This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
The GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway went caution free through the first two stages, and was setting up to be a Ford-dominated day, but Tyler Reddick's Toyota was the one that avoided the biggest incident of the afternoon in the final feet before the finish. The win was Reddick's first of the season, and it was set up by a Toyota plan that nearly fell to pieces earlier in the race. The seven Toyota competitors all bunched together through the pit cycle in an effort to make their way to the front as the rest of the field's stops unfolded, but contact between the bunch took four of the combatants out of the race. Reddick avoided the trouble, and he avoided it again on the final lap as the Ford contingent triggered a multi-car crash with Michael McDowell and Brad Keselowski fighting for the lead. That left Reddick a clear lane to slip through and claim his all-important race win, putting him firmly among the playoff contenders.
The series now turns its attention to another notoriously tough track in the form of Dover Motor Speedway. The track features high banking and an unforgiving concrete surface that tests equipment as much as drivers. Martin Truex Jr. won there last season and will be hoping to defend this weekend to claim his first win of 2024. Ford, still winless this season, will be working extra hours to ensure their dry spell doesn't extend much further, though.
UPGRADE
Tyler Reddick - Reddick led 13 laps, including the most important one, to win Sunday at Talladega, putting his Toyota into Victory Lane on a day that the Ford competitors were dominant. The victory was the first of the season for Reddick and caps his successful start to the season with seven top-10s and four top-fives through the first part of the season. Five of those top-10 finishes came in the last five races, too. Reddick has been riding a wave of momentum, and a little bit of luck at the end of Sunday's GEICO 500 helped him make the breakthrough to Victory Lane. The next test of Reddick's current momentum comes this week at Dover. It has not been one of his better tracks with two top-10 finishes from five career starts. One of those finishes was last season when he started and finished seventh, though.
Austin Cindric - Cindric's superspeedway strengths came to the fore at Talladega. The Team Penske driver qualified on the front row and then kept his car at the front of the field through the entire first stage, nipping Chase Elliott at the line for the stage victory. He also kept his nose clean throughout the second stage, chasing teammate Joey Logano to the stage win to collect even more stage points, which are a necessity given his slower start to the season. The remainder of the race was much of the same with him holding position in the top 10 all the way to the finish when he was one of the many cars caught up in the crash just at the finish. He was one of the cars caught in the carnage at the front of the field and he tumbled down the order to finish 23rd despite being within reach of the victory. Cindric and team need more races like Sunday's but with the finish to go along with it.
Joey Logano - Logano extended the Penske party by coming to the front following pit stops in Sunday's second stage to capture the segment win. It was his first stage victory of the year and continued his turnaround of early-season bad luck. He and teammate Cindric worked as a pair throughout the final stage, positioned inside the top 10, and worked to be in the mix for the victory when chaos broke out at the finish line. Logano was one of the many cars caught in the pile up and was credited with a 19th-place finish. While the race finish isn't representative of what could have been, the two sets of stage points were a decent return in exchange. He still needs more, though. Logano has yet to win at Dover despite 27 career starts. Fifteen of those starts did end with top-10 finishes, though. His last top-10 at the track was in 2021 when he finished fifth.
Brad Keselowski - While it wasn't the win he wanted, Sunday's second-place finish was more evidence that Keselowski and team are poised to win races. The owner/driver scored stage points in the opening segment and positioned himself in the bottom lane for the final miles to be in position to make a move for the win. A late block from Michael McDowell stopped his momentum, letting Reddick through on the high side to beat the No. 6 to the checkered flag. Sunday's second-place finish was his second runner-up finish in a row, too. Keselowski now heads to Dover 15th in the playoff standings with three top-10 finishes from the last four races. It seems as though it is a matter of when he will make the trip to Victory Lane. He is a former Dover winner, too. His lone track win came back in 2021, but he also finished eighth there last season with eight laps led.
Noah Gragson - It should not have come as a big surprise to many who know him, but Sunday's Talladega performance was the best from Gragson so far this season. It was his first top-five and third top-10 of the season. Two of those top-10s came at Daytona and Talladega, too. Fantasy players who were willing to take the small leap on Gragson this past weekend were rewarded handsomely. He did not score stage points, but he put himself firmly in the picture to race for the win at the finish, skipping through the last-lap melee unscathed to finish third for an impressive result in his first season with Stewart-Haas Racing. He and the team will hope that Sunday's finish represents a sustainable step forward. At Dover, fantasy players may expect a little less. Gragson was still good there in his Xfinity days with five top-10 finishes from seven series starts.
DOWNGRADE
Michael McDowell - Despite qualifying on pole and leading the most laps throughout the race, McDowell really got nothing to show for it. He failed to finish in the top 10 in either stage, missing out on points, and then crashed while trying to defend his position as the leader in the final yards to the finish line. He was credited with a 31st-place finish and a net gain of only six points from what should have been much more for the No. 34 squad. McDowell sits 26th in the standings following Talladega, and they know they missed one of their best opportunities to date to break their way into the playoff positions. They must regroup and not allow Talladega's disappointment to stunt their progress, though. That will be hard given McDowell's lack of top finishes at Dover. His best result at the track was 17th in 2022 and his average finish is 30.6.
Denny Hamlin - For the second week in a row, Hamlin finished outside of the top 30. As pit stop cycled through the field in the final stage, Hamlin was running in a pack that encountered trouble, and despite not being part of the initial contact, Hamlin's car was tagged by a spinning John Hunter Nemechek. The small pack of Toyota cars was poised to move forward, but the situation wound up taking several out of the race, including Hamlin. Dover could be a spot for him to put this mini slump behind him, though. Hamlin won there in 2020 and finished fifth in last year's race. He has two wins so far this season, both on short tracks. Dover's 1.0-mile concrete surface will be a challenge, but it is one Hamlin could use to his advantage. He led 73 laps in his last three visits scooping up two top-10 finishes.
Christopher Bell - As can often be the case, Bell was involved in an incident through no fault of his own, ruining his race and prematurely ending his afternoon. The No. 20 was riding at the back of the field in the final stage as cars ahead began to accordion, and Bell was tagged from behind and spun heavily into the outside wall. It was the first accident of the day and the third week in a row where Bell has failed to finish in the top 15. While his playoff position may be secure given his win at Phoenix, the best recipe for success in this series is positive momentum, and Bell doesn't have much of it right now. Bell does have two top-10 finishes from his last two Dover starts, though. The coming week's race may be one he uses to end his current slump, and he needs to end it sooner rather than later in order to keep improving toward a championship run.
Bubba Wallace - Potential amounted to nothing for Wallace Sunday at Talladega when he was involved in a crash with less than 50 laps remaining Sunday at Talladega. A pack of Toyota cars were pushing hard and in good position to move to the front as the field worked through pit stops. Wallace was the meat in a sandwich in a push that took out a number of cars in that pack, though. The incident was a missed opportunity for the No. 23 team, who were capable of running at the front of the field and could have walked away with another playoff worthy finish. Dover does not hold the same potential as Talladega did, too. From nine track visits, Wallace has yet to finish in the top 10. His best finish on the concrete oval was 11th in 2021. He finished 12th in last year's race, but he does not have the same potential to win this coming week as he did at Talladega.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Anthony Alfredo - It isn't often that Anthony Alfredo makes his way into the conversation of top finishers, but he did just that Sunday at Talladega. He made his second start of the season Sunday, the first since his 27th-place finish in February's Daytona 500, and he rewarded his Beard Motorsports team with a sixth-place finish. That was just the team's sixth top-10 finish from seven seasons of part-time racing in the Cup Series. The team's last came from Noah Gragson in 2022 at Daytona. The finish was also Alfredo's second in the series, which also came at Talladega in 2021 when he was running the full schedule. Alfredo typically commands a much lower price point each week, and despite his part-time schedule, he could be an option fantasy player may want to consider at either Talladega or Daytona in the future.
