This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Superspeedway success struck again for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. as he become the second non-playoff driver to win a race in the second three-race round of championship eliminations. Stenhouse, as usual, was quick and effective in the draft and avoided major trouble throughout the race to draft to the front, holding off Brad Keselowski and William Byron in a three-wide finish at the line. Chris Buescher and Austin Cindric picked up the stage wins, but late crashes took both drivers out of contention for the race win. As expected, Talladega was an unpredictable affair with several playoff contenders losing ground through misfortune. However, a combination of events, coupled with his third-place finish, was enough for Byron to become the first driver assured of a spot among the final eight championship contenders. Everyone else has some work to do in the next race.
The final race to determine which seven other drivers will stand alongside Byron in the next round of playoff eliminations comes this week on the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course. AJ Allmendinger won last season's race, but several of this year's playoff contenders will be hoping they can be the one lifting the trophy next Sunday. Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suarez, and Joey Logano, all formidable road course racers, need to make up ground at the track in order to advance. The pressure is on those everyone, though. Only 21 points separate seventh in the standings from 10th, and a road course stop means another wild card race on the path to the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series championship.
UPGRADE
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - Stenhouse picked up his first series victory since last year's Daytona 500 Sunday at Talladega. The JTG Daugherty driver was at his typical superspeedway best, finishing second in the first stage, avoiding trouble (mostly) throughout the race, and aggressively battling to the front. In the end, he led 19 laps and won a three-way photo finish by six-thousandths of a second. It was vintage Stenhouse, and the win reinforces the faith the team showed in him by extending his contract, which was set to expire at the end of this season, a further two years just a few months ago. Despite not being part of this year's playoffs, the organization can take Sunday's performance as a boost as they look ahead to next year. The victory could be a boost this week, too. The Charlotte road course has not been a place Stenhouse has exceled at. His average finish from six tries is just 24.2. A top 20 would be a welcome outcome.
William Byron - Two top-three finishes in the second playoff round have already earned Byron a spot in the final eight of the championship eliminations. He and the team are building momentum at the perfect time, which could be worrying for the rest of the field. On Sunday, he started 16th and worked his way into the top 10 for the second stage. Avoiding the crashes in the final stage put him in position to race for the win and he nearly got there at the line. His third-place finish was his 10th top-five of the season and it gave him enough points to ensure that no matter what happens in Charlotte, his playoffs will continue. Charlotte could still be another good week given him momentum, though. Byron was the second-place finisher in last year's race and has two other top-10s from six starts. This team always seems to come alive in the playoffs and that could be happening again right now.
Kyle Larson - Larson did exactly what he needed to do Sunday at Talladega, overcoming past superspeedway trouble to score a top finish, enhancing his position in the playoffs. His fourth-place finish was just his second Talladega top-five from 20 career tries. It was also his first superspeedway top-10 of the season. A clean day was the perfect outcome for the championship picture, too. Heading into the road course race this coming week, Larson sits third in points with a 39-point advantage over the drop zone. Another clean day at Charlotte will be enough to ensure Larson's 2024 championship charge continues. A good finish should be well within his reach, too. Larson is a top road course racer and he won this race in 2021. He finished 13th there last season, and even a day like that should be enough to ensure his spot among the final eight championship contenders.
Christopher Bell - While not flashy, Bell did himself a lot of good with a clean race and top finish Sunday at Talladega. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver was the third-highest finishing driver in the playoffs with his sixth-place result, and he scored stage points in the first segment, too. The top-10 was Bell's 19th of the season and fourth of five playoff races so far. Bell now heads to Charlotte as the highest ranked playoff driver not already locked into the next round. He has a 57-point advantage over the danger zone, too. Just a few points from the coming week's race will be enough to ensure Bell is one of the eight final championship contenders, but fantasy players should expect a lot more from him in Charlotte. Bell won at the track in 2022 and has established himself as one of the best road course racers in the series. The top playoff finishes coupled with his road course resume should make Bell a top choice next week.
DOWNGRADE
Ryan Blaney - The unexpected can often happen at Talladega and Blaney was the victim of one of those incidents Sunday. While he was quick in the early going and scored stage points in both segments before trouble struck, Blaney only walked away with five points for his trouble. The lack of productivity sent him tumbling down the playoff standings to sixth, just two positions above the cut line. With one race remaining in the round, Blaney has to nurse a 25-point gap to the drop zone. The reigning series champion has little margin for error this coming week in order to stay alive in the championship fight. Blaney did win the track's debut on the schedule in 2018, though. That victory came through a dose of good luck that saw him sneak through for the win in the final moments, but he has gone on to perform relatively well there since, too. He has four top-10s from six starts and finished 12th last season.
Joey Logano - Sunday's race didn't unfold the way Logano and his No. 22 team were hoping. Despite running up front and leading 19 laps, Logano scored no stage points, and suffered heavy damage in a multi-car crash just shy of 60 laps to the race's scheduled finish. Logano earned just four points from the day, which seriously dented his hopes of improving his standing in the playoffs. Instead, Logano is the first driver outside of the transfer positions in ninth. There is a relatively significant 13-point gap to Chase Elliott in eighth, too. All hope is not lost, though. Only 21 points separate seventh from 10th in the standings and Charlotte is yet to come. Logano has finished in the top 10 five of six times on the road course and led 27 laps on the occasion of his worst finish there, an 18th-place finish in 2022. The pressure will be on the No. 22 squad to get as many points as possible this coming week.
Chase Briscoe - Briscoe worked hard to help his playoff chances and scored stage points in that effort Sunday. However, superspeedway racing can be unpredictable and Briscoe was one of several drivers caught in the late crash, ruining his efforts to grab a top finish. Damage to the No. 14 machine was heavy and it took safety workers more time to extract his car from the wreckage than others. All of that combined to ruin the finish the No. 14 was aiming for. Sunday's 30th-place finish is now the second finish outside of the top 20 for the team and only Charlotte remains for them to salvage a chance to advance. Being last in the playoff standings and 32 points away from safety, it is likely going to take a race win to advance. His best road course finish at Charlotte was ninth in 2022, though. His average result from three races is 19.7. The team will need a significantly better performance, along with a lot of luck, to keep their playoff hopes alight.
Austin Cindric - A crash as Sunday's finish approached collected Cindric from behind, sending him to his second finish worse than 30th in a row. The damage to his playoff hopes was severe and especially painful after leading 29 laps, winning a stage, and being in position to battle for the win as the final laps approached. Sitting second to last in the standings with a 29-point gap to Chase Elliott in eighth means Cindric is facing a must-win situation this week at Charlotte in order to keep his playoff hopes alive. However, road courses are tracks where Cindric tends to punch above his weight. While that is the case, Charlotte has not been a great venue for the Team Penske driver. In two series starts, his best finish was 21st in 2022. He finished sixth or better there in all four of his Xfinity Series starts, though. Cindric has his back against the wall in the playoffs and the pressure is on for him to rise to the occasion at Charlotte.
Daniel Suarez - The weekend at Talladega was a miserable one for Suarez and the No. 99 team. The Trackhouse Racing driver was forced to do a drive-through penalty on the first lap of the race due to unapproved adjustments. That meant he immediately lost the draft and went a lap down to the pack early. Just a handful of laps later, as Chastain was attempting to blend back into the pack, he collided with B.J. McLeod to bring out the first caution of the race. Despite soldiering on, the damage was done and Suarez's afternoon was effectively over. Sunday's issues are also a problem for him in the playoffs. Suarez now has just one race at Charlotte to recover and advance to the next round. He'll have to make up 20 points in able to that, though. Road courses have been good to Suarez recently, but not Charlotte. Suarez's best finish at the track was 13th in 2021, but he started third in the last two visits.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Shane van Gisbergen - It is hard to pick just one surprise from a typical Talladega race, but arguably, van Gisbergen deserves it from his effort. The Xfinity Series regular has been honing his NASCAR craft all season, living up to expectations at road courses but also showing promise at superspeedways. Sunday, he did that in the Cup Series, where he will compete full time in 2025. On Sunday, van Gisbergen finished 15th in the race, leading 19 laps and steering clear of trouble, which is easier said than done. Sunday's effort shows that the road course veteran could be one to contend with on superspeedways in the future as well. The finish came from his ninth series start of the season and it was his best of those on ovals. He is scheduled for one more Cup Series start before the end of the season but is currently more focused on advancing in the Xfinity championship playoffs.
