This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Almost every bet I hit last week was a corners bet. Fortunately, I do a separate show called Corners & Wagers which is only corners bets. Even better, I made three corners bets on Kits & Wagers. Enjoy.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners. He provides four corners bets this week.
Record: 20-19. Up $186 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Leicester City at Brentford
SGP: Brentford double chance + both teams to score -115
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After losing my Brentford bet at Everton last week (both teams to score), I'm riding my bread-and-butter play again with the Bees at home. Brentford have always been one of the better teams at home under Thomas Frank and that won't change in this spot.
My initial worry is that Leicester City may have a new-manager bump after sacking Steve Cooper on Monday. That doesn't take away from the Foxes still having an inferior squad, but I think they get some kind of bump for trying to impress a new manager (likely Ruud van Nistelrooy). Given Brentford's inability to keep clean sheets, I think this could be set for another high-scoring, back-and-forth contest.
EPL Best Bets for Ipswich Town at Nottingham Forest
SGP: Nottingham Forest double chance + under 2.5 goals +135
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I went back and forth on this one because both teams have been a bit unreliable to bet on. I initially liked Ipswich corners and race to five is close to +300 odds, but this is a tough spot, especially away from home.
Forest have been one of the best in the league at limiting great opportunities and when they've played weaker teams, that's resulted in low-scoring contests. I'm hoping to sneak away with a 1-1 or 2-0 type of result with it possibly depending on the status of Morgan Gibbs-White and/or Elliot Anderson. Unsurprisingly, Forest are a worse team without two of their more creative players and Anthony Elanga also picked up a knock last game. With James Ward-Prowse and Ryan Yates pulling the strings last week, albeit at Arsenal, they totaled seven shots and .33 xG.
I'll still hope Forest are strong enough in the back that they won't lose this game, but I think it'll be a mostly cagey contest in which each team struggles to get consistently good looks in front of net.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle at Crystal Palace
SGP: Newcastle double chance + under 3.5 goals +100
I had Newcastle moneyline, but they burned me against West Ham and I don't want to bet on it without knowing the status of Eberechi Eze. The Magpies get Dan Burn back from suspension, which should do wonders after Lloyd Kelly was partly at fault for both goals allowed to West Ham last match.
I also like the under because of how Newcastle play, so it's another classic SGP. Palace have had some weird games lately, 2-2 results against both Wolves and Villa. Yet, Newcastle usually play with more control than either of those sides and I can't envision this one ending 2-2 unless Palace snatch a couple more goals on the counter.
EPL Best Bets for Arsenal at West Ham United
Arsenal win to nil against West Ham +180
Can Arsenal keep it going? I think they can. Assuming Gabriel isn't out, the Gunners are edging closer to 100 percent and that's reason enough to like them in this spot. West Ham have some confidence and Julen Lopetegui finally moved Lucas Paqueta to a deeper position, but I'm not sure they have the same success in this spot.
Despite winning 2-0 at Newcastle, they still didn't possess the ball overly well and capitalized on two mistakes by a backup center-back. Maybe playing at home gives them another boost, but Arsenal will make life difficult for a West Ham team that still struggles to advance the ball through passing.
I think Sporting's attack is more dangerous than West Ham's and they managed 1.05 xG from 19 shots Tuesday. Expect about 10-12 shots from the Hammers in this spot which may lead to less than one xG unless they get some great looks on the counter.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 13
- SGP: Brentford double chance + both teams to score -115
- SGP: Nottingham Forest double chance + under 2.5 goals +135
- SGP: Newcastle double chance + under 3.5 goals +100
- Arsenal win to nil against West Ham +180
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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