This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 10:00 am: Southampton vs. Chelsea
- 10:00 am: Watford vs. Leeds United
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Raphinha, LEE at WAT ($8,300): Saturday's three-game slate features Arsenal and Chelsea as slight favorites, but both games have relatively low implied totals. The Watford-Leeds matchup has the highest total and some appealing prices on both sides. Starting in the top range at forward, Bukayo Saka ($9,900) is the most-expensive player on the slate for Arsenal's home matchup against Brighton. He's only taken corner kicks in two of the past five games as Arsenal still haven't established a definitive set-piece taker. Gabriel Martinelli ($8,400) hasn't taken more than one in any of his last four starts and he came off the bench Monday in the disappointing loss to Crystal Palace. Floor points are likely to be more significant with the favorites in mediocre spots and no Manchester City or Liverpool to score 3-plus goals. Despite losing out on a couple corners to Jack Harrison, Raphinha has taken multiple sets in every match since Jesse Marsch was appointed. He's also the cheapest we've seen in some time as he's been priced above $9,000 most of the season. The discount doesn't make much sense with Leeds in a relatively favorable spot against 19th-place Watford.
Analyzing the goalscoring odds, they aren't what we're used to seeing as only one player is better than +150 to score. Alexandre Lacazette ($7,700) has +125 odds, which are better than I expected considering he's scored just four times in 24 league games. I'd guess the fact that he takes penalty kicks is the reason. Romelu Lukaku ($6,700) would have the next best odds at +175 and it's possible that Chelsea are playing badly enough to where he finally gets a start. Thomas Tuchel is expected to ring in the changes after his side were thrashed by Brentford and Real Madrid in the past week. While Lukaku would be a fine option for tournaments based on his cheapish salary, I'd prefer Cucho Hernandez ($6,400) in the same range. He's still taking some set pieces and has decent goal/assist upside as Watford have a 1.45 implied total at home against Leeds.
Ismaila Sarr, WAT vs. LEE ($5,300): Normally, I would've highlighted Cucho as my second forward, but Sarr's price is just way too cheap. His salary had been over $9,000 and reached as high as $10,000 prior to the injury that cost him a couple months of the season. He doesn't take set pieces but still has a nice floor for the price and as I mentioned with Cucho, Watford are in a pretty good spot on paper. Sarr almost always plays 90 minutes and he should have multiple opportunities for a goal contribution. Elsewhere in this range, Sarr's teammate Joao Pedro ($5,500) is expected to lead the line and should have a chance or two to score, as well. Moving away from Watford and looking at some other GPP options, Neal Maupay ($5,400) and Leandro Trossard ($5,200) have seen their salaries slashed for an away matchup against Arsenal, whose defense is suddenly in shambles with the injuries to Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey. Brighton have struggled of late, but they took 31 shots against Norwich last weekend and Arsenal may be ripe for the taking.
MIDFIELDERS
James Ward-Prowse, SOU vs. CHE ($9,600): Chelsea and Southampton have been on many slates together recently and that's left us with decisions between Ward-Prowse and the likes of Hakim Ziyech ($9,000) and Mason Mount ($8,400). With the two teams facing each other Saturday and Chelsea's form in question, it's hard not to favor Ward-Prowse at home. He continued his incredible season last weekend with another brilliant free kick. It was his seventh goal to go with four assists, and his floor has been as safe as ever, sending in at least 12 crosses in four of his last five games. It's possible Mount gets rested and that Ziyech gets a chance to start without him. He's much more appealing without Mount in the lineup as he's get the majority of set pieces to himself. I'd still prefer Ward-Prowse based on the higher floor and home matchup. Elsewhere, Jack Harrison ($7,400) has scored in back-to-back games and he's been taking a few corners, too. He's priced too closely to Raphinha for me but remains a viable option nonetheless, especially in tournaments.
Imran Louza, WAT vs. LEE ($4,300): Louza has actually taken the majority of Watford's set pieces in recent weeks. He doesn't have much open-play upside in more of a defensive midfield role, but he's still shown a decent floor, scoring at least 6.7 fantasy points in five consecutive games. He might be a better option for cash games than tournaments, but with Watford in a relatively favorable spot at home, he does have some assist equity to consider. Other options in this range include Ruben Loftus-Cheek ($4,500) and Saul Niguez ($4,400). One or both of them could be called upon as Tuchel shakes things up. Niguez would likely start on the left wing and he scored from there in a recent cup match.
DEFENDERS
Tariq Lamptey, BHA at ARS ($5,000): I'm writing this assuming Reece James ($7,600) doesn't start, but if he does, he's the first defender in my lineup even at that price. He'd likely take some set pieces and floor points may be more important on this slate, especially at the defender position. If he doesn't start, Lamptey has the highest floor and most upside at the position, even away to Arsenal. I doubt that Mikel Arteta will trust Nuno Tavares at left-back again, but if he does, Lamptey will be licking his chops against a mistake-prone left-back who's low on confidence. Other options in this range include Stuart Dallas ($4,700). He's still taking some corners here and there but as I mentioned last week, can't be counted on for more than five points most weeks. He's a bit more viable now that his salary is under $5,000 with Leeds in a decent spot against Watford. Kiko Femenia ($4,800) hasn't taken more than one corner kick in any of his last five games but remains a similar option to Dallas as his floor from open play is slightly higher.
Hassane Kamara, WAT vs. LEE ($4,000): I'm highlighting Kamara because none of the other defenders stand out and he's essentially the cheapest full-back. It's possible that Ben White ($3,800) starts at left-back but I'd still prefer Kamara. Not only is his floor higher but I'm almost certain to have other Watford players in my lineup and that correlation could be beneficial in tournaments. You might also be better off just pairing a cheaper center-back with the goalkeeper, as there isn't likely to be as much opportunity cost as usual at defender.
GOALKEEPERS
Fraser Forster, SOU vs. CHE ($4,100): More so than most slates, play whoever you want at keeper. Just make sure it correlates with the rest of your lineup in GPPs. Aaron Ramsdale ($5,600) and Arsenal have the best clean-sheet odds at 42 percent but as I've mentioned, it's difficult to trust the defense in its current state. The same goes for Chelsea on the road against Southampton. Both teams are likely to score in the Watford-Leeds matchup. That leaves the two cheapest keepers, Forster and Robert Sanchez ($3,900) as the remaining options. To summarize, I don't really like any of the six. Play whoever you want and good luck!
