This article is part of our Best Bets series.
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Watford vs. Hull City: Both teams to score and over/under 2.5 goals = YES and OVER @ +135
Saturday, 10:00 a.m.
I explained this bet in a previous article, but just as a quick refresher, this is not a parlay, this is a prop bet that requires you to correctly predict whether both teams will score or not AND the total. I love to use this bet when I am confident in both sides, as the increase in potential outcomes requires higher odds. In this case, Watford have been in poor home form, while Hull have been in poor form overall and are significantly downgraded as the visiting club. With oddsmakers placing a -170 price on the 'both halves under 1.5 goals' prop, that is the first clue that this is expected to be a high scoring affair. That seems to favor Watford, but they have yet to record a clean sheet at home and have only taken seven of a possible 15 points in matches that have gone over 2.5 goals. I am expecting a shootout here.
West Bromwich Albion vs. Manchester City: Over 2.5 @ -120
Saturday, 10:00 a.m.
Given that every single match in sport is an entirely independent event, I hate to work on the assumption that certain players or teams are "due," but this is a matchup of two clubs that are exactly that: due. City are coming off a string of disappointing performances (horrible giveaway against Southampton, horrible goalkeeping against Barcelona,
PREMIER LEAGUE (ENGLAND)
Watford vs. Hull City: Both teams to score and over/under 2.5 goals = YES and OVER @ +135
Saturday, 10:00 a.m.
I explained this bet in a previous article, but just as a quick refresher, this is not a parlay, this is a prop bet that requires you to correctly predict whether both teams will score or not AND the total. I love to use this bet when I am confident in both sides, as the increase in potential outcomes requires higher odds. In this case, Watford have been in poor home form, while Hull have been in poor form overall and are significantly downgraded as the visiting club. With oddsmakers placing a -170 price on the 'both halves under 1.5 goals' prop, that is the first clue that this is expected to be a high scoring affair. That seems to favor Watford, but they have yet to record a clean sheet at home and have only taken seven of a possible 15 points in matches that have gone over 2.5 goals. I am expecting a shootout here.
West Bromwich Albion vs. Manchester City: Over 2.5 @ -120
Saturday, 10:00 a.m.
Given that every single match in sport is an entirely independent event, I hate to work on the assumption that certain players or teams are "due," but this is a matchup of two clubs that are exactly that: due. City are coming off a string of disappointing performances (horrible giveaway against Southampton, horrible goalkeeping against Barcelona, etc.) and the madness has got to end somewhere. Pep Guardiola's teams have never gone six games without winning and this is as good a place as any to turn it around. West Brom are due for entirely different reasons: I picked them out as my best bet to get relegated in the first article of this series, and while they have been hanging on, they are playing an unsustainable brand of football. They have only scored more than one goal on one occasion, but they have only failed to score twice and face a team that sees an average of 3.75 goals per match as the visitor, which bodes well for the over.
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Toulouse vs. Lyon: Toulouse pk @ -105
Saturday, 11:00 a.m.
Lyon are a...favorite? Wait, why? This is a serious question to RotoWire bettors and if anyone has some insight I am missing that would be greatly appreciated, but for now I am just working off what I know in this league. Toulouse are not seen as an upper-echelon team because of name value, but they have earned their place near the top of the table. They have yet to drop a point at home and have done it against quality opposition: Monaco, PSG, Guingamp and Bordeaux, who are the second, third, fourth and fifth-best road teams in France, and they have all fallen in Toulouse, so I see little reason to suspect that Lyon and their poor road form can break the cycle. They have scored just five goals as the visitor, and none in their last three. To add insult to injury, they score the majority of their goals in the first half but go up against the best first-half defense in Ligue 1.
Lille vs. Paris St. Germain: Over 2.5 @ +105
Friday, 2:45 p.m.
This bet is a little bit more straightforward: any time you can get plus money on the over 2.5 goals in a match with PSG, you take it. It doesn't matter if they are on the road because this season has actually seen them be more productive outside of Paris (because why would soccer make any sense?). They haven't been hitting overs recently, but this has been a tough portion of their schedule; facing Toulouse, Bordeaux and Marseille is not a fun stretch, and though they didn't score against Marseille it was an absolutely dominant possession game. That should translate well to their matchup with Lille, who are not as strong a club as PSG's last run of opponents.
MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER (USA)
Enjoy the playoffs! I usually stay away from postseason bets due to the unpredictability of them, and soccer is no different.
SERIE A (ITALY)
Unfortunately, this is going to be a small weekend for bets in the 'major leagues' as there is nothing at all that I am interested in from Italy's wonderful league. I have a small lean on Milan to beat Pescara, but at that price with the form they have been in? No, thank you. I like Juventus and Lazio, but nowhere near the prices that oddsmakers have them at, and I am staying far away from totals and team totals after a weird few weeks. I just don't have the comfort level that I would like. Lean under with Crotone/Chiveo and over with Juventus/Napoli, and Juventus team total over if you are craving action, but I won't be on these.
LA LIGA (SPAIN)
Athletic Bilbao vs. Osasuna: Osasuna team total Over .5 = YES @ -115
Sunday, 11:15 a.m.
I was initially interested in the spread at plus money in favor of Athletic Bilbao, but I really like the price here as well and have much more confidence. There isn't much here to suggest that Osasuna won't find a way to get into the net. Even though I don't think they have much chance of winning, Osasuna are actually a much improved club when they travel. Their goals per game increases from 1.22 at home to 1.75 on the road, they have yet to be shut out on the road, and they have earned 67 percent of their points as the visitor. While Athletic Bilbao are in the top half of the home table, they surprisingly have yet to keep a home clean sheet.
Deportivo Alaves vs. Real Madrid: Alaves +2 @ -125
Saturday 10:15 a.m.
This worked out for us last week and there is no reason to fade the same situation again: this just isn't a league where you can spot decent teams a two-goal advantage before the game even starts. For all their might, Real Madrid have only covered a two-goal deficit in two of their matches (against Real Betis and Real Sociedad). Osasuna have only failed to cover a two-goal deficit on one occasion this season, and though it will be an uphill battle to get a result, it just seems as though the gap in talent is at least a little bit smaller in La Liga than it has been in years past. Given the lack of blowout wins from the major clubs, I still have major interest in all multi-goal handicaps.
AROUND THE WORLD
Australia - Newcastle Jets vs. Sydney FC: Sydney FC -1 @ +125 (Saturday 2:35am)
Australia - Western Sydney vs. Central Coast Mariners: Over 3.5 @ +100 (Saturday 4:50am)
England - Barnsley vs. Bristol City: Over 2.5 @ -125 (Saturday 10:00am)
Germany - Mainz vs. Ingolstadt: Over 2.5 @ +105 (Saturday 9:30am)
Germany - Karlsruher vs. Stuttgart: Under 2.5 @ -120 (Sunday 8:30am)
Norway - Aalesunds vs. Haugesund: Aalesunds pk @ +105 (Sunday 1:00pm)
Russia - Zenit St. Petersburg vs. Tom Tomsk: Zenit -1.5 @ -155 (Sunday 10:00am)
Scotland - Hamilton vs. Dundee: Under 2.5 @ -125 (Saturday 10:00am)
Spain - Levante vs. Getafe: Levante @ -130 (Sunday 3:00pm)
