This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
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Matchday 4 of the Champions League offers the most unique experience of the group stage with the reverse fixtures of the Matchday 3 contests. That means replays of Bayern Munich and Galatasaray, which saw seven goals scored, Manchester United on the road versus Copenhagen after skating by 1-0 at Old Trafford, as well as Newcastle United traveling to Signal Iduna Park looking for payback after the 1-0 defeat last time out.
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UCL Best Bets for Tuesday, Nov. 7
RB Leipzig -1.5 goals over Red Star Belgrade +140
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Looking at the previous fixture, Leipzig defeated Red Star 3-1 which would have paid out, though the match was played at the Red Bull Arena. Still, Leipzig also secured a two-goal victory in their clash with Young Boys. Domestically, the club sits third in the league with a goal differential of plus-18 and are tied with Bayern Munich for the fewest goals allowed in the Bundesliga. Led by goalkeeper Janis Blaswich, Leipzig have secured five clean sheets in 12 matches between the Champions League and Bundesliga.
Meanwhile, Red Star have been solid defensively in the Serbian SuperLiga with just 10 goals allowed in 11 contests, though they haven't fared as well in Europe with eight goals conceded in three matches. If you want to get creative, RB Leipzig to win 3-1 is a fantastic +900, which happens to be the final score line in their first three group stage contests.
BONUS BET: For Matchday 3, I went with Dortmund to win against Newcastle on the road at +400, which paid off with a 45th-minute strike from Felix Nmecha. I probably should double down here and stick with Dortmund on the moneyline at +170.
Julian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer -225
Manchester City are the biggest favorite to win at -1600, which doesn't come as a surprise considering they are playing at home and boast a star-studded lineup. Obviously, with those odds, the moneyline doesn't make sense and for the spread, you have to go all the way to -2.5 goals to even get close to even-money value at -145.
That said, this match makes sense to target some of the top goalscorers on the slate instead. Beginning with Julian Alvarez, who leads the team with three goals in UCL play, though in domestic competition it's Erling Haaland who sits atop the Golden Boot race with 11 goals. Alvarez will return significantly better value than Haaland with both in line to score, though the injury to Haaland means Alvarez could play more forward. If you want to grab some even better returns, you could look at Phil Foden and/or Jack Grealish, though make sure to check the starting XIs pre-match with Pep Guardiola's penchant to rotate.
UCL Best Bets for Wednesday, Nov. 8
Arsenal vs Sevilla Total Goals Over 3.5 +135
This is a tight number to to reach, but going down to over 2.5 goals is -180 and doesn't offer enough value to make it worthwhile. Arsenal are averaging 2.3 goals per game in the Premier League, while Sevilla are at 1.6 per game in La Liga. The previous matchup finished 2-1 but the two clubs combined for 21 chances created and six shots on target.
If this seems like too big of a climb for these two squads, one alternative would be both teams to score (-115). Looking at their combined matches played in Group B, there has been only one clean sheet when Arsenal defeated PSV 4-0, though that would still hit the over number. This might be a nice bet to toss into a parlay to increase your payout without too much added risk.
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Real Sociedad vs Benfica Both Teams to Score - No +100
Only two teams have yet to score a goal in the group stage, Benfica and AC Milan. Looking to domestic action, Benfica have scored just five goals in their last four Primeira Liga matches. Though Angel Di Maria is back from injury after missing the last Champions League match, which could help their goalscoring chances.
Meanwhile, Real Sociedad have conceded just once in the Champions League, including road clean sheets versus Red Bull Salzburg and Benfica. That defensive excellence hasn't been limited to European competition as they have conceded just 14 goals in 11 La Liga matches, as well. Alejandro Remiro has been fantastic in net, averaging 3.4 saves per match across his 14 appearances for the club. He also has clean sheets in five of his last eight contests while only allowing one goal to Barcelona over the weekend.
BONUS BET: Last week, I hit Napoli to win over Union Berlin on the road at -105. The moneyline won't get you any value with Napoli at home this time (-200) but the struggles for Union Berlin continue. Napoli -1.5 goals comes in at a solid +135 to keep taking advantage of Union's woes.
UCL Betting Picks Matchday 4
- RB Leipzig -1.5 goals over Red Star Belgrade +135
- Julian Alvarez Anytime Goalscorer -225
- Arsenal vs. Sevilla Total Goals Over 3.5 +130
- Real Sociedad vs. Benfica Both Teams to Score - No +100
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
