DraftKings DFS EPL Picks for Saturday, Sept. 28

DraftKings DFS EPL Picks for Saturday, Sept. 28

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MATCHES (ET)

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet

FORWARDS

Bukayo Saka (ARS vs. LEI, $9,800): Arsenal have a great home matchup against Leicester City with an implied goal total of roughly 2.50. While the Gunners have not been dominating from a fantasy point of view lately, they've dealt with one of the Premier League's more difficult schedules to open the season, and early red cards have impacted two of their games. Saka is a priority with the best open-play floor, a share of sets, penalties and a favorable matchup.

Yankuba Minteh (BHA at CHE, $4,500): Minteh might be subbed off around the 70th minute and a road trip to Chelsea isn't exactly a great situation. However, I think the matchup and minutes are more than priced in at $4,500 and I think Minteh offers enough open-play value and set-piece upside to be playable in cash games. He's averaging just under six open-play DraftKings floor points per start, and to add to that, his floor is boosted since he should split corners and free kicks with Pervis Estupinan.

Everton's Dwight McNeil ($9,000) is playable as a second forward. He's played 90 minutes in all five of his starts, averaging 14.5 floor points. I've been critical of McNeil's ceiling in the past, but his +380 goalscoring odds are decent and he already has a goal and two assists this season. 

Arsenal forwards should be popular in GPPs. Leandro Trossard ($7,400) and Gabriel Martinelli ($7,000) are sub risks, but they're still too cheap relative to their goal-scoring odds in this matchup. Chelsea are favored, but I don't think options like Noni Madueke ($9,200) or Nicolas Jackson ($9,600) will be popular at their prices. They're interesting as contrarian one-off pieces in tournaments, though Brighton are a difficult fantasy matchup.

In GPPs, I don't mind playing Jarrod Bowen ($8,200) as a one off. He has solid goal-scoring odds, takes set pieces, and West Ham go against Brentford, who aren't a dominant team. Fulham's Adama Traore ($7,200) has played 80 minutes per start this season, averaging 9.6 floor points. I like options like Traore and Bowen since they only need one goal to break 20 fantasy points. Finally, if you are looking for a cheap goal, Eddie Nketiah ($5,200) has been solid in his first two appearances with eight shots and a shot assisted.

MIDFIELDERS

Bryan Mbeumo (BRE vs. WHU, $7,100): West Ham were a great team to target for floor points last season, and despite a new manager, they lead the Premier League in floor points conceded to opponents. Brentford are dealing with injuries, but they are still slight favorites at home and they have the third best implied goal total of the slate. Mbeumo should have a split of set pieces and penalties, and he's scoring just under eight open-play floor points per start. Only Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka have better goal-scoring odds than Mbeumo (+135). 

Eberechi Eze (CRY at EVE, $8,800): Eze is priced similarly to McNeil, who is also midfield eligible. I think it's a close decision between the two, but if I had to choose one option, I prefer Eze. He's scoring 10.4 open-play floor points per game and he has resumed taking a share of Crystal Palace's set pieces. Eze only has one goal this season, but he is slightly under his expected goal total of 2.1.

Jesper Lindstrom (EVE vs. CRY, $4,600): Lindstrom scored 11.8 fantasy points in his first start for Everton, logging four shots, a shot assisted, four tackles won and a foul drawn in 61 minutes. That's an unsustainable level of output for Lindstrom, but he's scored between nine and 10 floor points per 90 minutes played in his past two seasons in Serie A and Bundesliga. Even with limited minutes, Lindstrom looks like a good option, especially if he continues to take a few free kicks. Mikkel Damsgaard ($4,700) is a similar option to Lindstrom. Damsgaard has a slightly worse floor, but he has the better matchup against West Ham and he's been playing around 80 minutes in his starts this season.

DEFENDERS

Pervis Estupinan (BHA at CHE, $5,300): Estupinan returned to the starting XI last weekend and he displaced Jack Hinshelwood on corners, splitting set pieces with Minteh. He has a good open-play floor of around eight points per 90 minutes played since joining Brighton. While he doesn't have a great matchup away from home against Chelsea, there really aren't many compelling options at defender and I don't think it's difficult to find the salary for Estupinan, either. 

Gabriel (ARS vs. LEI, $3,600): Arsenal have clean sheet odds just above 50 percent and Gabriel has goal-scoring odds of +450, best among the defender position. He should be $1,000 more expensive and there isn't much opportunity cost in playing a center-back at the defender position. Jurrien Timber ($3,300) and William Saliba ($3,200) are also too cheap. Estupinan is not a must at defender, so I think it would be viable in cash to play two cheap Arsenal defenders.

There are a couple cheap full-back options. West Ham's Emerson ($3,000) has taken set pieces the past two games, but he's still scoring less than four floor points per game. Kristoffer Ajer ($2,600) might continue deputizing at right-back for Brentford, though I wouldn't expect him to be crossing much.

If Malo Gusto ($5,800) starts, I think he's an interesting GPP option. I don't think he'll see a lot of rostership, but his floor was similar to Estupinan's last season and he showed off a ceiling with six assists. You could use Gusto as a pivot off of a popular Estupinan or you could take the contrarian route of playing two expensive defenders in tournaments.

GOALKEEPER

David Raya (ARS vs. LEI, $6,000): Raya is dealing with a thigh injury, so Neto ($5,900) may start in his place. Arsenal have much better win and clean sheet odds than any other team and it's not difficult to find the salary for Raya in cash games. I normally like to spend down at goalkeeper, but if I'm satisfied with my outfielders, I'm happy to roster the goalkeeper who is better than 50-percent likely to keep a clean sheet. 

In tournaments, I like targeting Bernd Leno ($4,500) and Alphonse Areola ($4,300). Both are slight underdogs, but their matchups are very close and I think both are slightly underpriced for their implied win probability.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jack Burkart plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: NewYorkValues, FanDuel: NewYorkValues, Yahoo: NewYorkValues.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jack Burkart
Jack covers fantasy soccer for RotoWire and has twice won the FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year award (2022 & '23). He is a Minnesota Loons fan and long-suffering Tottenham Hotspur supporter.
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