Toyota Owners 400 Preview: Racing Perfection

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

The NASCAR Cup Series will leave the road circuit and go short track racing this weekend as we head to Richmond. The small Virginia oval hosts this Sunday evening's Toyota Owners 400. Richmond Raceway is a three-quarter mile oval with median banking of 14 degrees in all the turns. The racing result is the contact and fender-beating of Bristol, with the feel of Charlotte due to the higher speeds. Drivers run average laps of close to 120 mph which is much faster than the half-mile short tracks, but with the same close quarters racing that produce excitement in abundance. Much like the other short tracks on the circuit, drivers must conserve their brakes. The continual braking in the corners can be tough on those brake pads and rotors. Over the years many fast cars at RIR have retired to the garage early due to overdriving in the corners and lack of brake preservation. Also, watch the fuel gage closely. Unlike most short tracks, the long green flag runs can turn any Richmond race into a pit strategy and fuel conservation affair. All-in-all Richmond may be one of the best spectator tracks in the series. It's the fun competition, momentum swings and varied strategies that make this one of the best venues on the NASCAR Cup Series tour. It will be hard to top that just-completed Circuit of the Americas race, but when you take into account the parity we've seen in the NASCAR Cup Series thus far this season, we could be in for one of the most entertaining races to this point in 2024. 

As we take a brief look back on the only "short track" event thus far this season, Phoenix, for some finishing data to consider this weekend, we'll need to also take into account the recent trends at the Richmond short track as well. This ¾-mile oval is a unique facility and has enough similarities to the larger ovals to put a bit of a wrinkle in our usual short track lineup of drivers. So this weekend, the loop data from RIR will have a greater emphasis than some of the other tracks we've examined this season. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 18 years or 37 races at Richmond Raceway.

This event one year ago we witnessed Kyle Larson rise late and literally steal the victory away from William Byron, who had led the most laps on the day. The Toyota Owners 400 would see Byron dominate a good portion of the event and lead 117 laps of the 400 raced. However, Larson would run him down in the late laps of stage 3 and take the lead with 25 to go after beating Byron off pit road. Then the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet would out-muscle Josh Berry and Ross Chastain and cruise to the checkered flag. It was Larson's second-career Richmond victory and first of the 2023 season.  

The NASCAR Cup Series would return to the Richmond short track in July of last year. It would be a sweet upset for Ford as Chris Buescher would lead 88 laps late and pull away from Toyota driver Denny Hamlin to capture the win. It was part of a day of dominance for the Ford brand as Brad Keselowski would lead a whopping 102 laps and dominate most of the event before Buescher swept into victory lane. For the driver of the No. 17 Ford, it was his first-career win at Richmond Raceway. Buescher and Hamlin are both names to keep an eye on, they always bring their best to Richmond. What will we witness this weekend at Richmond Raceway? Current hot streaks will play a big part, but we have to like some of the veteran short track aces to have a leg up on the younger drivers. The following drivers will give you an edge in your fantasy racing leagues, and hold the keys to success at Richmond Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin's four-career Richmond victories place him second among active drivers to Kyle Busch and his six wins. Coming off the victory at Bristol a couple weeks ago and strong showing at Phoenix earlier this season, the No. 11 Toyota team appears to be sharp on short tracks to start this season. Hamlin's four-career victories and 2,200+ laps led at Richmond cannot be easily discounted. He won this event two seasons ago and he now sports a stunning 53-percent Top-5 rate at this facility. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has finished runner-up at this track three times just since the 2021 season and that includes his last start at Richmond Raceway last July. Of all the short tracks on the Cup Series tour, Richmond is probably Hamlin's favorite.  

Kyle Larson – Larson picked up his second-career Richmond win in this event one year ago. The Hendrick Motorsports star recently cracked the Top 5 at the Bristol short track and that's a good indicator coming to Richmond this week. Aside from Larson's two Richmond wins, he cracks the Top 10 at this oval at a 44-percent rate and his 11.3 career average finish here is pretty strong. The veteran driver has never been a big lap-leader at this track, just 185 total laps led in 18 starts, but he always seems to find a way to rise late in these races and become a factor down the stretch. This is thanks mostly to long green-flag runs at Richmond Raceway and the strategy component to racing here. This driver and team will be in the mix to win Sunday in the Toyota Owners 400.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has just seven Cup Series starts at Richmond, however, they've been quite something. Bell has raced to four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in those seven starts, and has a strong 7.7 average finish at the track across those efforts. Bell likes this place. Coming off an impressive runner-up finish at COTA this past Sunday, the No. 20 Toyota team will be one to watch closely this week in Virginia. In addition, Bell has been sharp in his two short track events thus far this season. He claimed a big victory at Phoenix at the beginning of March and raced to a Top-10 finish recently at Bristol. Richmond Raceway presents the young driver with another good opportunity to visit victory lane.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran is our last Richmond winner. Buescher marched to the convincing win in last July's Cook Out 400. He would lead 88 laps that day and put his Ford Mustang into victory lane at the close. While Buescher's career stats at this track are nothing special, he really turned things up a notch at Richmond since NASCAR's move to the new generation stock car. As evidence, the veteran driver nabbed an impressive third-place finish in August of 2022 in the Federated Auto Parts 400. So far this season, Buescher and the No. 17 team have been runner-up finishers at Phoenix and seventh-place finishers recently at Bristol. This driver and team are not to be underestimated this weekend.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski's Richmond Raceway history is quite the piece of work. He's a two-time winner at the oval, and has 14 Top-10 finishes (50-percent rate) across 28 starts. He's been sharp in recent visits with a 10th-place finish in this event one year ago and 102 laps led and sixth-place finish here last July. In fact, Keselowski hasn't finished outside the Top 15 at Richmond since 2015. The average finish at the track across 14 years of competition is a razor sharp 12.1 for Keselowski. Coming off Top-5 finishes at both Phoenix and Bristol this young season, this driver and team will be hungry coming to Richmond. He's a Top-10 threat in the Toyota Owners 400 with a lot more upside in addition to that.

Ty Gibbs – Coming off his third Top-5 finish of the season at COTA this past Sunday, Gibbs is on fire to start this season. The young driver is a lofty second overall in the driver point standings and looking to stay on a roll at Richmond. Gibbs and the No. 54 Toyota team have earned one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes on the short tracks of Phoenix and Bristol to this point, so hopes for a strong performance at Richmond are well founded. Gibbs has just three Cup Series starts at Richmond Raceway with one Top-10 finish to his credit, but this weekend will likely hold his career-best effort this facility. In Gibbs' Xfinity Series career, he carved this oval up to the tune of 181 laps led, one pole, one win and two Top-10 finishes. He'll race among the leaders Sunday in the Toyota Owners 400.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is a three-time Richmond winner and they have all come since the 2019 season. His recent boost in performance here has lifted his Richmond career averages quite a bit. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota now has 17 Top-10 finishes (49-percent) and a respectable 15.3 career average finish at Richmond Raceway. Truex has nabbed Top-10 finishes in nine of his last 10 Richmond starts and he now owns a mind blowing 1,300+ laps led at this facility. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has started this season strong on the small ovals with seventh- and second-place finishes at Phoenix and Bristol to this point. Those are strong indicators of a big performance potential this weekend at Richmond Raceway.

Joey Logano – Logano has had his struggles on short tracks to this point in 2024, but we're calling for the rebound effort this weekend. If any track can get the No. 22 Ford team going, it's Richmond Raceway. Logano's two wins and 13 Top-5 finishes in 29-career starts are impressive, but his consistency is key here. The 18 Top-10 finishes he's accumulated work out to an impressive 62-percent Top-10 rate and Logano rides a three-race Richmond Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. The Penske Racing star won't be a major threat to win this race, but the Toyota Owner's 400 should easily be Logano's best short track outing to-date in the young season.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Richmond & solid upside

Alex Bowman – After six races it's pretty clear that Bowman and the No. 48 team have their act together. He's fresh off a strong fourth-place showing at Circuit of the Americas and now he returns to Virginia for some short track action. Bowman is a one-time Richmond winner (2021) and he's cracked the Top 10 in four of his last seven starts at the track. His career-long numbers at Richmond aren't that great, but he's been very sharp here since the 2020 season. Bowman and the No. 48 team weren't overpowering recently at Phoenix, which is a comparable sized oval. However, he was a Top-5 finisher at Bristol a couple weeks ago. With that being said, Bowman cannot be overlooked this weekend and will easily be a Top-10 finisher in the Toyota Owners 400.

Chase Elliott – Elliott has not been "A" tier material this young season, in fact, it's a bit puzzling how well his teammates at Hendrick Motorsports have performed and Elliott has lagged. Still, the short track equalizer will be in play this weekend, so we feel that the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet will at least be sleeper worthy. Elliott sports a career 40-percent Top-10 rate at Richmond and a respectable 11.2 average finish. He's not a world-beater here, in fact, he's never won a Cup race here in 15 starts. However, he's generally a Top-10 finisher as he has been in three of his last six starts at the Virginia short track. Elliott and the No. 9 team earned a steady eighth-place finish last time out on a short track a couple weeks ago in Bristol. That's trending in the right direction.   

Michael McDowell – McDowell will look to rebound from his mechanical issues and poor finish at COTA this past week. The Front Row Motorsports veteran had been on a pretty good streak at the two short tracks NASCAR had visited earlier in March. McDowell grabbed eighth- and 11th-place finishes at both Phoenix and Bristol to help boost him in the driver standings. The driver of the No. 34 Ford earned an impressive sixth-place finish in this event one year ago at Richmond Raceway. McDowell has just that one Top 10 in his career-long Richmond portfolio, but don't let that be a discouragement. FRM and McDowell have been trending in this improved direction since the launch of the Next Gen car and they are now very competitive on the circuit's short tracks.  

Chase Briscoe – The Stewart Haas Racing driver was pretty sound and consistent last season at Richmond Raceway. Briscoe piloted his No. 14 Ford to respectable 12th- and 11th-place finishes at the track in 2023. That dovetails nicely with his short track efforts of this young season. Briscoe earned ninth- and 13th-place finishes earlier this month at Phoenix and Bristol. The competitive level of racing should continue this weekend for this driver and team. Briscoe has qualified well for these short track events and he's parlayed that into good finishes as well. We wouldn't be at all surprised to see this young driver race to his first-career Top-10 finish at Richmond Raceway this Sunday afternoon.

Ryan Preece – When looking for good fantasy racing values on short tracks, it's sometimes helpful to tab drivers who made their racing development on short tracks or in dirt racing. Preece is a great example of this idea. The Stewart Haas Racing driver has been a low-yielding fantasy driver in recent seasons, but short tracks appear to be his best facilities. Preece recently nabbed a Top-15 finish at Bristol a couple weeks ago and that's a good illustration of this point. His last two Richmond performances have netted one Top-10 and two Top-20 finishes for a respectable 11.5 average finish. The driver of the No. 41 Ford's last outing at Richmond was a stunning fifth-place finish in last July's Cook Out 400.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace and the No. 23 Toyota team are looking to recapture the thunder they opened the season with grabbing Top 5's at both Daytona and Atlanta. Since then, things have been pretty inconsistent for the 23XI Racing driver. Wallace has been a good short track performer in recent seasons, and his last four Richmond efforts show a pair of Top-15 finishes. His last start at the Virginia short track yielded a steady 12th-place finish last July. Wallace would qualify fifth on the grid that weekend and lead 80 laps before finishing near the Top 10. That's been his best effort to-date at the Richmond oval and a good look heading into Sunday's Toyota Owners 400.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

William Byron – Coming off the big COTA win this past weekend we're calling for the fantasy fade on Byron this week at Richmond. Despite good qualifying efforts at both Phoenix and Bristol recently, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has struggled to 18th- and 35th-place finishes in those two events. That's a bad look coming to Virginia this week for the Toyota Owners 400. Byron hasn't had a lot of success at the Richmond short track either. His career stats here show just two Top-10 finishes in 11 starts for a lowly 18-percent Top-10 rate and pedestrian 15.9 average finish. Byron seems to qualify well here and even lead laps in his recent past, but finishing well has been the real trick for this driver and team.    

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing star is off to a good start to the season, but we're visiting a short track where he's had very limited success over the years. Blaney has 15-career starts at Richmond Raceway and just three Top-10 finishes (20-percent) to his credit which registers a 20.1 average finish. Theses marks are well below our normal boundary for fantasy deployment. Blaney has been decent on the short tracks to this point in 2024, but not overpowering by any means. He's really a much better suited driver for intermediate ovals and superspeedways. Blaney's last two visits to Richmond Raceway netted 26th- and 14th-place finishes. It seems that poor qualifying at the Virginia oval has contributed to this driver and team's struggles. It's best to bench Blaney this week and look to redeploy him on larger upcoming tracks in the schedule.

Kyle Busch – The No. 8 Chevrolet team are struggling a bit to start the season. The short tracks have been the biggest puzzle so far for Busch. Despite incredible career records at both Phoenix and Bristol, the Richard Childress Racing star limped to 22nd- and 25th-place finishes in those two recent events. Qualifying has not been good for this driver and team and maintaining the lead lap has been a struggle. Despite Busch's stellar Richmond career stats (six victories and 28 Top-10 finishes) we're calling for the fantasy racing fade this week. Thus far the team has not been able to give this short track racing extraordinaire a car capable of competing on the bull rings, and so it's a big gamble to deploy him at Richmond Raceway this Sunday.    

Ross Chastain – Richmond Raceway hasn't been a great oval for Chastain during his Cup Series career. The Trackhouse Racing star has just two Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts at the central Virginia oval. The average finish of 21.3 is way off what we'd consider to be worthy of a fantasy racing start this weekend. Despite his strength this season on intermediate ovals and road circuits, Richmond is one of the few tracks where the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has very little success. Chastain has struggled to just one Top 10 in his last four starts at Richmond and his last start at the track last July netted a disappointing 24th-place finish for the No. 1 Chevrolet team.