FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday UCL Targets

For detailed stats and odds, check out the FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Tuesday Cheat Sheet.

MATCHES (EST)

3:00 p.m: Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
3:00 p.m: Lyon v. Barcelona

FORWARDS

Lionel Messi, BAR at LYON ($14,000): This price is rarely seen at FanDuel, but it's what Messi warrants. Even with only one goal in his last league match, he still managed five shots on goal and eight chances created. Even if he doesn't score against Lyon, his floor should still hit 20 fantasy points, and while that's disappointing, that's still good enough on a two-game slate. He's averaging 2.90 shots on goal and 3.51 chances created per 90 minutes in La Liga play, and all signs point to Lyon allowing at least one goal. In fact, Lyon allowed multiple goals in four of their six group matches, including 99 total shots, one of the worst rates for any team that advanced. As for Robert Lewandowski ($12,500), he costs a ton but doesn't have the same floor and is an underdog against Liverpool, who have allowed just seven goals in 13 home matches in Premier League play.

Roberto Firmino, LIV v. BAY ($10,500): This isn't my favorite play, but on a two-game slate, you have to stretch. Liverpool are at least a favorite and usually dominate at home, including when they scored eight goals in three UCL group matches. Firmino, who is questionable because of an illness, is more of a GPP play since he could easily bust and get only five fantasy points, but he could also score a brace in this attack. If, for some reason, you fade Messi, Firmino is the logical place to turn, though don't be surprised if he doesn't make the score sheet. Some will be inclined to go with Luis Suarez ($10,000) because he's cheaper and has the third-best odds to score, but don't forget a lot of his best games came when Messi was injured. He's also in a bit of a funk with just one shot on goal in his last three starts.

Moussa Dembele, LYON v. BAR ($8,500): If you think corners are worth extra money, it makes sense to go with the more expensive Memphis Depay ($9,500). Dembele is more likely to score so there's no question in mind, especially in GPP. He has three goals in his last six appearances while Depay hasn't scored since November. Depay has a better floor with close to four chances created per match, but that usually doesn't win you lots of money. Plus, Dembele still has a decent floor from averaging 1.71 shots on goal and 1.41 chances created per 90 minutes. Bertrand Traore ($8,000) is harder to trust than both, while Ousmane Dembele ($9,000) will likely only make it 70 or so minutes after recently returning from injury.

MIDFIELDERS

James Rodriguez, BAY at LIV ($8,500): This is an ugly slate for midfielders, as seen in this selection. Rodriguez has started the last three matches in league play, and with Thomas Muller suspended, he should make it close to 80 minutes. His role on set pieces is the main reason to consider him, as he is averaging 1.39 shots on goal and 3.80 chances created per 90 minutes in Bundesliga play. The matchup is difficult, but Liverpool already gave up a few goals at home against PSG in the group stage and aren't unstoppable in the back. Mohamed Salah ($10,500) will be popular since he is cheaper compared to when he's on a Premier League slate, but this feels like a goal-or-bust situation. He managed just 9.9 total fantasy points in two matches against PSG and likely won't produce much if he doesn't make the score sheet against Bayern. If you want to back Liverpool, Sadio Mane ($9,500) has four goals on seven shots on target and four chances created in his last four starts.

Houssem Aouar, LYON v. BAR ($7,500): Aouar's UCL average is a bit juiced due to three assists, but he's had a floor of at least 10 fantasy points throughout the season with added help from attacking stats. He averages 2.60 shots and 1.34 chances created per 90 minutes in league play, and that's the main reason to consider him over fellow defensive midfielder Lucas Tousart ($7,000). If you want to play things a little safer, Tousart has lower upside but often has a better floor because of more consistent defensive stats, averaging 4.38 tackles and a combined 2.62 interceptions and clearances per 90 minutes in Ligue 1. There's nothing pretty about these midfielders, but that's what you're looking at if you don't want to spend on one of the Liverpool guys, especially with Nabil Fekir suspended.

Sergio Busquets, BAR at LYON ($5,500): If you have Messi and want a safe 10 points, Busquets is the way to go. He even showed a floor of 16.4 fantasy points a couple times in group stages, one coming at Tottenham. That's the hope in this spot since he's not someone with upside in his defensive role, and he had at least 9.5 fantasy points in every UCL match he started. The more popular play may be Kingsley Coman ($6,500), but he'll be hard to trust in cash games since he's dealing with an ankle injury and probably won't make the full 90. Of course, Coman's upside is much higher than Busquets after scoring a brace with an assist last league match.

DEFENDERS

Mats Hummels, BAY at LIV ($6,000): These aren't the type of matches I'd spend up for an attacking defender, so Hummels makes the most sense and comes at a reasonable price. His floor was 16.7 fantasy points in the group stage, as he averaged 3.76 tackles and 3.01 clearances per 90 minutes. That's perfect in this matchup, as Liverpool forced the most tackles in the group stage and are tied for the most in the Premier League. Jordi Alba ($7,000) doesn't have much of a floor, while Joshua Kimmich ($6,500) likely won't create a ton of chances, keeping his floor around 10 points.

Clement Lenglet, BAR at LYON ($5,000): Lenglet was on the bench this past weekend, but the good news is that he was healthy enough to make the roster. If he starts, his floor is a couple points better than Gerard Pique at the same price. Neither defender is that exciting with a floor near 10 fantasy points, but Lenglet has been more useful when competition picks up, while most of Pique's added value comes from scoring. In three UCL matches, Lenglet had a floor of at least 16.9 fantasy points, helped by huge tackle numbers and a few shots on goal against Inter. The hope in this lineup is that Messi scores early and then Lyon are in full attack mode for the majority of the contest, similar to what Tottenham did in their final group match.

Jeremy Morel, LYON v. BAR ($4,000): Since none of these defenders have consistent floors, it wouldn't be a bad strategy to back both Lyon guys at $4,000. Leo Dubois looks like the safer pick because he attacks on the flank in league play, but that probably won't be available to him against Barcelona. Morel, who had seven clearances in his lone UCL start, should be good for 10 fantasy points through a variety of clearances, tackles, interceptions and blocks. However, don't get too excited because while Barcelona will be in the attack a lot, they don't often lose the ball and rarely force many clearances. Morel is an option because he's cheap and fits in a roster with Messi, but don't expect much.

GOALKEEPER

Alisson, LIV v. BAY ($5,000): Since I'm not backing any Bayern forwards, Alisson is the easiest play as the favorite in the match with the lower implied goal total. The other part is that Bayern haven't had many difficult matches in the Bundesliga or Champions League, so it's hard to translate those numbers into this game. Beating up Benfica, AEK Athens and Ajax isn't the same as going to Anfield. Also, Alisson made enough saves to hold fantasy value when he allowed two goals in the two matches against PSG. If you're all-in on Barcelona, Marc-Andre ter Stegen ($6,000) is the most expensive goalkeeper, but he also has eight clean sheets in his last 11 starts.