Xfinity 500 Preview: Prelude to the Championship

This week we visit the circuit's shortest track to bring to an end the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup. The NASCAR Cup Series visits Martinsville Speedway, which is the circuit's shortest track, nestled in the foothills of Southern Virginia. After visiting superspeedways and intermediate ovals for most of the Chase, we swing to the other extreme for this week's Xfinity 500. With the big shift in racing style, the drivers had better be prepared for the surprises that the bullring at Martinsville will provide. 

Martinsville Speedway is best described as a "paperclip" shaped track for its twin 800 foot straight-aways capped with hair-pin corners banked at a modest 12 degrees. Racing at Martinsville requires mental toughness, physical stamina, and razor sharp concentration, and that doesn't even include the durability of your equipment which takes a brutal pounding on this abusive small oval. So, survival will be the name of the game this weekend as the playoff drivers take to the short track in Southern Virginia. Martinsville Speedway demands the ultimate performance from both the driver and the car, so it is fitting that this bullring is one of the pivotal races that crowns NASCAR's champion. Some of the top contenders for this season's championship are excellent short track drivers, so we should see some real fireworks at the front of the pack this Sunday afternoon. For those playoff drivers still vying for a spot in the Championship Round of the Chase, the stakes will be very high in this 500-lap brawl. Among those are the teams of Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. All four have been improving dramatically at the Virginia short track in recent seasons. Hamlin and Truex alone have combined to win eight Martinsville races during their careers. So this group of championship hopeful drivers are definitely in the right place at the right time this weekend to possibly secure a championship round-advancing win.

Let's take a quick look at the recent history of Martinsville Speedway. We have a select group of drivers that rise above the field on short tracks, and we expect to see them running up front on Sunday. As the loop stats will illustrate, there's a group of the usual suspects we expect to dominate short track racing at the top. Among these are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron and Christopher Bell. This group of drivers have combined to win 12 races at this small oval. So these guys will be among the contenders to win the Xfinity 500. In the table below are the loop stats for the last 37 races at Martinsville Speedway.

A lot has happened since the last race at Martinsville Speedway in April of this year. Parity has prevailed and we've had 12 different drivers win since that Kyle Larson victory at Martinsville. Shane Van Gisbergen and Michael McDowell orchestrated road course wins during the Summer. Chris Buescher forged three big wins in July and August. Ross Chastain pulled his surprising, upset victory at Nashville Superspeedway in June. AJ Allmendinger staged an underdog win most recently at the Charlotte ROVAL in early October. Kyle Busch was shockingly eliminated from the Chase field after the Round of 12 at the Charlotte Roval. Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Martin Truex Jr. are trying desperately to stay alive in terms of the championship, so they'll be racing for the win this Sunday at Martinsville to get the ticket to Phoenix. All-in-all it has been a wild season of NASCAR racing since the last time we visited the historic Virginia short track. 

If this week's race plays out like the earlier installment at Martinsville, we should be in for some similar action. Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece would dominate almost the entirety of the race and lead 244 combined laps. However, Kyle Larson would rise late and subdue Joey Logano after the final caution of the day. The Hendrick Motorsports star would lead the final 30 circuits of the half-mile short track and grab the comfortable 4-second win over Logano. There's good reason to believe we could see a similar scenario develop in Sunday's Xfinity 500. There were just 10 lead changes in April's NOCO 400. Part of that was due to the reduced distance (400 vs. 500 laps) and part was due to the current short track package on the new generation car, which made passing on this challenging short track difficult. Those who qualify well again this weekend could be the drivers to watch closely as we could see a repeat of dominance at the front. We'll examine the short track specialists who thrive on small ovals like Martinsville, and give you the tips that will help you win your fantasy league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Coming to Martinsville, Hamlin's point standing has him in precarious position of advancing to the Championship 4. For that reason alone, he'd love to visit victory lane here again and punch his ticket automatically to the finale. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has five-career wins at Martinsville Speedway, and he's led over 2,200-career laps at the half-mile oval. A win here would lock him into the championship round at Phoenix the following week. The No. 11 Toyota team has a short track win this season (Bristol – September) and he has a runner-up finish at Richmond in July. He's cracked the Top 5 on short tracks this season at an amazing 57-percent rate with close to 300 laps led. Hamlin is visiting one of his favorite short tracks at a very crucial time during the playoffs.

Kyle Larson – Larson picked up career win No. 1 at Martinsville Speedway earlier this season, after many years of flirting with victory lane here. Larson has two pole positions, one win, one runner-up finish and 175 laps led in his last four starts at Martinsville Speedway. Coming off the big disappointment at Homestead this past week, Larson will look to right the ship before Phoenix in Sunday's Xfinity 500. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been the apex predator this season on the short tracks. Larson has two victories, one runner-up finish and five Top 5's on the small ovals in 2023. His most recent outing was 20 laps led and a runner-up finish at Bristol in mid-September. Larson has a great shot at sweeping this oval and taking another grandfather clock trophy this Sunday in Virginia.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has suffered through some inconsistency this season, but is still alive in the championship picture and coming to Martinsville with a good short track resume this season. Truex is also a three-time victor at this historic short track and all have come since 2019. That's a big plus for the No. 19 Toyota team. His Martinsville resume has improved dramatically of late, and Truex has led 1,016 laps at Martinsville Speedway since the 2015 season. The veteran driver has two victories at the bullrings in 2023 (Dover and Loudon) and he nabbed a brilliant third-place finish earlier this season at Martinsville Speedway. With advancement into the championship round at Phoenix hanging in the balance, we expect Truex to give a supreme effort.

William Byron – Byron is still alive in terms of making the Championship 4, and that's great news coming to Virginia for this round of the playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster could advance on points, but a win and automatic berth that go with it would be preferred. Byron has a win and runner-up finish at Martinsville Speedway since 2019 and he cracks the Top-10 here at a reasonably good 55-percent rate. Short tracks have sort of been a mixed bag for the No. 24 Chevrolet team this season, however, Byron does have a win earlier in the campaign at Phoenix. With close to 400 laps led on the short tracks this season, Byron has done a lot of running up front. The Martinsville oval isn't his best short track, but he'll be motivated to win and that will be dangerous for the field.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – The last time the series visited Martinsville, Logano was a brilliant runner-up finisher. That is one of two runner-up efforts for him in the last three races at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been fast in recent Martinsville Speedway outings. Logano rides an eight-race Martinsville Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. These recent efforts have boosted his career Top-10 rate at the track to a strong 59-percent. Logano has been consistent on the small ovals this season, just not fast enough to win. His four Top-10 finishes, including two runner-up efforts, check in at a good 57-percent rate. He'll be a strong fantasy racing choice in Sunday's 500-lap battle.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is a one-time Martinsville winner (this event one year ago) despite only having a 29-percent Top-10 rate at Martinsville Speedway. This time the stakes are higher for the No. 20 team as Bell is thick in the heat of the championship battle. He's been racing extremely well of late and contending for wins, albeit on larger ovals. Bell has been very consistent on the short tracks this season. He's accumulated two pole positions, 215 laps led and four Top-10 finishes (57-percent). Bell's most recent short track outing in Bristol netted a pole, 187 laps led and an impressive third-place finish in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. He won't likely win the Xfinity 500, but Bell will almost certainly be a face among the Top 10 when the checkered flag waves.

Brad Keselowski – Being a two-time winner of the grandfather clock trophy and boasting nearly 900 laps led for his career are major endorsements of Keselowski this weekend. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has collected 17 Top-10 finishes at Martinsville Speedway over the years for an incredible 63-percent Top-10 rate at the track. Most recent outings haven't been as sharp, but Keselowski's revival in short track performance this season should point to a good finish this weekend. The veteran RFKR driver has visited the Top 10 in five of seven events on tracks one-mile in size and less in 2023. The average finish checks in at a razor sharp 11.3. We expect to see the No. 6 Ford running up front at Martinsville Speedway. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney's back is against the wall. He sits just 10 points above the cutoff to advance into the championship round at Phoenix and needing a big performance in the Xfinity 500. Fortunately, Blaney has the ability to finish well at this small oval and he's proven it in recent seasons. He has one pole position, two runner-up finishes and nine Top-10 finishes (60-percent) at Martinsville Speedway. Blaney drove the No. 12 Ford to a respectable seventh-place finish in April's NOCO 400 at Martinsville. If any of the drivers ahead of Blaney stumble Sunday, he'll want to be in good position to seize that opportunity to advance to Phoenix and race for the championship.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott is hoping to finish the season strong in advance of a much better 2024 campaign. While not racing for the championship, he does present some fantasy racing value this weekend. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a one-time Martinsville winner and his 10-career Top-10 finishes at the track check in at a strong 63-percent rate. Elliott rides a three-race Martinsville Speedway Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. This driver and team have not been world beaters on the short tracks this season, thus the sleepers list ranking this weekend. However, the 10.6 average finish across the short tracks does illustrate consistency and security from a fantasy standpoint. Elliott won't be racing for the win, but he'll be a face among the Top 10 Sunday afternoon. 

Tyler Reddick – The young driver is on the verge of Chase elimination. Reddick comes to Martinsville Speedway at 10 points behind the cutoff and Ryan Blaney. Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team need to dig deep this weekend if they want to race for the championship next round at Phoenix. The 23XI Racing driver has never been a top performer at Martinsville Speedway (just one Top 10) but he has the motivation to move mountains this Sunday. Short tracks have been a sweet spot for this driver and team in 2023. Reddick has three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for a reasonable 12.1 average finish this season on the ovals one-mile in size and less. He won't likely advance into the championship round, but we should see Reddick pull out all the stops in an attempt to do so.

Chris Buescher – Buescher grabbed an impressive win at Richmond prior to the playoffs and a very strong Top 5 at Bristol during the playoffs, so his recent short track performance has been strong. The driver of the No. 17 Ford owns 89 laps led on the small ovals this season and a reasonably good 12.6 average finish. Buescher is not a statistical monster at Martinsville Speedway, which may cause some to overlook him in weekly lineup games this week. However, his recent consistency is worth noting. Buescher has one Top 10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five Martinsville starts. That checks in at a good 15.0 average finish across the recent sample. He was Top 15 earlier this season in the NOCO 400 and we expect him to do so again in Sunday's Xfinity 500.  

Chase Briscoe – The surprise driver of this season's earlier installment at Martinsville Speedway was none other than Briscoe. The Stewart Haas Racing driver led 109 laps and finished a Martinsville career-best fifth in the NOCO 400. He now rides a three-race Martinsville Top-10 streak into this weekend as all the "tumblers" appear to have fallen in place for this young driver at this challenging short track. Briscoe and the No. 14 Ford team have had their ups-and-downs this season, but the short tracks have been a rewarding and consistent presence in their performance. He has grabbed three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on the series' short tracks in 2023. That's a great sign heading into Sunday's 500-lap battle in Virginia.

Kevin Harvick – It's difficult to believe this will be the last time we see Harvick racing at Martinsville Speedway. In his storied career, the star driver of the No. 4 Ford has gathered five grandfather clock trophies at the historic short track. One in the Cup Series, one in the Xfinity Series and three in the Craftsman Truck Series. There is little doubt that Harvick loves this small oval. As for his Cup Series career at Martinsville, the 20 Top-10 finishes he's collected come in at a reasonably good 46-percent rate in over 20 years of racing. Harvick is going to get one last go at the old gal, and we're certain he'll be racing his hardest to come away with one last Martinsville Top-10 finish.         

Aric Almirola – We tend to think of Almirola more when it comes to superspeedway and big oval performance, but he's actually been very proficient in recent seasons at Martinsville Speedway. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has grabbed Top-10 finishes at the half-mile oval in four of his last six starts and that has boosted his career Top-10 rate at this track to 28-percent. That career long record may cause some fantasy players to overlook Almirola and the No. 10 Ford team, but the recent sample of 67-percent doesn't lie and it's well ahead of his career curve at this oval. Almirola's start earlier this season at Martinsville netted an impressive third-place qualifying performance and equally impressive sixth-place finish in the NOCO 400.      

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Despite Busch's two-career Martinsville victories and stout 58-percent Top-10 rate at this short track, we're calling for the fade this weekend. The Richard Childress Racing star has had a tough time on the small ovals in 2023. Busch has just two Top-10 finishes in seven starts (29-percent) and an inflated 17.6 average finish. Those are not good looks coming into Martinsville Speedway. Busch's last short track outing was a disappointing 20th-place finish at Bristol a few weeks ago. Recent outings at the Virginia short track have been subpar. Busch has finishes of 29th- and 21st-place in his last two starts at Martinsville Speedway.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez hasn't visited the Top 10 since Talladega, and this weekend isn't likely the race that will get him back into his Top 10 ways. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has struggled this season on short tracks. Suarez has no Top-15 finishes and only two Top-20 finishes on ovals one-mile in size and less. The 23.9 average finish across this season is less than inspiring. Suarez is not a top performer at Martinsville Speedway. His 13-career starts at the track have netted only two Top-10 finishes (15-percent) and a disappointing 22.1 average finish. It's best to pass on any fantasy racing expectations for the No. 99 Chevrolet team this weekend.   

Austin Cindric – The Penske Racing youngster has been a good performer on big ovals and road circuits this season, but the short tracks have been his Achilles' heel. Cindric has no Top-20 finishes in seven starts this season (27.9 average finish). A big part of his struggles has been poor qualifying efforts (21.7 average start) which has led to difficulty in maintaining the lead lap in nearly all these short track races. As for Martinsville Speedway, Cindric's three-career starts here have netted just one Top-15 finish and a subpar 23.3 average finish. In the start earlier this season at Martinsville, Cindric struggled to a 33rd-place finish.

Michael McDowell – Short tracks have been a real bear for the veteran driver of the No. 34 Ford in 2023. McDowell has scuffled to just two Top-10 finishes for a 29-percent Top-10 rate on ovals one-mile and less in size. Martinsville Speedway has been equally disappointing for the Front Row Motorsports driver over his career. With just one Top 15 and many finishes outside the Top 25, McDowell sports a 28.5 average finish at Martinsville Speedway. In April he raced to a subpar 19th-place finish in the NOCO 400. McDowell is a shaky fantasy racing play in this ninth race of the Chase for the Cup playoffs. Keep him on the bench this week, and reconsider him the following week in Phoenix.