This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The festive schedule is heating up which means to be on the lookout for lineup rotation. In case you need to put your bets in before lineups are out, be wary of any regular player being removed from the starting XI because of the influx of matches.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners.
Record: 27-26. Up $235 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Ipswich Town
Ipswich double chance against Newcastle +110
I think the oddsmakers are giving too much respect to Newcastle away from home and not enough to Ipswich at home. Ipswich have been extremely hot and cold with their performances, but they've shown enough stability in the past month to take them in this spot.
Not having Liam Delap hurts, though I think they have enough creative players to inflict pain on the Newcastle back line, led by Omari Hutchinson. Also going into this is that Newcastle didn't rotate in midweek Cup play and they've been mostly infuriating on the road outside of the win at Nottingham Forest.
This has the makings of a dead game in which neither side has great chances, though that's not enough for me to take under 2.5 goals at +125. I think it's still a 1-1 type of match, so I'll ride with Ipswich double chance.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Everton
Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Chelsea +125
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Chelsea are maybe the most in-form team in the league, winning eight straight in all competitions. Everton have been the best defensive group, though they're struggling to score themselves. Also, they've had a favorable run of matches at home with their hardest matchup of the season possibly being Newcastle. In that game, they had two shots from inside the box and took zero corners while allowing 2.05 xG and 10 corners in a 0-0 draw.
There's always a chance Everton open this match with life and attack early, hoping for an opening goal. However, that flurry may only last five or 10 minutes. Dwight McNeil isn't 100 percent and it's hard to see them going blow for blow with this Chelsea side. While they could again defend for their lives and get a scoreless draw, I can't see them preventing Chelsea from getting opportunities, which leads to corners.
If Chelsea struggle to get a first-half goal, I think it's in play for them to rack up 10-plus corners. Of course, if they score multiple goals in the first half, the corners bet is dead. I'm riding Everton's back line to keep it low scoring and to lead to corners.
If this were at Stamford Bridge, I wouldn't play the under, but at Goodison Park, I still believe in this Everton defense.
EPL Best Bets for AFC Bournemouth at Manchester United
Bournemouth double chance at Man United -110
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Bournemouth have played the top teams tough this season but struggled against mid-table ones where they have to possess the ball more. At Man United, it's likely they'll play more on the counter and their ball-winning press could be troublesome in this matchup.
It's a bit surprising United are -115 (was -125) to win since they haven't really played a great game under Ruben Amorim. They somehow grabbed three points in last week's derby and were outplayed by Nottingham Forest in their last home match.
This feels like a spot where Bournemouth will have the better chances and United fans will be worrying all match about why their team doesn't look that good. Amad Diallo or Bruno Fernandes will probably spring a few good opportunities, but I kind of like the Cherries midfield a little more with mainstays Lewis Cook and Ryan Christie. Similar to the Forest game and even the one at Ipswich Town, this United team doesn't have a noticeable edge on the pitch.
At close to even odds, Bournemouth double chance is the play.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Leicester City
SGP: Wolves double chance + both teams to score +120
Wolves were kind of a dumpster fire the last couple weeks and Gary O'Neil's sacking has been inevitable. I still have doubts about the overall talent in this squad, but the same can be said for Leicester, who have allowed more than 70 shots in Ruud van Nistelrooy's three games in charge.
This bet is a bit of new manager bump and a bit of Leicester possibly being overrated, especially without Wilfred Ndidi in the midfield. Wolves players should have a bit of motivation under Vitor Pereira and it should mean more life than prior games. Not having Rayan Ait-Nouri because of suspension doesn't help, but Matheus Cunha is still the best player on the pitch and sometimes that's all you need in a relegation battle.
While a lot of relegation matchups end low scoring because neither team wants to lose the match, I think the new manager bump changes that. I expect Wolves to come out with some life and push to get an opening goal which in turn will open things up for two of the worst back lines in the league.
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EPL Betting Picks Matchday 17: Sunday, Dec. 22
- Ipswich double chance against Newcastle +110
- Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Chelsea +125
- Bournemouth double chance at Man United -110
- SGP: Wolves double chance + both teams to score +120
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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