NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Preview: Crowning the Champion

The finale of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived. After 35 events of spectacular crashes, dominating performances, and surprise comebacks, we have finally reached the championship-crowning moment of the sport. The drama has been building all season long, and even more so the last several weeks of the Chase. For several years NASCAR has crowned its champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but three seasons ago the sanctioning body moved this championship race to Phoenix Raceway. The Phoenix track in Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees. The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. It is truly a unique facility among those on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, and very fitting that it now determines the series champion. 

Since Phoenix Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well. Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix. However, one theme will be quite clear. Four drivers come to the Arizona desert in a dead-heat for the championship. The format of the Chase has narrowed the field to Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and William Byron. It all comes down to one race for all the marbles and all four drivers start even at 5,000 points. The stakes and the pressure have never been higher. If anything the last two weeks have shown us at Homestead and Martinsville, this has been a wild Chase for the Cup and anything can happen. The racing has been highly competitive and the fall out has made for some wild action on the track.  So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

For the first time since March, we're racing at Phoenix Raceway. It was almost eight months ago that the NASCAR Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert. Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the United Rentals 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 18 seasons at the Phoenix oval for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the loop stats for the last 37 races at the Phoenix oval.

If anyone hopes to pull a surprise upset in the championship finale, we need to examine each of the four drivers carefully to make that prediction. Two of our four championship contenders are past winners at the desert oval. Kyle Larson (2021) and William Byron (2023) are past Phoenix winners. However, we can't count out the red-hot Ryan Blaney, coming off his big win at Martinsville this past weekend. He has three victories this season and two of those have come during the playoffs. Despite being winless at Phoenix Raceway, Blaney may have the best odds this weekend of taking the victory and the championship as well. He has finished runner-up twice in the Xfinity Series at Phoenix Raceway and has over 150 laps led at the Arizona oval in that division of NASCAR. Don't count out Christopher Bell either. He was a bit of a non-factor at Martinsville last Sunday, finishing seventh-place. However, Bell is a two-time winner this season with a victory and runner-up finish in the last three events. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been a consistent performer in 2023 on the short tracks and has what it takes to step up his game and win.  

These drivers will be joined by short track specialists Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano in racing for the checkers this weekend. All four have been eliminated from the Chase, but they are all looking to end the season with a win and the momentum it would carry into the off-season. One thing is for certain, when the green flag drops at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday afternoon the fireworks will fly as these drivers compete for the big stakes at the desert oval. We'll examine those championship contending teams who are racing for all the marbles this weekend at the Phoenix short track and those who could sneak up and surprise the championship contending teams.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – By the strength of a win at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday, Blaney propelled himself into racing for the championship this week at Phoenix. He'll ride that momentum in the Arizona desert to hopefully a Cup Series title. Blaney has 15-career starts at Phoenix Raceway with 10 Top-10 finishes to his credit. That works out to a strong 67-percent rate and 11.9 average finish for the youngster at the Arizona oval. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has improved tremendously on short tracks during the last three seasons. Blaney has led nearly 300 laps, claimed one pole and finished runner-up twice in his last four starts at Phoenix Raceway. He will very likely be the man to beat Sunday in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.     

Kyle Larson – Larson will be racing for the championship this Sunday, which would be his second title if he's successful in this final race of the season. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event two years ago for his first Phoenix victory and he cracks the Top 5 at this short track at a very strong 39-percent rate. Short tracks have been his best ovals this season with one pole position, two wins, one runner-up finish, five Top 5's and 350 laps led in eight events on tracks one-mile in size or less. Momentum is on the side of the No. 5 Chevrolet team right now and his 200 laps led and fourth-place finish at Phoenix Raceway earlier this season are good indicators of potential.       

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster hasn't won this season on a short track, but Bell has been pretty sharp. He was a seventh-place finisher at Martinsville Speedway this past weekend, and that was one of five Top 10's he's collected on the small ovals in 2023. Now he carries that momentum into the season finale and battle with three other drivers for the NASCAR championship. Bell has seven-career Cup starts at Phoenix with four Top 10's to his credit, including his Phoenix career-best sixth-place earlier this season. In his Xfinity Series career Bell won at this oval (2018) and has over 250 laps led with two pole positions. Bell will be on his A-game Sunday afternoon in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race, and will have a slugger's chance for the title.      

William Byron – Despite finishing 13th-place at Martinsville this past weekend, Byron is locked into the championship round and will race for the title on Sunday. Byron has been skilled on the short tracks in 2023. He won earlier in the season at Phoenix Raceway, has led close to 400 laps, has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes for a respectable 14.9 average finish. Byron's 11 Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway have netted a victory and six Top-10 finishes (55-percent) so this has been a decent oval for the No. 24 team. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has one Xfinity Series victory at this small oval (2017) so he knows how to navigate the irregular D-shaped track in the desert. Byron should battle for the win Sunday afternoon in the Arizona desert.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star will not be competing for the Cup Series championship this Sunday afternoon in Arizona. However, Logano is coming off a Top 10 performance at Martinsville last week and looking to end the season strong. Short tracks have been a bit of a mixed bag for Logano this season with just five Top 10's (63-percent) and a 12.0 average finish, but he is coming off a solid fifth-place effort at Martinsville Speedway this past weekend. Logano is a three-time winner at Phoenix Raceway (2016, 2020 and 2022) and his 900+ laps led here make him one of the most successful drivers at Phoenix Raceway in recent seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford will race among the leaders in Sunday's NASCAR's Cup Series Championship Race.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star was eliminated from the Championship 4 despite leading 156 laps and finishing third at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday. The points earned were simply not enough to allow advancement in the playoffs. This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering. He has two victories and 21 Top-10 finishes in his Phoenix resume. That works out to a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. With an impressive average finish of 10.9 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough short track. Hamlin's riding a six-race Top-10 streak on short tracks coming into this event. He'll be strong despite not racing for the 2023 crown.    

Kevin Harvick – Harvick will be making the final start of his long and colorful Cup Series career this Sunday at Phoenix. The veteran driver of the No. 4 Ford will want to go out with a bang at one of his better ovals. Harvick has had his inconsistencies this year, but short tracks have been his better tracks. The Stewart Haas Racing star has a strong career resume at this Arizona short track. He has 1,699 laps led at this facility and nine total victories. Harvick carries a staggering 20-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race. That includes his strong fifth-place finish here in March's United Rentals 500.  Never underestimate Harvick's ability to succeed at this race track. 

Chase Briscoe – The Stewart Haas Racing youngster is coming off an impressive fourth-place finish at Martinsville Speedway. The driver of the No. 14 Ford has been good on some short tracks this season and Phoenix is one of those facilities. Briscoe's fantasy racing utility will continue to have worth yet again this week. He won at Phoenix Raceway last season and he rides a three-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. This driver and team have been consistent on short tracks in 2023 with a 50-percent Top-10 rate and 13.3 average finish. Briscoe and crew chief, Richard Boswell, likely have some very good notes from their outing in March at Phoenix Raceway and will exploit them to good effect in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex looked like he was ready for the season to end after last Sunday's Martinsville race. He had a car fast enough to lead laps and challenge the Top 5, but was handed a pit road speeding penalty and finished 12th in the Xfinity 500. That's a short track that he used to dominate in recent seasons, but not this year. The schedule holds another short track for him this week, and another where Truex has had recent success. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota won and finished runner-up at this track in 2021, but he finished a distant 17th-place in this spring's United Rentals 500. That performance aside, Phoenix is a track where Truex cracks the Top 10 at a reasonable 40-percent rate. We expect him to be fast again this weekend, and hopefully with some better luck.      

Chris Buescher – After forging a strong eighth-place finish at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday, we're willing to roll the dice again with the veteran driver of the No. 17 Ford. Buescher has been pretty strong on the short tracks in the second half of this season. He earned a surprise win at Richmond and has four Top 10's in the last five races on ovals one-mile in size and less. Phoenix Raceway hasn't held much career-long success for this driver and team, but Buescher's last two trips to the Arizona desert have yielded one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes. Those are hopeful performances and when combined with Buescher's improved racing of late on short tracks, likely a good sign that he's a Top-10 finisher in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race. 

Aric Almirola – Not that Almirola has great Phoenix stats, but given his brilliant runner-up performance at Martinsville this past Sunday, he makes a good speculative play this week to keep that momentum rolling on another short track. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran just recently announced his retirement from the Cup Series after this race, so this event will be special for Almirola. Two of his three Top 10's on short tracks this season have come in the last three short track events, so momentum is definitely the play here. The driver of the No. 10 Ford has six Top 10's and nine Top 15's at Phoenix Raceway since the 2017 season. Those efforts have boosted his career Top-10 rate the oval to just 28-percent. However, his Top-10 rate here during that recent sample is a robust 50-percent.     

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver got into some trouble at Martinsville last week that wasn't his fault. Simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, and it ruined a potential Top-10 finish for the veteran driver. Keselowski had a four-race short track Top-10 streak rolling until that misfortune. He's been good on the bullrings this season. Keselowski should rebound at Phoenix Raceway. He's never won at the Desert Jewel, but he's finished runner-up there twice over the years and he cracks the Top 10 at the Arizona short track at a respectable 46-percent. Keselowski's 13.9 average finish at Phoenix Raceway reflects the only 2 DNF's he's suffered there in 14 seasons of racing there. So he's most often running at the end and on the lead lap.

Bubba Wallace – With only one Top 10 in 11-career starts at Phoenix Raceway, some fantasy racing players will be inclined to pass up Wallace this week. We believe that would be a mistake and a bit short sighted. He was a very respectable Top-15 earlier this season at the Desert Jewel, and Wallace is coming off a decent 11th-place finish at Martinsville after a very good qualifying effort. The short tracks have been venues of consistency and reasonable success for the driver of the No. 23 Toyota. Wallace has two Top-10 and seven Top-15 finishes on the bullring circuit in 2023 for a pretty sharp 12.8 average finish. There's no championship in the offing for Wallace and team, but a good finish would round out a pretty good season.  

Austin Cindric – Cindric is the head-scratching pick for fantasy racing games this weekend. He's been pretty terrible on short tracks all of this season. At least until last week's Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway. The Penske Racing youngster qualified mid-pack at 21st on the starting grid. However, Cindric would put on a masterful performance and race his way up to a shocking ninth-place finish last Sunday. That effort totally bucked the trend of his short track outings this season. We're going to bet he stays on a roll at Phoenix Raceway.  This will be Cindric's fourth-career Cup Series start at the Phoenix oval, and while his resume is short, we do see that he finished a very respectable 11th-place in this event one year ago.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Chase Elliott – Sunday afternoon will bring to a close this 2023 season and it can't come soon enough for Elliott and the No. 9 team. The struggles started early in the year with the snowboarding accident and broken leg. The missed races and time healing just put Elliott on a poor trajectory for the rest of the year. He'd fail to get any momentum rolling and is still winless as we come to race number 36. The short tracks have suffered immeasurably this season. Elliott has just two Top 10's in six starts and he was a disappointing 17th-place this past Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. Despite being a one-time Phoenix winner, and sporting a robust 57-percent Top-10 rate at the Arizona short track, we cannot give a recommendation to start Elliott this Sunday.  

Tyler Reddick – Despite a deep drive into the Chase playoffs and good early season performance on short tracks, we can't endorse Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team this weekend. The last three short track efforts for Reddick have been disappointing 16th-, 15th- and 26th-place finishes at Richmond, Bristol and last week at Martinsville. The wheels have proverbially come off this driver and team. Reddick has had some recent success at Phoenix Raceway (a pair of third-place finishes in the last three attempts), however, his career long numbers there are still behind the curve. The young driver has a 29-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix and 18.4 average finish due to some early-career struggles he had at the track.       

Kyle Busch – Perhaps no other "star driver" has struggled more in the second half of this season than Busch. Despite manufacturing three wins this season, the No. 8 Chevrolet team has hit hard times of late. With just three Top-10 finishes to this point in the Chase playoffs, Busch made an early exit from the championship hunt. Last week at Martinsville, he struggled to a distant 27th-place finish. That performance was emblematic of the struggles Busch and his team have had on bullrings this season. Busch has just two Top-10 finishes in eight starts this season on short tracks and an uninspiring 18.8 average finish. Even though Busch has outstanding career numbers at Phoenix Raceway, we believe his struggles will continue in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.                 

Alex Bowman – With just a 13-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix Raceway and 22.9 career average finish at the Desert Jewel, Bowman has his issues with this track. He did race to a rare Top-10 finish there in March of this year, but that has been the outlier for the No. 48 team at Phoenix. Bowman has had his struggles on short tracks in 2023 with a 29-percent Top-10 rate and mediocre 15.0 average finish. This past weekend at Martinsville Speedway was a terrible last look heading into the season finale. Bowman struggled to qualify 22nd on the grid and limped to a distant 32nd-place finish in the Xfinity 500 last Sunday. It appears this driver and team are ready for this season to conclude and with all haste.