Xfinity 500 Preview: Prelude to the Championship

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This week we visit the circuit's shortest track to bring to an end the Round of 8 in the Chase for the Cup. The NASCAR Cup Series visits Martinsville Speedway, which is the circuit's shortest track, nestled in the foothills of Southern Virginia. After visiting superspeedways and intermediate ovals for most of the Chase, we swing to the other extreme for this week's Xfinity 500. With the big shift in racing style, the drivers had better be prepared for the surprises that the bullring at Martinsville will provide.  

Martinsville Speedway is best described as a "paperclip" shaped track for its twin 800 foot straight-aways capped with hair-pin corners banked at a modest 12 degrees. Racing at Martinsville requires mental toughness, physical stamina, and razor-sharp concentration, and that doesn't even include the durability of your equipment which takes a brutal pounding on this abusive small oval. So, survival will be the name of the game this weekend as the playoff drivers take to the short track in Southern Virginia. Martinsville Speedway demands the ultimate performance from both the driver and the car, so it is fitting that this bullring is one of the pivotal races that crowns NASCAR's champion. Some of the top contenders for this season's championship are excellent short track drivers, so we should see some real fireworks at the front of the pack this Sunday afternoon. For those playoff drivers still vying for a spot in the Championship Round of the Chase, the stakes will be very high in this 500-lap brawl. Among those are the teams of Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott. All four have been improving dramatically at the Virginia short track in recent seasons. Each driver, with the exception of Reddick, have won at Martinsville Speedway, so the possibility of that dramatic win to get into the championship round is very possible. So, this group of championship hopeful drivers are definitely in the right place at the right time this weekend to possibly secure a championship round-advancing win.

Let's take a quick look at the recent history of Martinsville Speedway. We have a select group of drivers that rise above the field on short tracks, and we expect to see them running up front on Sunday. As the loop stats will illustrate, there's a group of the usual suspects we expect to dominate short track racing at the top. Among these are Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron and Christopher Bell. This group of drivers have combined to win 13 races at this small oval. So, these guys will be among the contenders to win the Xfinity 500. In the table below are the loop stats for the last 39 races at Martinsville Speedway.

A lot has happened since the last race at Martinsville Speedway in April of this year. Parity has prevailed and we've had 16 different drivers win since that William Byron victory at Martinsville. Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher orchestrated road course wins during the Summer. Joey Logano forged three big wins between June and October to advance deep in the playoffs. Austin Dillon pulled his surprising, upset victory at Richmond Raceway in August. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. staged an underdog win most recently at Talladega in early October. Brad Keselowski was shockingly eliminated from the Chase field after the Round of 12 at the Charlotte Roval. Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott are trying desperately to stay alive in terms of the championship, so they'll be racing for the win this Sunday at Martinsville to get the ticket to Phoenix. All-in-all it has been a wild season of NASCAR racing since the last time we visited the historic Virginia short track. 

If this week's race plays out like the earlier installment at Martinsville, we should be in for some similar action. There would be good balance and parity would reign as five different drivers would share most of the time up front and in the lead. However, William Byron would rise late and subdue Chase Elliott after the final caution of the day and overtime finish. The Hendrick Motorsports star would lead 88 of the final 89 circuits of the half-mile short track and grab the thrilling half-second victory over Kyle Larson. There's good reason to believe we could see a similar scenario develop in Sunday's Xfinity 500. There were just 13 lead changes in April's Cook Out 400. Part of that was due to the reduced distance (400 vs. 500 laps) and part was due to the current short track package on the new generation car, which made passing on this challenging short track difficult. Those who qualify well again this weekend could be the drivers to watch closely as we could see a repeat of dominance at the front. We'll examine the short track specialists who thrive on small ovals like Martinsville and give you the tips that will help you win your fantasy league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson picked up career win number one at Martinsville Speedway last season, and he finished runner-up from the pole there earlier this season. Larson has three pole positions, one win, two runner-up finishes and over 250 laps led in his last six starts at Martinsville Speedway. Coming off the big disappointment at Homestead this past week, Larson will look to right the ship before Phoenix in Sunday's Xfinity 500. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been the apex predator this season on the short tracks. Larson has one victory; two runner-up finishes and six Top 5's on the small ovals in 2024. His most recent outing was a dominant performance and win at Bristol in mid-September. Larson has a great shot at winning on this small oval and taking another grandfather clock trophy this Sunday in Virginia.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney's back is against the wall and he faces elimination before the cutoff to advance into the championship round at Phoenix. He needs a win or big performance in the Xfinity 500. Fortunately, Blaney has the ability to finish well at this small oval and he's proven it in recent seasons. He won this event one season ago and he has two-career runner-up finishes at Martinsville Speedway. Blaney owns an astonishing 53-percent Top-5 rate at this Virginia short track across 17-career starts. The Penske Racing driver has a win earlier this season at Iowa, so he could be a spoiler. If any of the drivers ahead of Blaney stumble Sunday, he'll want to be in good position to seize that opportunity to advance to Phoenix and race for the championship.

William Byron – Byron is still in good shape in terms of making the Championship 4, and that's great news coming to Virginia for this round of the playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster could advance on points, but a win and automatic berth that go with it would be preferred. Byron has a pair of wins at Martinsville since 2022 and he cracks the Top-10 here at a reasonably good 54-percent rate. Short tracks have sort of been a mixed bag for the No. 24 Chevrolet team this season, however, Byron does have a win earlier in the campaign at Martinsville Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a bit inconsistent on other short tracks but based on the evidence he really seems to understand how to get around this flat, half-mile oval.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is a one-time Martinsville winner (2022) despite only having a 33-percent Top-10 rate at Martinsville Speedway. This time the stakes are higher for the No. 20 team as Bell is thick in the heat of the championship battle. He's been racing extremely well of late and contending for wins, albeit on larger ovals. Bell has been very consistent on the short tracks this season. He's accumulated two victories, 366 laps led and seven Top-10 finishes (78-percent). Bell's won earlier in the summer at Loudon and most recently he was a Top-5 finisher at Bristol. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has better short tracks in his resume, but Bell has been top notch all season long on these bullring tracks.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Coming to Martinsville, Hamlin's point standing has him in precarious position of advancing to the Championship 4. For that reason alone, he'd love to visit victory lane here again and punch his ticket automatically to the finale. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has five-career wins at Martinsville Speedway, and he's led over 2,400-career laps at the half-mile oval. A win here would lock him into the championship round at Phoenix the following week. The No. 11 Toyota team has three short track wins this season (Bristol, Richmond and Dover). He's cracked the Top 5 on short tracks this season at an amazing 56-percent rate with over 600 laps led. Hamlin is visiting one of his favorite short tracks at a very crucial time during the playoffs.

Joey Logano – The short tracks have not been good to this driver and team in 2024. However, Martinsville Speedway is a different animal and Logano loves this track. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been fast in recent Martinsville Speedway outings. Logano rides a 10-race Martinsville Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. These recent efforts have boosted his career Top-10 rate at the track to a strong 61-percent. Logano led 84 laps and scored a strong sixth-place finish in the race earlier this season at the half-mile Virginia oval. It's a good bet the veteran Penske Racing driver will stay on his Martinsville roll. He'll be a strong fantasy racing choice in Sunday's 500-lap battle.

Chase Elliott – Elliott is hoping to keep his slim championship hopes alive and turn in a strong performance at Martinsville. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a one-time Martinsville winner and his 11-career Top-10 finishes at the track check in at a strong 61-percent rate. Elliott has Top 10's in four of his last five Martinsville races heading into Sunday's action. This driver and team have been very consistent on the short tracks this season, pulling in seven Top-10 finishes in nine starts (78-percent). The 8.0 average finish across the short tracks does illustrate consistency and security from a fantasy standpoint. Elliott won't be racing for the win, but he'll be a face among the Top 10 Sunday afternoon. 

Chase Briscoe – The resume isn't long but it is quite impressive to say the least. The Stewart Haas Racing driver has seven-career Cup Series starts at Martinsville Speedway and he's fetched Top 10's in five of those starts (71-percent). He finished a steady 10th-place here in the spring and that lowered his career average finish at the Viriginia short track to a respectable 12.3. Briscoe and the No. 14 Ford team have had their ups-and-downs this season, but the short tracks have been a rewarding and consistent presence in their performance. He has grabbed four Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes on the series' short tracks in 2024. That's a great sign heading into Sunday's 500-lap battle in Virginia.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has suffered through some inconsistency this season, but the circuit's short tracks have been a bright spot. Truex is a three-time victor at this historic short track and all have come since 2019. That's a big plus for the No. 19 Toyota team. His Martinsville resume has improved dramatically of late, and Truex has led 1,063 laps at Martinsville Speedway since the 2015 season. The veteran driver has five Top-10 finishes (56-percent) on the short tracks this season and he nabbed a steady ninth-place finish at the similar flat short track in New Hampshire this summer. Truex isn't a part of the playoff picture, but he presents some fantasy value in the Xfinity 500.

Chris Buescher – Buescher doesn't have a great Martinsville Speedway history and that may lead some fantasy racing players to pick over the No. 17 Ford team, but we believe there's value there for the Xfinity 500. The veteran Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last three trips to south Virginia. The 12.3 average finish across that recent span is well below his career average finish of 18.6 at Martinsville. Short tracks have been a bit of a mixed bag for this driver and team in 2024, but the 44-percent Top-10 rate and 11.7 average finish on tracks this size is noteworthy. Buescher won't be a world-beater in this 500-lap short track battle, but he should be steady and have plenty of upside.

Bubba Wallace – The 23XI Racing veteran has finished fourth- and third-place in recent short track performances at Richmond and Bristol. That's a very good look for the No. 23 Toyota team coming into the Xfinity 500. The short tracks have been a mixed bag for Wallace this season but they're trending in the right direction coming to Martinsville Speedway. He has just three-career Top-10 finishes at this bullring, but they've all come in the last four visits. Across that span, Wallace has managed a razor sharp 8.0 average finish. Earlier this season in the Cook Out 400, the driver of the No. 23 Toyota fetched his career-best Martinsville finish of fourth-place. Those notes will come in handy this Sunday afternoon.          

Ross Chastain – It's been two years since Chastain's infamous "Hail Melon" move at Martinsville Speedway propelled him into the championship round of the playoffs that season. People won't soon forget seeing him ride the wall in turns 3 and 4 of the final lap to claim several positions before the checkered flag and race into the playoff finale. That was one of two Top-5 finishes for Chastain at this oval and he's been a Top-15 driver here ever since. He rides a three-race short track Top-10 streak into Sunday's action, so there's ample evidence that the Trackhouse Racing veteran could get back inside the Top 10 this weekend. Chastain finished 14th at Martinsville Speedway earlier this season, but we believe he could be even better in the Xfinity 500.

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports veteran's Top 10 and pole position recently at Bristol have capped a good season for the No. 48 team on the series' short tracks. Bowman is cracking the Top 10 at a good 56-percent rate this season on the bullrings. Earlier this season he qualified 10th and finished eighth-place at Martinsville Speedway in the Cook Out 400. That was one of five-career Top 10's that Bowman owns at the Martinsville short track. Most of them have come since the 2020 season. Career-wise this has not been that good a track for this veteran driver, but Bowman has generally been a Top-15 finisher at Martinsville in his last five starts, save one really bad outing. He brings value and upside to the table in this 500-lap playoff race.  

Todd Gilliland – Gilliland has just five-career starts at Martinsville Speedway, but he's been a Top-15 finisher in three of his last four starts at the half-mile paperclip. In the race earlier this season at the Martinsville oval, Gilliland drove the No. 38 Ford to a respectable 13th-place finish. In this event one year ago, he raced to his first-career Martinsville Top 10 with a 10th-place finish in that event. Short tracks have been generally up-and-down affairs for Gilliland, but Martinsville seems to be different for the young driver. He has some skill and ability that he puts on display here. He's been Top 20 in two of his last three races, so the Front Row Motorsports youngster has been driving well of late.    

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – Being a two-time winner of the grandfather clock trophy and boasting nearly 900 laps led for his career are major endorsements of Keselowski this weekend. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has collected 17 Top-10 finishes at Martinsville Speedway over the years for an incredible 59-percent Top-10 rate at the track. However, Keselowski has fallen on some hard times in more recent Martinsville outings. He's failed to crack the Top 15 in his last five starts at the historic Virginia oval, and he was a lackluster 24th-place there earlier this season. Keselowski was good in the first half of this season on the bullring tracks, but he's not cracked the Top 10 in his last three starts on the short tracks, and he has only one Top 10 in his last six short track starts.   

Kyle Busch – Despite Busch's two-career Martinsville victories and stout 55-percent Top-10 rate at this short track, we're calling for the fade this weekend. The Richard Childress Racing star has had a tough time on the small ovals in 2024. Busch has just one Top-10 finishes in nine starts (11-percent) and an inflated 21.6 average finish. Those are not good looks coming into Martinsville Speedway. Busch's last short track outing was a disappointing 25th-place finish at Bristol a few weeks ago. Recent outings at the Virginia short track have been subpar. Busch has just one Top-20 finish in his last four starts at Martinsville Speedway.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has 15-career starts at Martinsville Speedway and just two Top-10 finishes to show for, the last of those coming in 2019. The 13-percent Top-10 rate and 22.9 average finish are big warning signs. In the race there earlier this season he led 13 laps but struggled and finished a disappointing 22nd-place in the Cook Out 400. That's almost exactly in line with his career average at this Virginia bullring. Suarez has not been a world beater on the short tracks this season with just a 22-percent Top-10 rate and below desirable 18.2 average finish. This driver and team are best left on the bench this week in weekly lineup and salary cap fantasy games.

Tyler Reddick – It's a good thing that Reddick won this past weekend at Homestead and punched his ticket to Phoenix and the Championship 4. Martinsville Speedway has been a far stingier track for the 23XI Racing star. Just two of his nine-career starts at the Virginia short track have netted Top-10 finishes (22-percent) and his 19.3 average finish at the paperclip is well higher than we like to see in an "A" tier driver. Short tracks have been good, but a bit of a mixed bag this season for the No. 45 Toyota team. Reddick is hitting the Top 10 at a decent 56-percent rate on these size tracks, but he has had some recent disappearing acts like his 20th-place finish at Bristol just a few weeks ago.