This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Kyle Larson grabbed his second victory of the season in an overtime finish at Kansas Speedway that produced the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history. Larson ran inside the top 10 through the scheduled 400 miles after rain forced the race to start several hours later than originally planned. The race was largely a battle between Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Chris Buescher. When a loss of track position and a late splash of fuel put Hamlin out of the picture, it was down to Larson to force his way to the front in the final restart. The No. 5 driver muscled his way to the front to challenge Buescher in the final two laps, getting a run on the No. 17 machine late in the final lap. The pair made contact multiple times off of the final turn with Larson edging Buescher for the win in a photo finish with a gap of 0.001 seconds separating the pair. It was an exciting ending to a race that initially appeared on its way to being settled by fuel mileage.
The excitement continues this coming week at Darlington Raceway, too. The track "too tough to tame" is always a big challenge, and it is the last race before the series takes brief rest from the points battle to duke it out for the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway. This race will be the last change drivers have to score a win before the series barrels on toward the summer months with the playoffs looming ahead in the distance.
UPGRADE
Kyle Larson - Larson qualified fourth and raced among the top five throughout Sunday's race to score his second win of the season, joining teammate William Byron and Denny Hamlin as the only drivers to have scored multiple wins so far in 2024. Larson's points haul also puts him on top of the championship standings. The Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet was among the fastest all afternoon, but a wheel problem during pit stops meant a loss of track position and some extra work to do. His opportunity came on the final restart of the race, though. Larson bolted to the front and used his momentum to make a run at Chris Buescher on the final lap, making contact with the No. 17 and just barely edging his car to the lead at the line to grab the win. The result was his third top-two finish in the last five races and sends him to Darlington as a potential favorite having won there last fall, too.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin's speed was undeniable again Sunday at Kansas as he sought his fourth victory of the season and second in as many weeks. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was the day's first stage winner. Traffic on pit road forced him to work harder than he would have liked, though. Still, he picked up more points in the second stage and went on to lead a race high of 71 laps. Fuel saving and a late trip to pit road put him just out of touch with the lead at the finish, but he still finished fifth for an otherwise successful race. Race results can come down to just a few moments, and those just happened to go against Hamlin on Sunday. He should be expected to continue rolling this week at Darlington, though. He has four prior wins at the track and led 177 laps there last fall. He has also led laps in each of the last eight races at the track.
Chris Buescher - Buescher thought for a brief moment he had secured Ford's first race win of the season, only to find out he lost in a photo finish. Despite not taking the race, it was still a great afternoon for the RFK Racing driver and team. He scored his first stage win of the season after powering to the front in the second stage in a five-wide move on the front straight. Once he had clean air, Buescher checked out and attempted to drive away to the win. In the closing miles it appeared as though the race would be decided between him and Hamlin, but late cautions brought other drivers into the mix. On the race's final restart, Buescher entered the final lap of the race in the lead but was barely edged at the line by Larson, leaving Buescher and Ford still hunting for a 2024 race win, but Buescher did finish third at Darlington last fall.
Kyle Busch - Busch backed up his top finish at Dover with another good race Sunday at Kansas. His Richard Childress Racing team were not having the best start to the season, but Sunday's eighth-place finish was Busch's third top-10 finish from the last four races. Another proof point of the team's improvement is Busch's ability to lead laps. After failing to lead laps in four of the five races before Talladega, Busch has now led each of the last three. He spent 14 laps out front Sunday at Kansas and might have been in the battle for the win had he not lost control and spun late in the race. Fortunately, that incident didn't cause any damage to his car and Busch recovered to consolidate his fifth top-10 finish of the season. Busch finished seventh and 11th at Darlington last season and will be working to extend his top-10 finishing streak.
Noah Gragson - Gragson left Kansas with his third top-10 finish in a row after another impressive race from the Stewart-Haas Racing driver. He now has five top-10 finishes this season and has climbed to 19th in the championship standings. Prior to Sunday's race, he and the team targeted stage points in addition to their top-10 finishes. They achieved that Sunday, staying in the top 10 from start to finish. There is still a large gap to the playoff positions, but continuing the top-10 streak he is on will help close that gap sooner rather than later. This weekend's race will be Gragson's second series start at Darlington, but his Xfinity Series record at the track suggests his top-10 run could extend another week. He never finished lower than eighth in seven Xfinity starts there with two of those being race wins. He finished first, second, and first in his last three Darlington Xfinity starts.
DOWNGRADE
Joey Logano - An 11th-place qualifying effort didn't translate into a top finish Sunday for Logano at Kansas. The former champion slipped a bit further back in the championship standings after spinning in the final stage and finishing 34th. The former champion was largely not a factor in and around the top 10 throughout the day until that incident put any hopes of a rebound out of reach. Logano now sits 18th in the standings, 18 points behind Brad Keselowski in the 16th and final playoff position. Sunday's finish was also Logano's third consecutive finish outside of the top 15. The team has plenty of work to do to turn things around, and watching the playoff spots slip into the distance is increasing the urgency. This former champion isn't used to chasing the playoffs and wrapping a spot up with a victory sooner rather than later is the aim.
Austin Dillon - Dillon's season woes extended another week at Kansas. His mid-pack qualifying effort set up a potential top-15 afternoon, but that isn't what happened. Dillon slipped backward throughout the race and largely struggled to make progress through the field in the long green-flag runs. Despite finishing on the lead lap, Dillon finished 25th. It was his 10th finish outside of the top 20 from the first 12 races this season and third in a row following his lone top-10 from Texas. While his teammate is figuring things out, Dillon continues to fall behind and is already looking at a must-win situation to be among the 16 playoff contenders. Fantasy players would be advised to steer clear of him again this week at Darlington, where he finished 35th and 20th last season, and they should probably wait until seeing some longer term on-track changes, too.
Austin Cindric - Like Dillon, Cindric's 2024 problems extended into Kansas. The Team Penske driver did well to qualify inside the top 10 and had a promising afternoon ahead, but he also slipped backward through the field as the race progressed. Cindric missed out on stage points, which proved to be especially painful when he was caught in a crash in the final stage that left him out of the race and scored in the 37th position. The result was Cindric's fourth finish outside of the top 20 from the last five races. With just three top-20 finishes from 12 races this season, Cindric is losing ground and facing a dire situation in the standings. His prospects don't appear much brighter this coming week at Darlington, either. From four series starts, his average finish at the track is 21st with no top-15 finishes.
Bubba Wallace - Wallace was also part of the crash that eliminated Cindric. However, the damage to Wallace's car was less severe and a return to pit road for new tires and minor repairs got him back on track. Wallace even made his way back onto the lead lap through the race's many cautions and that effort salvaged a top-20 finish for him. It wasn't a terrible result considering he only qualified 23rd, but Wallace would have been expecting something more. He sits just outside of the playoff spots leaving Kansas after three finishes outside of the top 15, and a lack of stage points at Kansas, caused him to lose some ground. The No. 23 crew is in the midst of a small slump. Wallace might have Darlington in his sights as a venue to end it, though. He scored three straight top-10s at the track heading into this week's race.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Michael McDowell - A top-10 qualifying effort set up a productive afternoon for McDowell on a weekend he might not have otherwise expected a top result. While he wasn't able to grab stage points, his 10th-place finish was a good result after enduring a six-race run of finishes outside of the top 20. McDowell still has a mountain to climb in the points, though. He heads to Darlington 26th in the standings, more than 100 points behind the playoff positions. To say he is in a must-win situation already is not an understatement. Still, he and the team should use Sunday's visit to Kansas as a step in the right direction to build from. Top-15 finishes shouldn't be out of their reach and leveraging what they learned last week can help them close some of the gap. McDowell's two Darlington top-10 finishes both came in 2022, but he returned in 2023 to finishes of 32nd and 33rd.
