This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Mission 200 at The Glen
Location: Watkins Glen, New York
Course: Watkins Glen International
Format: Road Course
Laps: 82
NASCAR Xfinity Mission 200
The contrast between the Cup and Xfinity playoff formats is made extremely clear this weekend, as both series will head to something of a specialty track. This is the penultimate race before the playoffs begin in the Xfinity series. Barring new winners, the playoff picture is pretty well set. Watkins Glen does present the opportunity for something unexpected to occur.
Briefly looking back to last weekend, Austin Hill continued his dominance in Atlanta with his fourth win in the last five races at the circuit – including a sweep this season. It was also an excellent day for Parker Kligerman. He finished third and now has a 74-point cushion for a playoff position. The story is similar for Sammy Smith, who finished seventh and now is 44 points above the cutline.
Key Stats at Watkins Glen
Number of Races: 29
Winners from Pole: 9
Winners from top-five starters 22
Winners from top-10 starters: 24
Previous 10 Watkins Glen Winners
2023- Sam Mayer
2022- Kyle Larson
2021- Ty Gibbs
2019 – Austin Cindric
2018 – Joey Logano
2017- Kyle Busch
2016- Joey Logano
2015- Joey Logano
2014- Marcos Ambrose
2013- Brad Keselowski
Watkins Glen is a street course with a long history in auto racing, highlighted by a former iteration of the United States Grand Prix. NASCAR races on the short course, which features 11 turns and three lengthy straights.
In terms of analysis, this won't be the typical race weekend. We can almost entirely let go of recent form and pick out the road course specialists. As is typically the case, we also have a lot of Cup Series drivers taking the track on Saturday. In addition to the traditional Xfinity field, we have Ty Gibbs, William Byron, Aric Almirola, Joey Logano and Ross Chastain.
NASCAR Xfinity DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Focused Health 250
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Shane van Gisbergen - $11,100
Ty Gibbs - $10,700
William Byron - $10,500
AJ Allmendinger - $10,300
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sam Mayer - $9,800
Connor Zilisch - $9,500
Austin Hill - $9,000
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed - $8,800
Parker Kligerman - $8,700
Joey Logano - $8,300
Jesse Love- $8,000
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Sammy Smith - $7,800
Chandler Smith - $7,600
Tier 5 DraftKings Values
Ryan Sieg - $6,900
Parker Retzlaff - $6,800
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for the Focused Health 250
AJ Allmendinger - $10,300
Sheldon Creed - $8,800
Joey Logano - $8,300
Jesse Love- $8,000
Sammy Smith -$7,800
Parker Retzlaff - $6,800
This build highlights the fun of DFS in general and is certainly specific to racing. Stars and scrubs is the optimal approach in most cases on more unpredictable tracks such as superspeedways, but road courses are a bit easier to project. The result is building primarily through the middle tiers.
Starting at the top, it does still make sense to build through an elite option or two. There's justification for any of the Tier 1 drivers, but Allmendinger and Byron stand out as my two favorites. Not only has Allmendinger had success on the track at the Xfinity level (second-place finishes in both 2021 and 2022), but he's also carried that success over to the Cup series. On a slate with tight pricing in the middle tiers, even his $200 gap in pricing to Byron opens things up.
There are a few interesting options to talk about in tier two. Zilisch is set to make his Xfinity debut, but he took pole for Friday night's ARCA race at Watkins Glen. He's not sneaking up on anyone based on his price, so he doesn't make the final cut. Nevertheless, he's a name to track.
One look at Sheldon Creed's driver ratings explains the reason for his appeal at this track. He has a 100.5 driver rating at Watkins Glen in two races, and in the last three races at other road courses, he's had similar success including Portland (110.8), Charlotte Roval (104.1) and Sonoma (96.6).
Logano's success at this track speaks for itself. That hasn't translated quite as well to the Cup series, but he's not priced in the same range as Byron or Van Gisbergen. He needs to be solid, not spectacular, to pay off and that's something I'm willing to take the chance on.
Love hasn't been to Watkins Glen at Xfinity, but he has road-course success littered throughout his resume. That includes an ARCA win at the Utah Motorsports Campus in 2020 as well as a sixth-place finish at COTA and fifth at the Chicago Street Course this finish in Xfinity.
Smith has a similarly solid resume at road courses such as Sonoma, COTA and the Chicago Street Course. He's a less confident click than some of the other names discussed so far, but his price intersects well with his road-course results.
Retzlaff is the one punt play I'd really be worth considering. He qualified 12th at Chicago Street Course and also tallied an 11th-place finish at COTA and a ninth-place finish in Portland. He excels in road courses and superspeedways, so this is another weekend to consider him.
