DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday Liga MX Breakdown

MATCH PREVIEWS

Tigres at Cruz Azul (6:00 p.m. EDT)
The first match of the day is the most important in this tournament, hands down. The race for the last spot in the Liguilla comes down to this weekend and the scenarios are as follows: Cruz Azul advance with a win and lose control of their own destiny with a draw, while Tigres must win to secure their spot. While a loss here would mark this Clausura as a massive failure for either team, considering the amount of resources thrown at this tournament, there is still a chance that Pumas can sneak in and knock both teams out.

Cruz Azul is the known quantity in this situation, as they have performed essentially as expected, hanging around and challenging for a Liguilla berth. Tigres, on the other hand, have been in a shocking run of form, which is only more puzzling considering their CONCACAF Champions League win alongside their miserable Liga MX form. Speaking again in terms of DFS strategy, Tigres is actually the slight favorite to come in and get the victory but pricing is still the main issue. All historic signs of these teams in this matchup point towards a low-­scoring affair, and with so much on the line, can you really risk almost 20 percent of your salary cap on Andre-­Pierre Gignac showing up? Tigres pricing continues to be prohibitive and there are much better options on the board that make safer plays. An excellent way to diversify in tournaments is to consider what must happen for things to be improbable, and if you are betting on Tigres faltering one last time then you can certainly have a look to the Cruz Azul goaltending and defense, which should fly under the radar.

Toluca at Monterrey (8:00 p.m.)
Where many powerhouse teams are having a forgettable tournament, Monterrey has essentially dominated from start to finish. It is hard to pick a favorite going into the Liguilla, with so many teams that can potentially challenge, but a win this weekend from Monterrey would give them 40 points out of 17 games, which is a phenomenal run of form. That is not to say Toluca will roll over, as my calculations still give them a mathematical chance of a Liguilla berth. I believe it will take a multi­-goal win at Monterrey and a goalless draw at Cruz Azul, but I would put those odds at about 5,000:1. Toluca have been great at keeping the ball out of their own net, but Monterrey is a heavy favorite and a goal-scoring machine, which means I certainly will not be building lineups around Toluca's goalkeeper Alfredo Talavera or main scorers Carlo Esquivel and Enrique Triverio, but instead targeting as many Monterrey scorers as I can.

Jaguares Chiapas at Pachuca (9:06 p.m.)
There isn't much to say about this match that the statistics don't already show. Chiapas are a struggling club; this tournament has been a great failure, the management is in flux, and all players are essentially on a tryout. I will be avoiding Chiapas entirely on this slate simply because anything can happen after the start of the match. Strange rotations and unpredictable minutes are a terrible DFS combination. In GPP play, Silvio Romero can be an option depending on the slate, but with only 1,5­20 people in Liga MX GPPs, your lineups only have to be good and not groundbreaking.

Pachuca sit third in the table but still have everything to play for due to the tight seeding race. A loss could bump them down to sixth or seventh depending on other results, so expect a strong performance. Pachuca are a massive favorite and everyone is in play.

Tijuana at Atlas (9:30 p.m.)
Everyone who writes about fantasy sports always seems to have a soft spot for certain teams, and I think Atlas is my Liga MX diamond in the rough. Certainly not in terms of actual performance, as they have been simply dreadful from start to finish in this tournament and can thank only the equally terrible Dorados for extending their stay in Liga MX. In terms of pricing, however, I always like to target Atlas players due to their reputation as underperforming, when in reality they are productive on the DFS market. The pricing algorithm for this league is still very exploitable, and to further matters, Atlas are the favorite here. Tijuana haven't won in over six weeks and are hemorrhaging goals, which puts their goalkeeping out of contention and forces you to answer some difficult questions on their defense. Carlos Alberto Guzman has been a cash game staple all season long but this could certainly be time to jump off the train. His production comes when Tijuana is pushing the attack and sending in crosses, but what do they have to play for here? This could be a lethargic effort all around and his trend of single-digit performances will not pay off his price. Who you fade is just as important as who you play.

Leon at Dorados (10:00 p.m.)
As it usually seems to go, the last match of the night is not a very appealing fantasy affair. Much like Pachuca, Leon still has a lot to decide in terms of seeding for the Liguilla and are one of my favorites to make a run, but the already­-relegated Dorados have been outstanding at home to finish their Liga MX run off. In their last four home matches they have outscored opponents 9-­2 and recorded wins over quality opposition (Cruz Azul, Morelia, Santos). Leon have lots of solid options on an individual level, but are only a slight favorite to win (the best three­way odds I can find for them as of Thursday morning are 2.4 to Dorados' 2.75) and they are suffering from "Tigres Pricing Syndrome." William Yarbrough is always a top option in net, but at $4,800, he's priced him out of the stadium and your lineups, especially considering Dorados at home is looking like the new tough matchup in this league. This new and improved Dorados is an unknown quantity with roster movement though, and I am not likely to build lineups around either team in this matchup.

PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS

FORWARD

Rafael Sobis, TIJ at CRZ ($7,300): As mentioned above, this is a must-win game for Tigres and they need to attack from the first minute. An aggressive Tigres club equals a large number of crosses, shots and potential assists from Sobis. Gignac is priced out of my range on this slate, and if he does find the back of the net it will most likely be Sobis on the assist. Anything less than 90 minutes and double-digit crosses would be a failure for Tigres.

Dorlan Pabon, MNT v. TOL ($7,200): He is the only forward on the slate who can match Sobis' floor, and while you will be hard­ pressed to fit both players into one lineup, if you like a complete Tigres meltdown then Pabon makes a great pivot off Sobis in GPPs.

Franco Jara, PCH v. CHI ($5,000): Pachuca needs to keep piling on the attack and should run over Chiapas in this one, which leaves their attack man in a good spot to find the net. Jara is very goal dependent and more of a GPP play, but a good strike here will certainly diversify your lineup.

Jefferson Duque, ATL v. TIJ ($3,700): He's cheap, he plays for a bad team, and he will be low owned; what's the catch? He is scoring. Four goals in three games and favorable Atlas odds make Duque the key cog to spending up elsewhere.

MIDFIELDER

Hirving Lozano, PCH v. CHI ($6,200): While the Pachuca stack is in full effect, this price makes Lozano as close to a plug­-and­play as you can get. He has played every minute this tournament and only missed double-digit fantasy points on three occasions. Need I mention the 40+ point upside? In 20 years we can say we watched him when...

Ariel Rojas, CRZ v. TIG ($4,300): All the talk has been about Tigres needing to win, but a Cruz Azul draw would put their destiny in Pumas' hands on Sunday. Rojas has seen a huge price increase, but he will still be invaluable to the Cruz Azul attack and is a target in all forms.

Joe Corona, DOR v. LEO ($2,700): This is a tricky call and I implore you to do your own research before adding him in because his minutes have been extremely limited. However, with one game left and Corona certainly leaving, I am hoping there's a chance he gets the start, as he has said he is auditioning for either an MLS job or a return to Tijuana, who owns his contract. We need to save somewhere on this slate, but the problem is leaving such a small amount of salary this late into the night, not giving any pivot options if he doesn't get the start.

DEFENDER

Daniel Arreola, DOR v. LEO ($4,300): I talked about Guzman earlier, and the reason I am fading Arreola's partner, Jairo Gonzalez, is price­-based as well. We need savings on this slate, and Arreola offers the same floor and upside at a much cheaper price. The risk with Arreola stays the same, however: the man is a wrecking ball of a defender. Six fouls and a booking negated all of his hard work last week, but if he keeps his cool against Leon he should rebound well.

Hiram Meir, MNT v. TOL ($2,600): This is purely a clean sheet chase. The Monterrey defense is a good place to find savings and the thought is that Toluca will still press due to their status as not yet mathematically eliminated. That should give Meir some nice defensive stats and hopefully the three bonus points.

Oscar Murillo, PCH v. CHI ($2,200): Again, the strategy remains the same here as we want to target the cheapest defenders that will be on the pitch for a full 90 and can potentially hit double-digit fantasy points. A few tackles and a few interceptions plus the clean sheet bonus will more than pay off his price.

GOALKEEPER

Oscar Perez, PCH v. CHI ($4,300): In case you missed the intro, Chiapas is a team in shambles right now and they cannot score, they give up a ton of goals and they are the biggest underdog on the slate. Perez is priced appropriately, if not generously, and we should take this deal every time.

Miguel Fraga, ATL v. TIJ ($3,100): We need to find savings on this slate somewhere and if there is a midfielder or forward you absolutely cannot part with, I would not call anyone crazy for putting Fraga into a roster. Atlas are a favorite to win and Tijuana has nothing to play for. He might be forced into a few saves and should return great value in this spot. He is certainly cash game viable as well.