will need to do better than that to move into the top eight championship contenders.
Chase Elliott - Elliott's run of rewarding fantasy owners with reliable top-10 finishes at Bristol continued last week with his second runner-up finish at the track. Despite it being a race where he didn't have the speed to contend with teammate Kyle Larson, Elliott made the most of what he had an did more than enough to advance in the playoff fight, too. It has his eighth top-five finish of the season and his best finish since winning at Texas. Elliott enters the next round of playoff eliminations seventh in the standings with a small six-point gap to potential elimination. The margins get tighter as the rounds advance and the No. 9 team will need to build on their success Saturday night to deliver consistency in the remaining six races en route to Phoenix. Elliott has one series win at Kansas from 2018 and his finished third there earlier this year.
DOWNGRADE
Martin Truex Jr. - Another mistake from Truex led to his elimination from the playoffs in his final full-time season in the Cup series. Prior to the incident, Saturday night had been shaping up to be enough to see the former champion through to the next round, but a speeding penalty in the middle of the second stage dropped Truex deep in the field from which he wasn't able to recover. Truex scraped his way into the playoffs but his best finish in the first round was a 20th at Watkins Glen. He hasn't finished better than that since Pocono in July either. That type of streak just isn't good enough for playoff success and Truex's final chance at another series title came to a close at Bristol. Withe seven races remaining in his Cup career, Truex will want to get the monkey off of his back. Not having the pressure of the playoffs on his might may help. Truex is a two-time winner at Kansas.
Ty Gibbs - A speeding penalty gave Gibbs more work than he needed Saturday at Bristol. He worked hard to recover and clawed his way back inside the top 10, but his competition in the playoff standings were able to maintain just enough points to keep the No. 54 from advancing. Gibbs has yet to win in his second full-time season with Joe Gibbs Racing, and he and the team know that will have to change if they want to finish further up the standings in 2025. That work begins this coming week at Kansas, and that venue should be a good measure of the amount of work ahead of them. From four prior visits, Gibbs has never finished in the top 10 at the track despite starting inside the top 10 twice. Gibbs won at the track in Xfinity Series competition but has yet to find the same kind of speed in Cup, and that is what he needs to improve on for next season.
Harrison Burton - Burton was an unlikely entrant to the 2024 playoffs and mechanical trouble ensured that his championship effort ended in the first round. The Wood Brothers Racing driver scored the organization's 100th race victory at Daytona just a handful of weeks prior, but he entered Bristol in the elimination zone after finishing 31st and 24th in the first two races of the round. Late in the second stage, his car was forced behind the wall with power steering issues, ensuring another finish outside of the top 30 and elimination from the championship picture despite making fixes and returning to action. Despite the victory and playoff appearance, Burton will exit the No. 21 machine at the end of the season and turn his attention to a full-time ride with AM Racing in 2025 in the Xfinity Series. He still has seven races remaining with Wood Brothers to try to deliver some more top finishes, though.
Brad Keselowski - A poor handling car at Bristol left Keselowski floundering Saturday night. The lack of pace left him uncompetitive, which was detrimental to his playoff hopes after finishes of 19th and 26th to start the round. He entered the night needing to make up ground and wasn't able to work his way up the order to get the job done, which left him unable to score the points he needed, ending his playoff hopes at a track he should have been able to rebound. However, the season isn't over yet and race wins are still the goal for the remainder of the season. Keselowski's No. 6 Ford has been a frequent visitor at the front of certain races this season, too. The coming week's trip to Kansas may be one where he can try to make up for Bristol's disappointment. Keselowski has two victories at the track from 29 series starts. He finished 11th there earlier this season and is looking for a return to the top 10.
Bubba Wallace - After failing to make the playoffs, Wallace has been on a mission to prove that he deserved to be part of that story. His team gave him a contract extension, but laid down the law by informing him that he has to improve in order to continue earning the drive. The expectation is that the No. 23 is part of the playoff each year, which means another near miss like this one may not be tolerated. Wallace put his money where his mouth is Saturday night a Bristol, though. He qualified11th for the race and went on to score stage points in both segments and finish third at the end. It was his sixth top-five of the season and second top-10 from the last five races. Nights like Saturday are exactly what his boss is looking for when they ask him to continue improving. Wallace is a previous winner at Kansas, which gives him confidence he'll keep that progress advancing.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Daniel Suarez - Despite finishing outside of the top 30 and four laps down to the leaders, Suarez amazingly had enough points to advance to the next round of the playoffs. Alarm bells were ringing early Saturday night for the No. 99 after he didn't have the pace to move forward, but the team continued circulating and did what they could, which was just enough to ensure they remained among the championship combatants. His second-place finish was what really saved him, though. It was a great start to the round that, when coupled with the 13th-place finish he added at Watkins Glen, gave Suarez the cushion he needed to advance. Even better for the team, the points reset moves Suarez to 10th among the final 12 contenders. Every position is critical in the playoffs and Suarez will need to start on the right foot again at Kansas where he has two top-10 finishes from 15 series starts.
